VIST Stock Analysis: Vista Oil Gas | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.727m USD | 12M Return: 35.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 54.4M
EPS Trend: -30.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: VIST) is a Latin America-focused independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company. Its core asset is located in the Vaca Muerta play within Argentinas Neuquina Basin - one of the worlds largest unconventional shale reserves - and it also holds producing assets in Mexico. Beyond production, the company conducts drilling and workover operations in Argentina. Vista was incorporated in 2017, listed on the NYSE in 2019, and is headquartered in Mexico City. As an upstream pure-play, its financial performance is closely tied to crude oil and natural gas prices, production volumes, and the regulatory environment in Argentina and Mexico.
- Vaca Muerta output growth drives revenue expansion
- Argentina peso volatility pressures dollar-denominated debt servicing
- Brent crude price swings directly impact realized revenues
| Net Income: 746.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -13.96% < 20% (prev -5.67%; Δ -8.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 657.7m > Net Income 746.3m |
| Net Debt (3.28b) to EBITDA (1.64b): 2.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (110.3m) vs 12m ago 9.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.37% > 18% (prev 57.00%; Δ -7.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.67% > 50% (prev 39.45%; Δ 8.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 792.0m / Interest Expense TTM 215.4m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 1.76b) / Total Assets 7.72b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 1.95b / Total Assets 7.72b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 792.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.10b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 2.60b / Total Liabilities 5.12b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.88 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.52 (Receivables 619.7m/247.6m, Revenue 2.91b/1.77b) |
| GMI: 1.15 (GM 57.00% / 49.37%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.64 (Revenue 2.91b / 1.77b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 746.3m - CFO 657.7m) / TA 7.72b) |
| Beneish M = -2.03 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.25 with a total of 1,746,482 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.27%, over one month by -11.78%, over three months by -0.53% and over the past year by +35.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 60.20 (which is 7.7% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Vista Oil Gas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VIST.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 97.3 | 49.1% |
P/E Trailing = 8.7988
P/E Forward = 12.5
P/S = 2.3189
P/B = 2.6876
Revenue TTM = 2.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 792.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.64b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.07b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 128.5m
Net Debt = 3.28b USD (calculated: Debt 3.90b - CCE 617.5m)
Enterprise Value = 10.0b USD (6.73b + Debt 3.90b - CCE 617.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.68 (Ebit TTM 792.0m / Interest Expense TTM 215.4m)
EV/FCF = -11.74x (Enterprise Value 10.0b / FCF TTM -852.6m)
FCF Yield = -8.52% (FCF TTM -852.6m / Enterprise Value 10.0b)
FCF Margin = -29.31% (FCF TTM -852.6m / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Net Margin = 25.66% (Net Income TTM 746.3m / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Gross Margin = 49.37% ((Revenue TTM 2.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.61% (prev 63.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 10.0b / Total Assets 7.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.53% (Interest Expense 215.4m / Debt 3.90b)
Taxrate = 26.58% (270.2m / 1.02b)
NOPAT = 581.5m (EBIT 792.0m * (1 - 26.58%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 1.76b)
Debt / Equity = 1.50 (Debt 3.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.00 (Net Debt 3.28b / EBITDA 1.64b)
Debt / FCF = -3.85 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 3.28b / FCF TTM -852.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.41b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.23% (Net Income 746.3m / Total Assets 7.72b)
RoE = 30.96% (Net Income TTM 746.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.41b)
RoCE = 15.73% (EBIT 792.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.41b + L.T.Debt 2.62b))
RoIC = 8.45% (NOPAT 581.5m / Invested Capital 6.88b)
WACC = 6.57% (E(6.73b)/V(10.6b) * Re(8.02%) + D(3.90b)/V(10.6b) * Rd(5.53%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.57 | Cagr: 4.77%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -852.6m)
EPS Correlation: -30.49 | EPS CAGR: -9.65% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.34 | Revenue CAGR: 41.78% | SUE: 0.88 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=66.97 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=75.41 | Chg30d=-0.15% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=191.78 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+237.7% | GrowthRev=+78.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=184.71 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-3.7% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)