(VST) Vistra Energy - Overview
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 52.692m USD | Total Return: 0.9% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 852M
EPS Trend: 58.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 44.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Beneish M-Score -0.91 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Altman Z'' 0.37 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Extended 1w Choppy
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated power company operating across the United States, managing a diverse energy portfolio that includes nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage. The company functions through a dual-model approach, combining wholesale electricity generation with a retail arm that serves approximately 5 million residential and commercial customers. This integrated structure allows the firm to hedge against market volatility by matching its generation output with its internal retail demand.
The company operates within the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders sub-industry, where firms often focus on competitive deregulated markets rather than traditional regulated utility frameworks. Vistra’s current operations emphasize a transition toward carbon-free assets, highlighted by its significant nuclear capacity and expanding battery energy storage systems. Beyond energy production, the firm manages the full lifecycle of power assets, including fuel logistics and the decommissioning of retired facilities.
Investors can further evaluate these operational segments and financial metrics by exploring the detailed data available on ValueRay. Vistra continues to focus on balancing its legacy thermal fleet with increasing investments in sustainable energy infrastructure to meet evolving grid requirements.
- Nuclear generation expansion drives valuation premiums amid rising data center power demand
- Natural gas price volatility impacts spark spreads and overall merchant power profitability
- Texas retail market share stability secures consistent cash flows for debt reduction
- Regulatory shifts in ERCOT market structure influence long-term capacity revenue outlook
- Nuclear fleet acquisition enhances carbon-free generation profile and attracts ESG-focused capital flows
| Net Income: 2.24b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.43% < 20% (prev -6.08%; Δ -0.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 4.67b > Net Income 2.24b |
| Net Debt (19.5b) to EBITDA (5.53b): 3.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.8m) vs 12m ago 0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.72% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 1.23k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.77% > 50% (prev 56.91%; Δ -16.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.26 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 5.53b / Interest Expense TTM 1.14b) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 9.02b - Total Current Liabilities 10.1b) / Total Assets 41.3b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 903.0m / Total Assets 41.3b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 2.57b / Avg Total Assets 39.8b) |
| D: 0.03 (Book Value of Equity 925.0m / Total Liabilities 35.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.37 = B |
| DSRI: 1.38 (Receivables 1.98b/1.92b, Revenue 16.2b/21.8b) |
| GMI: 3.29 (GM 12.72% / 41.84%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 0.75 (Revenue 16.2b / 21.8b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.24b - CFO 4.67b) / TA 41.3b) |
| Beneish M = -0.91 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 164.56 with a total of 7,505,151 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +20.34%,
over one month by -1.21%,
over three months by -6.81% and
over the past year by +0.94%.
Vistra Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VST.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 225.3 | 36.9% |
P/E Trailing = 26.0885
P/E Forward = 17.1233
P/S = 2.7098
P/B = 16.8829
P/EG = 0.465
Revenue TTM = 16.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.57b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.53b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.65b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 289.0m
Net Debt = 19.5b USD (calculated: Debt 20.2b - CCE 671.0m)
Enterprise Value = 72.2b USD (52.7b + Debt 20.2b - CCE 671.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.26 (Ebit TTM 2.57b / Interest Expense TTM 1.14b)
EV/FCF = 74.84x (Enterprise Value 72.2b / FCF TTM 965.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.34% (FCF TTM 965.0m / Enterprise Value 72.2b)
FCF Margin = 5.95% (FCF TTM 965.0m / Revenue TTM 16.2b)
Net Margin = 13.82% (Net Income TTM 2.24b / Revenue TTM 16.2b)
Gross Margin = 12.72% ((Revenue TTM 16.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.26% (prev -55.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.75 (Enterprise Value 72.2b / Total Assets 41.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.64% (Interest Expense 1.14b / Debt 20.2b)
Taxrate = 15.10% (183.0m / 1.21b)
NOPAT = 2.18b (EBIT 2.57b * (1 - 15.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.90 (Total Current Assets 9.02b / Total Current Liabilities 10.1b)
Debt / Equity = 3.61 (Debt 20.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.53 (Net Debt 19.5b / EBITDA 5.53b)
Debt / FCF = 20.24 (Net Debt 19.5b / FCF TTM 965.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.64% (Net Income 2.24b / Total Assets 41.3b)
RoE = 43.22% (Net Income TTM 2.24b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.18b)
RoCE = 11.46% (EBIT 2.57b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.18b + L.T.Debt 17.3b))
RoIC = 6.44% (NOPAT 2.18b / Invested Capital 33.9b)
WACC = 10.38% (E(52.7b)/V(72.9b) * Re(12.52%) + D(20.2b)/V(72.9b) * Rd(5.64%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 12.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -68.89 | Cagr: -3.87%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.92% ; FCFF base≈1.57b ; Y1≈1.37b ; Y5≈1.11b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 13.4b - Net Debt 19.5b = -6.16b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 58.16 | EPS CAGR: 49.32% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 44.04 | Revenue CAGR: 7.84% | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=-4.96% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.27 | Chg30d=-20.63% | Revisions=-33% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.55 | Chg30d=+9.43% | Revisions=+45% | GrowthEPS=+338.1% | GrowthRev=+31.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.92 | Chg30d=+0.62% | Revisions=-11% | GrowthEPS=+14.3% | GrowthRev=+8.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +45%