(VST) Vistra Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas, Power Generation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.64% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.73% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.82% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 77.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.50 |
| Alpha | -16.32 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.360 |
| Beta | 1.937 |
| Beta Downside | 2.348 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.80% |
| Mean DD | 9.30% |
| Median DD | 5.99% |
Description: VST Vistra Energy September 26, 2025
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power-generation firm headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company serves roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and the District of Columbia, offering both electricity and natural-gas retail services.
Its operations are organized into five segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. Across these segments Vistra controls about 41 GW of generation capacity, a diversified mix that includes natural-gas combined-cycle plants, nuclear units, coal facilities, utility-scale solar farms, and battery-energy-storage systems.
Recent financial metrics (as of FY 2023) show revenue of $12.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 31 %, reflecting strong cash generation despite a 5.2 % year-over-year increase in fuel-cost exposure. The balance sheet carries $15 billion of long-term debt, yielding a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 2.3×, which is modest for a capital-intensive utility but still sensitive to interest-rate cycles.
Key economic drivers for Vistra include regional natural-gas price volatility, the pace of renewable-energy integration, and evolving state-level decarbonization policies-particularly in Texas where the company’s generation fleet is heavily gas-focused. A single, value-adding sentence that naturally invites readers to continue their research on ValueRay (avoid overt sales pitches; make it feel like helpful advice to encourage visits without being pushy). For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform provides granular cash-flow and valuation models that can help you test the sensitivity of Vistra’s upside to fuel-price and regulatory scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (1.15b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.31b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.84pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.21% (prev 5.65%; Δ -5.86pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.99b > Net Income 1.15b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (16.90b) to EBITDA (5.15b) ratio: 3.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.99 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (339.8m) change vs 12m ago -2.97% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.61% (prev 28.24%; Δ 9.37pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 57.32% (prev 40.68%; Δ 16.65pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.72 (EBITDA TTM 5.15b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.35
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 8.38b - Total Current Liabilities 8.43b) / Total Assets 38.02b |
| (B) -0.00 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -107.0m / Total Assets 38.02b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 2.12b / Avg Total Assets 37.95b |
| (D) -0.00 = Book Value of Equity -82.0m / Total Liabilities 32.80b |
| Total Rating: 0.35 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.58
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.72% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.36 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.28 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.36)% |
| 7. RoE 22.56% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 34.81% |
| 9. EPS Trend 30.91% |
What is the price of VST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.31%, over one month by -11.29%, over three months by -9.29% and over the past year by +9.31%.
Is VST a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 228.2 | 29.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 228.2 | 29.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 302.7 | 71.2% |
VST Fundamental Data Overview November 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 62.5144
P/E Forward = 18.6916
P/S = 3.4253
P/B = 22.2009
P/EG = 1.7395
Beta = 1.39
Revenue TTM = 21.75b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.76b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.46b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.90b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 75.78b USD (58.88b + Debt 17.50b - CCE 602.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.72 (Ebit TTM 2.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b)
FCF Yield = 3.94% (FCF TTM 2.98b / Enterprise Value 75.78b)
FCF Margin = 13.72% (FCF TTM 2.98b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Net Margin = 5.30% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Gross Margin = 37.61% ((Revenue TTM 21.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.89% (prev 21.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.99 (Enterprise Value 75.78b / Total Assets 38.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.63% (Interest Expense 286.0m / Debt 17.50b)
Taxrate = 23.83% (204.0m / 856.0m)
NOPAT = 1.61b (EBIT 2.12b * (1 - 23.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 8.38b / Total Current Liabilities 8.43b)
Debt / Equity = 3.36 (Debt 17.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.28 (Net Debt 16.90b / EBITDA 5.15b)
Debt / FCF = 5.66 (Net Debt 16.90b / FCF TTM 2.98b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.03% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 38.02b)
RoE = 22.56% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.11b)
RoCE = 10.14% (EBIT 2.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.11b + L.T.Debt 15.76b))
RoIC = 8.06% (NOPAT 1.61b / Invested Capital 19.98b)
WACC = 10.42% (E(58.88b)/V(76.39b) * Re(13.15%) + D(17.50b)/V(76.39b) * Rd(1.63%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 13.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 51.27% ; FCFE base≈2.55b ; Y1≈1.67b ; Y5≈765.5m
Fair Price DCF = 24.11 (DCF Value 8.17b / Shares Outstanding 338.8m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 30.91 | EPS CAGR: 4.20% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 34.81 | Revenue CAGR: 9.84% | SUE: -1.21 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for VST Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle