VIST Stock Analysis: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.149m USD | 12M Return: 89.6% | US92837L1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 74.4M
EPS Trend: -39.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: VIST) is a Mexico-based independent energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and gas across Latin America. Its principal asset is located in the Vaca Muerta play within Argentinas Neuquina basin, a region recognized as one of the worlds most significant unconventional hydrocarbon resources, particularly known for its shale oil and gas potential. The company also holds producing assets in Mexico and conducts drilling and workover activities in Argentina.
Originally incorporated in 2017 as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V., the company rebranded to its current name in April 2022 and went public on the NYSE in July 2019. Classified within the Energy sector under the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, Vista operates as a mid-cap E&P pure-play, with its strategic emphasis on Argentina positioning it to benefit from the countrys growing shale development.
- Vaca Muerta shale production growth drives oil output higher
- Brent crude price swings directly impact realized prices and margins
- Argentina peso devaluation and Milei reforms shape capital allocation
| Net Income: 844.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -14.05% < 20% (prev -45.83%; Δ 31.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 1.65b > Net Income 844.0m |
| Net Debt (3.24b) to EBITDA (1.91b): 1.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.69 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.5m) vs 12m ago 5.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.62% > 18% (prev 54.76%; Δ -2.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.96% > 50% (prev 32.69%; Δ 13.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 970.6m / Interest Expense TTM 226.2m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 1.11b - Total Current Liabilities 1.61b) / Total Assets 9.31b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 2.12b / Total Assets 9.31b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 970.6m / Avg Total Assets 7.69b) |
| D: 0.58 (Book Value of Equity 3.34b / Total Liabilities 5.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.85 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.57 (Receivables 455.2m/451.0m, Revenue 3.53b/1.98b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 54.76% / 52.62%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.78 (Revenue 3.53b / 1.98b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 844.0m - CFO 1.65b) / TA 9.31b) |
| Beneish M = -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.43 with a total of 746,475 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.12%, over one month by -13.75%, over three months by +5.48% and over the past year by +89.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 61.00 (which is 6.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VIST.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 91.8 | 40.3% |
P/E Trailing = 8.5039
P/E Forward = 6.2735
P/S = 2.0281
P/B = 2.3299
Revenue TTM = 3.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 970.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.91b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 731.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 93.2m
Net Debt = 3.24b USD (calculated: Debt 3.85b - CCE 607.6m)
Enterprise Value = 10.4b USD (7.15b + Debt 3.85b - CCE 607.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.29 (Ebit TTM 970.6m / Interest Expense TTM 226.2m)
EV/FCF = 75.21x (Enterprise Value 10.4b / FCF TTM 138.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.33% (FCF TTM 138.1m / Enterprise Value 10.4b)
FCF Margin = 3.91% (FCF TTM 138.1m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Net Margin = 23.89% (Net Income TTM 844.0m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Gross Margin = 52.62% ((Revenue TTM 3.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.36% (prev 54.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.12 (Enterprise Value 10.4b / Total Assets 9.31b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.88% (Interest Expense 226.2m / Debt 3.85b)
Taxrate = 28.21% (331.6m / 1.18b)
NOPAT = 696.8m (EBIT 970.6m * (1 - 28.21%))
Current Ratio = 0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.11b / Total Current Liabilities 1.61b)
Debt / Equity = 1.15 (Debt 3.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.69 (Net Debt 3.24b / EBITDA 1.91b)
Debt / FCF = 23.46 (Net Debt 3.24b / FCF TTM 138.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.98% (Net Income 844.0m / Total Assets 9.31b)
RoE = 31.10% (Net Income TTM 844.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.71b)
RoCE = 17.09% (EBIT 970.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.71b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 8.44% (NOPAT 696.8m / Invested Capital 8.25b)
WACC = 5.89% (E(7.15b)/V(11.0b) * Re(6.79%) + D(3.85b)/V(11.0b) * Rd(5.88%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 92.91 | Cagr: 6.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈138.1m ; Y1≈138.7m ; Y5≈146.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.29b - Net Debt 3.24b = -954.9m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -39.26 | EPS CAGR: -12.40% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.53 | Revenue CAGR: 50.68% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=48.56 | Chg30d=-6.78% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=158.65 | Chg30d=-3.03% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+179.3% | GrowthRev=+70.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=178.28 | Chg30d=-0.33% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+12.4% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)