VIST Stock Analysis: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | NYSE

Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.918m USD | 12M Return: 27.7% | US92837L1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Drilling Services, Workover Services
Total Rating 54
Safety 68
Buy Signal -1.40
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -27.4
Market Cap: 7.92B
Avg Turnover: 58.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility59.9%
VaR 5th Pctl10.3%
VaR vs Median3.78%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Rel. Str. IBD41.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group29.1 pctl
Character TTM
Beta0.266
Beta Downside0.215
Hurst Exponent0.525
Choppyness73.2%
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD43.36%
CAGR/Max DD0.81
CAGR/Mean DD2.86
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of VIST over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 1.01, "2021-12": 0.38, "2022-03": 3.35, "2022-06": 21.77, "2022-09": 18.27, "2022-12": 0.76, "2023-03": 23.8, "2023-06": 10.32, "2023-09": 14.99, "2023-12": 42.98, "2024-03": 0.5, "2024-06": 12.5, "2024-09": 10.98, "2024-12": 4.6994, "2025-03": 15.53, "2025-06": 10.25, "2025-09": 27.27, "2025-12": 0.815, "2026-03": 15.56, "2026-06": 2.38, "2026-09": 2.16,
EPS CAGR: -25.34%
EPS Trend: -64.3%
Last SUE: -0.08
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of VIST over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 175.005, 2021-12: 196.004, 2022-03: 207.92, 2022-06: 294.293, 2022-09: 333.573, 2022-12: 303.213, 2023-03: 303.213, 2023-06: 239.628, 2023-09: 302.76, 2023-12: 317.352, 2024-03: 317.352, 2024-06: 396.715, 2024-09: 462.383, 2024-12: 471.318, 2025-03: 438.456, 2025-06: 610.542, 2025-09: 706.135, 2025-12: 727.029909, 2026-03: 865.012, 2026-06: 1234.902, 2026-09: 1294.97,
Rev. CAGR: 58.26%
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Last SUE: 2.75
Qual. Beats: 3

Warnings

Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 7.2 years of data

Jan +1.1% 15
Feb +3.7% 18
Mar -0.6% 0
Apr -2.6% 38
May +0.8% 15
Jun -8.0% 21
Jul +9.6% 8
Aug -3.5% 6
Sep -8.8% 26
Oct +8.6% 20
Nov +1.9% 0
Dec -0.9% 18

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: VIST) is a Mexico-based independent energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and gas across Latin America. Its principal asset is located in the Vaca Muerta play within Argentinas Neuquina basin, a region recognized as one of the worlds most significant unconventional hydrocarbon resources, particularly known for its shale oil and gas potential. The company also holds producing assets in Mexico and conducts drilling and workover activities in Argentina.

Originally incorporated in 2017 as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V., the company rebranded to its current name in April 2022 and went public on the NYSE in July 2019. Classified within the Energy sector under the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, Vista operates as a mid-cap E&P pure-play, with its strategic emphasis on Argentina positioning it to benefit from the countrys growing shale development.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Vaca Muerta shale production growth drives oil output higher
  • Brent crude price swings directly impact realized prices and margins
  • Argentina peso devaluation and Milei reforms shape capital allocation
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 827.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.56 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -12.55% < 20% (prev -20.85%; Δ 8.30% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 2.14b > Net Income 827.0m
Net Debt (3.03b) to EBITDA (2.09b): 1.45 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.72 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (110.6m) vs 12m ago 1.72% < -2%
Gross Margin: 57.07% > 18% (prev 48.03%; Δ 9.04% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 49.93% > 50% (prev 33.04%; Δ 16.90% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.38 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 243.7m)
Altman Z'' 1.95
A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 1.33b - Total Current Liabilities 1.85b) / Total Assets 9.77b
B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 2.42b / Total Assets 9.77b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 8.25b)
D: 0.59 (Book Value of Equity 3.56b / Total Liabilities 6.01b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.95 = BBB
Beneish M -3.16
DSRI: 0.45 (Receivables 342.8m/414.8m, Revenue 4.12b/2.23b)
GMI: 0.84 (GM 48.03% / 57.07%)
AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.09)
SGI: 1.85 (Revenue 4.12b / 2.23b)
TATA: -0.13 (NI 827.0m - CFO 2.14b) / TA 9.77b)
Beneish M = -3.16 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of VIST shares?

As of November 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.02 with a total of 1,777,450 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.18%, over one month by -6.79%, over three months by -6.20% and over the past year by +27.67%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.30 (which is 6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is VIST a buy, sell or hold?

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VIST.

  • StrongBuy: 8
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the VIST price?
Analysts Target Price 93 49.9%
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 31 October 2026
Market Cap USD = 7.92b (7.92b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.4683
P/E Forward = 6.2735
P/S = 2.2462
P/B = 2.3968
Revenue TTM = 4.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.09b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.08b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 564.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.38b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 83.1m
Net Debt = 3.03b USD (calculated: Debt 3.38b - CCE 349.9m)
Enterprise Value = 10.9b USD (7.92b + Debt 3.38b - CCE 349.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.38 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 243.7m)
EV/FCF = 21.42x (Enterprise Value 10.9b / FCF TTM 511.2m)
FCF Yield = 4.67% (FCF TTM 511.2m / Enterprise Value 10.9b)
FCF Margin = 12.40% (FCF TTM 511.2m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Net Margin = 20.06% (Net Income TTM 827.0m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Gross Margin = 57.07% ((Revenue TTM 4.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.75% (prev 57.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.12 (Enterprise Value 10.9b / Total Assets 9.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.21% (Interest Expense 243.7m / Debt 3.38b)
Taxrate = 34.07% (427.8m / 1.26b)
NOPAT = 704.4m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 34.07%))
Current Ratio = 0.72 (Total Current Assets 1.33b / Total Current Liabilities 1.85b)
Debt / Equity = 0.95 (Debt 3.38b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 3.03b / EBITDA 2.09b)
Debt / FCF = 5.93 (Net Debt 3.03b / FCF TTM 511.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.02% (Net Income 827.0m / Total Assets 9.77b)
RoE = 27.54% (Net Income TTM 827.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 17.57% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 3.08b))
RoIC = 8.67% (NOPAT 704.4m / Invested Capital 8.12b)
WACC = 6.01% (E(7.92b)/V(11.3b) * Re(6.54%) + D(3.38b)/V(11.3b) * Rd(7.21%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 6.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 92.91 | Cagr: 6.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈511.2m ; Y1≈513.3m ; Y5≈543.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.05 (EV 8.46b - Net Debt 3.03b = Equity 5.43b / Shares 110.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -64.34 | EPS CAGR: -25.34% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.02 | Revenue CAGR: 58.26% | SUE: 2.75 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=71.44 | Chg30d=+36.39% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=199.04 | Chg30d=+22.00% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+250.4% | GrowthRev=+77.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=212.93 | Chg30d=+16.37% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+7.0% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)