(VLRS) Volaris - Ratings and Ratios
Passenger Flights, Cargo Transport, Mail Service, Loyalty Program
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 73.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.78% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.03 |
| Alpha | -21.73 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.371 |
| Beta | 1.001 |
| Beta Downside | 1.102 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 76.05% |
| Mean DD | 43.75% |
| Median DD | 50.63% |
Description: VLRS Volaris October 23, 2025
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (Volaris, NYSE: VLRS) operates a low-cost airline network across Mexico, the United States, Central America and South America, running roughly 550 flights daily to 44 Mexican cities, 23 U.S. cities, 4 Central-American destinations and 2 South-American hubs. Its ancillary portfolio includes travel-agency services, a loyalty program, aircraft financing and technical support, while the fleet consists of 141 leased aircraft and 18 spare engines as of 31 Dec 2024.
Key operating metrics that analysts track: • 2024 passenger traffic reached about 28 million – a ~12 % increase year-over-year, driven by a rebound in domestic tourism and a weaker MXN that makes outbound travel cheaper for Mexican consumers. • Average load factor hovered near 82 %, above the low-cost industry average of ~78 % in the region, indicating strong demand elasticity. • Cost per available seat-kilometre (CASM) is roughly 7.2 cents, roughly 5 % lower than legacy carriers, reflecting Volaris’s efficient single-type fleet and high aircraft utilisation (≈13 hours/day). The airline is also exposed to fuel price volatility, with fuel representing ~30 % of operating costs; recent hedging has locked in prices at $0.85 USD per gallon, mitigating upside risk from global crude rebounds.
For a deeper dive into VLRS’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a structured framework worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-62.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 179.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -8.90pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -22.07% (prev -14.72%; Δ -7.35pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 755.3m > Net Income -62.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (3.09b) to EBITDA (567.0m) ratio: 5.46 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.67 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (116.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.37% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 12.81% (prev 19.22%; Δ -6.41pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 53.42% (prev 58.38%; Δ -4.96pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.61 (EBITDA TTM 567.0m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.60
| (A) -0.12 = (Total Current Assets 1.35b - Total Current Liabilities 2.01b) / Total Assets 5.70b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -130.0m / Total Assets 5.70b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 196.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.60b |
| (D) -0.00 = Book Value of Equity -11.0m / Total Liabilities 5.44b |
| Total Rating: -0.60 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.72
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 13.53% |
| 3. FCF Margin 17.76% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 14.75 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.46 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 9.31)% |
| 7. RoE -20.74% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 32.29% |
| 9. EPS Trend 14.26% |
What is the price of VLRS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.55%, over one month by +14.85%, over three months by +29.30% and over the past year by -6.24%.
Is VLRS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VLRS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.3 | 6.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.3 | 6.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.6 | -3.1% |
VLRS Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Forward = 7.3099
P/S = 0.2824
P/B = 3.2233
P/EG = 1.69
Beta = 1.283
Revenue TTM = 2.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 196.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 567.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 452.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 749.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.87b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.92b USD (844.5m + Debt 3.87b - CCE 785.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.61 (Ebit TTM 196.0m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0m)
FCF Yield = 13.53% (FCF TTM 531.0m / Enterprise Value 3.92b)
FCF Margin = 17.76% (FCF TTM 531.0m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Net Margin = -2.07% (Net Income TTM -62.0m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Gross Margin = 12.81% ((Revenue TTM 2.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.82% (prev 1.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 3.92b / Total Assets 5.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.97% (Interest Expense 76.0m / Debt 3.87b)
Taxrate = 33.33% (3.00m / 9.00m)
NOPAT = 130.7m (EBIT 196.0m * (1 - 33.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 1.35b / Total Current Liabilities 2.01b)
Debt / Equity = 14.75 (Debt 3.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 262.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.46 (Net Debt 3.09b / EBITDA 567.0m)
Debt / FCF = 5.83 (Net Debt 3.09b / FCF TTM 531.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 298.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.09% (Net Income -62.0m / Total Assets 5.70b)
RoE = -20.74% (Net Income TTM -62.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 298.9m)
RoCE = 26.10% (EBIT 196.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 298.9m + L.T.Debt 452.0m))
RoIC = 12.13% (NOPAT 130.7m / Invested Capital 1.08b)
WACC = 2.82% (E(844.5m)/V(4.71b) * Re(9.71%) + D(3.87b)/V(4.71b) * Rd(1.97%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 9.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.13%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.64% ; FCFE base≈718.6m ; Y1≈772.2m ; Y5≈945.8m
Fair Price DCF = 108.0 (DCF Value 12.40b / Shares Outstanding 114.9m; 5y FCF grow 8.36% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 14.26 | EPS CAGR: 2.45% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.29 | Revenue CAGR: 3.79% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=+0.126 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+0.100 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+129.1% | Growth Revenue=+11.5%
Additional Sources for VLRS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle