VIPS Stock Analysis: Vipshop Holdings | NYSE
Internet Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.863m USD | 12M Return: -33% | US92763W1036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 34.7M
EPS Trend: -67.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -24.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE: VIPS) is a Chinese consumer discretionary company in the broadline retail sub-industry, operating online platforms and offline retail channels. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Guangzhou, the company runs through three segments-Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others-and sells an extensive range of products including apparel, sportswear, baby and childrens items, footwear and bags, beauty products, home goods, and supermarket products. Beyond its core marketplace operations, the firm also engages in warehousing, retail, product procurement, and software development and IT support. Its branded merchandise is distributed through its vip.com and vipshop.com online platforms as well as physical retail stores.
Vipshop operates within Chinas highly competitive e-commerce sector, which is one of the largest digital retail markets globally. The companys diversified model-combining online flash-sale-style platforms, outlet retail, and back-end logistics and technology services-reflects the broader trend of integrated online-to-offline commerce strategies used by Chinese broadline retailers.
- Active users and order frequency drive Vip.com GMV growth
- Pinduoduo and Douyin competition pressures discount retail margins
- China consumption rebound lifts apparel and cosmetics category sales
| Net Income: 10.3b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.14% < 20% (prev 6.99%; Δ 2.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 7.45b > Net Income 10.3b |
| Net Debt (-20.7b) to EBITDA (16.6b): -1.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (488.1m) vs 12m ago -4.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.47% > 18% (prev 23.33%; Δ 0.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 131.8% > 50% (prev 144.0%; Δ -12.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 46.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 15.2b / Interest Expense TTM 326.4m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 43.8b - Total Current Liabilities 34.2b) / Total Assets 85.9b |
| B: 0.57 (Retained Earnings 48.6b / Total Assets 85.9b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 15.2b / Avg Total Assets 79.7b) |
| D: 1.20 (Book Value of Equity 45.0b / Total Liabilities 37.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.12 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.37 (Receivables 6.00b/4.42b, Revenue 105b/106b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 23.33% / 23.47%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 105b / 106b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 10.3b - CFO 7.45b) / TA 85.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.90 with a total of 2,773,867 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.62%, over one month by +3.12%, over three months by -6.86% and over the past year by -32.96%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.40 (which is 3.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Vipshop Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.81. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VIPS.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 16.7 | 29.4% |
Market Cap CNY = 39.2b (5.86b USD * 6.692 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 3.9774
P/E Forward = 5.385
P/S = 0.0558
P/B = 0.8754
P/EG = 0.7901
Revenue TTM = 105b CNY
EBIT TTM = 15.2b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 16.6b CNY
Long Term Debt = 554.7m CNY (estimated: total debt 11.6b - short term 11.0b)
Short Term Debt = 11.0b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.2b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 600.7m
Net Debt = -20.7b CNY (calculated: Debt 12.2b - CCE 32.9b)
Enterprise Value = 18.5b CNY (39.2b + Debt 12.2b - CCE 32.9b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.61 (Ebit TTM 15.2b / Interest Expense TTM 326.4m)
EV/FCF = 3.44x (Enterprise Value 18.5b / FCF TTM 5.39b)
FCF Yield = 29.06% (FCF TTM 5.39b / Enterprise Value 18.5b)
FCF Margin = 5.13% (FCF TTM 5.39b / Revenue TTM 105b)
Net Margin = 9.81% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Revenue TTM 105b)
Gross Margin = 23.47% ((Revenue TTM 105b - Cost of Revenue TTM 80.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.60% (prev 24.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.22 (Enterprise Value 18.5b / Total Assets 85.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.68% (Interest Expense 326.4m / Debt 12.2b)
Taxrate = 32.05% (4.74b / 14.8b)
NOPAT = 10.3b (EBIT 15.2b * (1 - 32.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 43.8b / Total Current Liabilities 34.2b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 12.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 45.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.24 (Net Debt -20.7b / EBITDA 16.6b)
Debt / FCF = -3.84 (Net Debt -20.7b / FCF TTM 5.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 41.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.93% (Net Income 10.3b / Total Assets 85.9b)
RoE = 24.62% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Total Stockholder Equity 41.9b)
RoCE = 35.85% (EBIT 15.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 41.9b + L.T.Debt 554.7m))
RoIC = 18.00% (NOPAT 10.3b / Invested Capital 57.4b)
WACC = 7.61% (E(39.2b)/V(51.4b) * Re(9.41%) + D(12.2b)/V(51.4b) * Rd(2.68%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 9.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.39 | Cagr: -5.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.00% ; FCFF base≈5.46b ; Y1≈5.33b ; Y5≈5.35b
[DCF] Fair Price = 262.6 (EV 83.7b - Net Debt -20.7b = Equity 104b / Shares 397.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -3.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.09 | EPS CAGR: -15.48% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -24.34 | Revenue CAGR: -0.45% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=+2.25% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.38 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=-84% | GrowthEPS=-21.7% | GrowthRev=-2.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.86 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=-71% | GrowthEPS=+26.1% | GrowthRev=+0.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -87% (up=1, down=34)