(VLRS) Volaris - Overview
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Airlines | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 788m USD | Total Return: 68.9% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 3.54M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: -61.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (8.9) with thin interest coverage (0.5)
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.5 is critical
Altman Z'' -0.75 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Extended 1w Choppy
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación (VLRS), operating as Volaris, is a low-cost carrier providing passenger, cargo, and mail transportation across Mexico, the United States, Central America, and South America. The company utilizes an asset-light business model, leasing its entire fleet of 141 aircraft and 18 spare engines to maintain operational flexibility. Beyond core flight operations, the firm generates ancillary revenue through loyalty programs, travel agency services, and aeronautical technical support.
Volaris focuses on the bus-switching segment of the Mexican market, targeting price-sensitive travelers transitioning from long-distance bus travel to aviation. This ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) model relies on high aircraft utilization and dense seating configurations to minimize unit costs. Investors may find it useful to examine ValueRay for deeper insights into the companys valuation metrics. Headquartered in Mexico City, the airline currently manages a network of approximately 550 daily flights connecting 73 cities internationally.
- Pratt & Whitney engine inspections constrain capacity and increase maintenance costs
- Fuel price volatility and Mexican Peso fluctuations impact operating margins
- Expansion into US market depends on Mexico maintaining FAA Category 1 rating
- VFR passenger demand across Mexico and US borders drives ticket revenue
- Low-cost structure enables market share gains from legacy domestic competitors
| Net Income: -124.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.18% < 20% (prev -14.79%; Δ -7.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 777.8m > Net Income -124.0m |
| Net Debt (6.22b) to EBITDA (700.0m): 8.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.9m) vs 12m ago -0.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.12% > 18% (prev 0.12%; Δ 1.10k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 55.18% > 50% (prev 53.66%; Δ 1.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.49 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 700.0m / Interest Expense TTM 306.8m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.39b - Total Current Liabilities 2.09b) / Total Assets 5.65b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -197.0m / Total Assets 5.65b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 149.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.67b) |
| D: -0.01 (Book Value of Equity -64.0m / Total Liabilities 5.45b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.75 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 250.0m/212.0m, Revenue 3.13b/3.05b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 11.12% / 12.40%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 3.13b / 3.05b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -124.0m - CFO 777.8m) / TA 5.65b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.54 with a total of 644,636 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.57%,
over one month by +7.07%,
over three months by -10.44% and
over the past year by +68.93%.
Volaris has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.27. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VLRS.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 9 | 18.8% |
P/E Forward = 36.3636
P/S = 0.2517
P/B = 3.8063
P/EG = 13.4761
Revenue TTM = 3.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 149.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 700.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 394.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 754.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.16b
Net Debt = 6.22b USD (calculated: Debt 6.98b - CCE 758.5m)
Enterprise Value = 7.01b USD (787.9m + Debt 6.98b - CCE 758.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.49 (Ebit TTM 149.0m / Interest Expense TTM 306.8m)
EV/FCF = 13.96x (Enterprise Value 7.01b / FCF TTM 502.4m)
FCF Yield = 7.16% (FCF TTM 502.4m / Enterprise Value 7.01b)
FCF Margin = 16.06% (FCF TTM 502.4m / Revenue TTM 3.13b)
Net Margin = -3.96% (Net Income TTM -124.0m / Revenue TTM 3.13b)
Gross Margin = 11.12% ((Revenue TTM 3.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.26% (prev 31.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 7.01b / Total Assets 5.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.39% (Interest Expense 306.8m / Debt 6.98b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 117.7m (EBIT 149.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 1.39b / Total Current Liabilities 2.09b)
Debt / Equity = 33.73 (Debt 6.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 207.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.89 (Net Debt 6.22b / EBITDA 700.0m)
Debt / FCF = 12.39 (Net Debt 6.22b / FCF TTM 502.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 246.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.19% (Net Income -124.0m / Total Assets 5.65b)
RoE = -27.96% (Net Income TTM -124.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 443.5m)
RoCE = 17.79% (EBIT 149.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 443.5m + L.T.Debt 394.0m))
RoIC = 3.31% (NOPAT 117.7m / Invested Capital 3.56b)
WACC = 4.26% (E(787.9m)/V(7.77b) * Re(11.27%) + D(6.98b)/V(7.77b) * Rd(4.39%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -83.00 | Cagr: -0.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈664.3m ; Y1≈582.6m ; Y5≈470.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.59 (EV 7.56b - Net Debt 6.22b = Equity 1.33b / Shares 114.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.97 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -61.45 | Revenue CAGR: -2.17% | SUE: -0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-1.30 | Chg30d=-25.36% | Revisions=-14% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-77.86% | Revisions=-14% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.67 | Chg30d=-22.52% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-84.0% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.16 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-60% | GrowthEPS=+90.2% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -60%