VIPS Stock Analysis: Vipshop Holdings | NYSE
Internet Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.311m USD | 12M Return: -8.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.3M
EPS Trend: -33.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -31.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vipshop Holdings Limited is a China-based online retailer headquartered in Guangzhou and listed on the NYSE under the ticker VIPS. Founded in 2008, the company operates through three reported segments: Vip.com, Shan Shan Outlets, and Others, and sells a broad assortment of merchandise including womenswear, menswear, sportswear, baby and childrens products, footwear and bags, skincare and cosmetics, home goods, and supermarket items. Beyond its core marketplace platforms (vipshop.com and vip.com), the company runs physical retail outlets and supports its operations with in-house warehousing, product procurement, and software/IT development activities.
The business sits within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS sub-industry: Broadline Retail) and competes in Chinas highly competitive e-commerce landscape. Vipshop is historically associated with the flash sale or online discount retail model, originally built around time-limited promotions of branded apparel and lifestyle goods, before expanding into broader category coverage and offline outlets through acquisitions such as Shan Shan Outlets.
- China discount retail GMV growth decelerates amid weak consumer spending
- Active customer growth on Vip.com platform drives apparel and cosmetics revenue
- Intensifying competition from Pinduoduo and Douyin pressures discount retail market share
| Net Income: 7.49b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.81% < 20% (prev 7.62%; Δ 0.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 7.45b > Net Income 7.49b |
| Net Debt (-23.1b) to EBITDA (11.1b): -2.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (492.7m) vs 12m ago -5.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.44% > 18% (prev 23.36%; Δ 0.08% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 137.6% > 50% (prev 143.5%; Δ -5.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 90.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 9.70b / Interest Expense TTM 107.1m) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 39.9b - Total Current Liabilities 31.6b) / Total Assets 79.6b |
| B: 0.61 (Retained Earnings 48.6b / Total Assets 79.6b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 9.70b / Avg Total Assets 77.1b) |
| D: 1.17 (Book Value of Equity 41.1b / Total Liabilities 35.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.75 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.35 (Receivables 1.47b/4.20b, Revenue 106b/107b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 23.36% / 23.44%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 106b / 107b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 7.49b - CFO 7.45b) / TA 79.6b) |
| Beneish M = -3.51 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.26 with a total of 2,267,185 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.63%, over one month by -8.55%, over three months by -7.93% and over the past year by -8.36%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.70 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Vipshop Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VIPS.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | 43.1% |
Market Cap CNY = 42.8b (6.31b USD * 6.7891 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 6.0
P/E Forward = 5.1073
P/S = 0.0594
P/B = 1.039
P/EG = 0.7401
Revenue TTM = 106b CNY
EBIT TTM = 9.70b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 11.1b CNY
Long Term Debt = 562.2m CNY (estimated: total debt 7.14b - short term 6.58b)
Short Term Debt = 6.58b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.75b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 608.8m
Net Debt = -23.1b CNY (calculated: Debt 7.75b - CCE 30.8b)
Enterprise Value = 19.8b CNY (42.8b + Debt 7.75b - CCE 30.8b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 90.56 (Ebit TTM 9.70b / Interest Expense TTM 107.1m)
EV/FCF = 3.67x (Enterprise Value 19.8b / FCF TTM 5.39b)
FCF Yield = 27.27% (FCF TTM 5.39b / Enterprise Value 19.8b)
FCF Margin = 5.08% (FCF TTM 5.39b / Revenue TTM 106b)
Net Margin = 7.06% (Net Income TTM 7.49b / Revenue TTM 106b)
Gross Margin = 23.44% ((Revenue TTM 106b - Cost of Revenue TTM 81.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.44% (prev 22.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 19.8b / Total Assets 79.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.38% (Interest Expense 107.1m / Debt 7.75b)
Taxrate = 19.05% (1.81b / 9.49b)
NOPAT = 7.85b (EBIT 9.70b * (1 - 19.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.26 (Total Current Assets 39.9b / Total Current Liabilities 31.6b)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 7.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.08 (Net Debt -23.1b / EBITDA 11.1b)
Debt / FCF = -4.28 (Net Debt -23.1b / FCF TTM 5.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 40.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.72% (Net Income 7.49b / Total Assets 79.6b)
RoE = 18.50% (Net Income TTM 7.49b / Total Stockholder Equity 40.5b)
RoCE = 23.61% (EBIT 9.70b / Capital Employed (Equity 40.5b + L.T.Debt 562.2m))
RoIC = 15.91% (NOPAT 7.85b / Invested Capital 49.3b)
WACC = 7.54% (E(42.8b)/V(50.6b) * Re(8.70%) + D(7.75b)/V(50.6b) * Rd(1.38%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.66 | Cagr: -5.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.00% ; FCFF base≈5.46b ; Y1≈5.33b ; Y5≈5.35b
[DCF] Fair Price = 265.4 (EV 83.7b - Net Debt -23.1b = Equity 107b / Shares 402.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -3.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -33.85 | EPS CAGR: -4.91% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -31.91 | Revenue CAGR: -0.62% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.26 | Chg30d=-2.63% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.32 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+1.4% | GrowthRev=+0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=18.40 | Chg30d=-0.98% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62%