VIST Stock Analysis: Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.352m USD | 12M Return: 10.1% | US92837L1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 67.4M
EPS Trend: -64.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.3 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: VIST) is a Mexico-based independent energy company focused on the exploration and production of oil and gas across Latin America. Its principal asset is located in the Vaca Muerta play within Argentinas Neuquina basin, a region recognized as one of the worlds most significant unconventional hydrocarbon resources, particularly known for its shale oil and gas potential. The company also holds producing assets in Mexico and conducts drilling and workover activities in Argentina.
Originally incorporated in 2017 as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V., the company rebranded to its current name in April 2022 and went public on the NYSE in July 2019. Classified within the Energy sector under the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry, Vista operates as a mid-cap E&P pure-play, with its strategic emphasis on Argentina positioning it to benefit from the countrys growing shale development.
- Vaca Muerta shale production growth drives oil output higher
- Brent crude price swings directly impact realized prices and margins
- Argentina peso devaluation and Milei reforms shape capital allocation
| Net Income: 827.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -12.55% < 20% (prev -20.85%; Δ 8.30% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 2.14b > Net Income 827.0m |
| Net Debt (3.02b) to EBITDA (2.09b): 1.44 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (116.6m) vs 12m ago 7.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.07% > 18% (prev 48.03%; Δ 9.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.93% > 50% (prev 33.04%; Δ 16.90% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.38 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 243.7m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 1.33b - Total Current Liabilities 1.85b) / Total Assets 9.77b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 2.42b / Total Assets 9.77b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 8.25b) |
| D: 0.59 (Book Value of Equity 3.56b / Total Liabilities 6.01b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.95 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.63 (Receivables 487.6m/414.8m, Revenue 4.12b/2.23b) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 48.03% / 57.07%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.85 (Revenue 4.12b / 2.23b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 827.0m - CFO 2.14b) / TA 9.77b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 55.97 with a total of 955,991 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.75%, over one month by -19.37%, over three months by -15.36% and over the past year by +10.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 52.00 (which is 7.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VIST.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 95.3 | 70.3% |
P/E Trailing = 8.0987
P/E Forward = 6.2735
P/S = 1.5439
P/B = 1.7825
Revenue TTM = 4.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.09b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.08b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 598.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 83.1m
Net Debt = 3.02b USD (calculated: Debt 3.81b - CCE 789.5m)
Enterprise Value = 9.37b USD (6.35b + Debt 3.81b - CCE 789.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.38 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 243.7m)
EV/FCF = 18.33x (Enterprise Value 9.37b / FCF TTM 511.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.46% (FCF TTM 511.2m / Enterprise Value 9.37b)
FCF Margin = 12.40% (FCF TTM 511.2m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Net Margin = 20.06% (Net Income TTM 827.0m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Gross Margin = 57.07% ((Revenue TTM 4.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.75% (prev 57.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 9.37b / Total Assets 9.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.40% (Interest Expense 243.7m / Debt 3.81b)
Taxrate = 34.14% (428.7m / 1.26b)
NOPAT = 703.6m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 34.14%))
Current Ratio = 0.72 (Total Current Assets 1.33b / Total Current Liabilities 1.85b)
Debt / Equity = 1.07 (Debt 3.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.44 (Net Debt 3.02b / EBITDA 2.09b)
Debt / FCF = 5.91 (Net Debt 3.02b / FCF TTM 511.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.02% (Net Income 827.0m / Total Assets 9.77b)
RoE = 27.54% (Net Income TTM 827.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 17.57% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 3.08b))
RoIC = 8.46% (NOPAT 703.6m / Invested Capital 8.32b)
WACC = 5.77% (E(6.35b)/V(10.2b) * Re(6.70%) + D(3.81b)/V(10.2b) * Rd(6.40%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 6.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.46 | Cagr: 6.86%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈511.2m ; Y1≈513.3m ; Y5≈543.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.16 (EV 8.46b - Net Debt 3.02b = Equity 5.44b / Shares 110.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -64.34 | EPS CAGR: -25.34% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.02 | Revenue CAGR: 58.26% | SUE: 2.75 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=74.48 | Chg30d=+4.27% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=189.49 | Chg30d=+16.14% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+233.6% | GrowthRev=+78.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=215.36 | Chg30d=+17.70% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+13.7% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=9, down=2)