Overview Dividends

(VST) Vistra Energy - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US92840M1027

Electricity, Natural Gas, Power Generation

VST EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): 126.81%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): 30.1%

VST Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -71.98%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): -46.2%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	50.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	79.4%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	0.60
Alpha Jensen	6.26

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.319
Beta	1.390

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	48.80%
Mean DD	9.04%

Description: VST Vistra Energy September 26, 2025

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power-generation firm headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company serves roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and the District of Columbia, offering both electricity and natural-gas retail services.

Its operations are organized into five segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. Across these segments Vistra controls about 41 GW of generation capacity, a diversified mix that includes natural-gas combined-cycle plants, nuclear units, coal facilities, utility-scale solar farms, and battery-energy-storage systems.

Recent financial metrics (as of FY 2023) show revenue of $12.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 31 %, reflecting strong cash generation despite a 5.2 % year-over-year increase in fuel-cost exposure. The balance sheet carries $15 billion of long-term debt, yielding a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 2.3×, which is modest for a capital-intensive utility but still sensitive to interest-rate cycles.

Key economic drivers for Vistra include regional natural-gas price volatility, the pace of renewable-energy integration, and evolving state-level decarbonization policies-particularly in Texas where the company’s generation fleet is heavily gas-focused. A single, value-adding sentence that naturally invites readers to continue their research on ValueRay (avoid overt sales pitches; make it feel like helpful advice to encourage visits without being pushy). For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform provides granular cash-flow and valuation models that can help you test the sensitivity of Vistra’s upside to fuel-price and regulatory scenarios.

VST Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	64,716m
Sub-Industry	Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
IPO / Inception	2016-10-04
Return 12m vs S&P 500	8.83%
Analyst Rating	4.28 of 5

VST Dividends

Dividend Yield	0.50%
Yield on Cost 5y	5.07%
Yield CAGR 5y	12.82%
Payout Consistency	70.5%
Payout Ratio	34.9%

VST Growth Ratios

CAGR	103.06%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	2.11
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	11.40
Current Volume	4216.7k
Average Volume	4273.7k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income (732.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 441.7m TTM)

FCFTA 0.72 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 66.90pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -72.25% (prev 5.65%; Δ -77.90pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.41 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.35b > Net Income 732.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-2.64b) to EBITDA (1.89b) ratio: -1.40 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.37 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (339.8m) change vs 12m ago -2.97% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin -131.4% (prev 28.24%; Δ -159.6pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 35.75% (prev 40.68%; Δ -4.93pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.94 (EBITDA TTM 1.89b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -10.62

(A) -1.61 = (Total Current Assets 3.11b - Total Current Liabilities 8.43b) / Total Assets 3.31b

(B) -0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -454.0m / Total Assets 3.31b

(D) -0.01 = Book Value of Equity -229.0m / Total Liabilities 32.19b

Total Rating: -10.62 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 55.66

1. Piotroski 6.0pt = 1.0

2. FCF Yield 3.00% = 1.50

3. FCF Margin 32.34% = 7.50

4. Debt/Equity 3.12 = -0.95

5. Debt/Ebitda -1.40 = 2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.09)% = -5.12

7. RoE 14.17% = 1.18

8. Rev. Trend -46.17% = -3.46

9. EPS Trend 30.13% = 1.51

What is the price of VST shares?

As of November 13, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 178.27 with a total of 4,216,699 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.87%, over one month by -14.93%, over three months by -14.84% and over the past year by +26.12%.

Is Vistra Energy a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Vistra Energy is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 55.66 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of VST is around 227.30 USD . This means that VST is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +27.5% (Margin of Safety).

Is VST a buy, sell or hold?

Vistra Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VST.

Strong Buy: 10
Buy: 5
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	227	27.4%
Analysts Target Price	227	27.4%
ValueRay Target Price	254.8	42.9%

VST Fundamental Data Overview November 09, 2025

Market Cap USD = 64.72b (64.72b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 67.9715
P/E Forward = 22.3214
P/S = 3.7645
P/B = 29.2552
P/EG = 4.39
Beta = 1.39
Revenue TTM = 7.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.15b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 17.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -2.64b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 79.44b USD (64.72b + Debt 17.36b - CCE 2.64b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.94 (Ebit TTM 1.15b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b)
FCF Yield = 3.00% (FCF TTM 2.38b / Enterprise Value 79.44b)
FCF Margin = 32.34% (FCF TTM 2.38b / Revenue TTM 7.36b)
Net Margin = 9.94% (Net Income TTM 732.0m / Revenue TTM 7.36b)
Gross Margin = -131.4% ((Revenue TTM 7.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.03b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 21.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 23.99 (Enterprise Value 79.44b / Total Assets 3.31b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.65% (Interest Expense 286.0m / Debt 17.36b)
Taxrate = 13.30% (100.0m / 752.0m)
NOPAT = 997.9m (EBIT 1.15b * (1 - 13.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.37 (Total Current Assets 3.11b / Total Current Liabilities 8.43b)
Debt / Equity = 3.12 (Debt 17.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last fiscal year 5.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.40 (Net Debt -2.64b / EBITDA 1.89b)
Debt / FCF = -1.11 (Net Debt -2.64b / FCF TTM 2.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.11% (Net Income 732.0m / Total Assets 3.31b)
RoE = 14.17% (Net Income TTM 732.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.16b)
RoCE = 5.59% (EBIT 1.15b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.16b + L.T.Debt 15.42b))
RoIC = 4.99% (NOPAT 997.9m / Invested Capital 19.99b)
WACC = 9.09% (E(64.72b)/V(82.08b) * Re(11.14%) + D(17.36b)/V(82.08b) * Rd(1.65%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 11.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 57.90% ; FCFE base≈2.19b ; Y1≈1.44b ; Y5≈656.9m
Fair Price DCF = 24.98 (DCF Value 8.47b / Shares Outstanding 338.8m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 30.13 | EPS CAGR: 126.8% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -46.17 | Revenue CAGR: -71.98% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for VST Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle