VST Stock Analysis: Vistra | NYSE
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 37.890m USD | 12M Return: -25.1% | US92840M1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 902M
EPS Trend: 71.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 84.6%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.1 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is a U.S.-based integrated retail electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas, and founded in 1882. It operates through five segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure-serving approximately 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across multiple states and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in wholesale energy trading, commodity risk management, fuel procurement and logistics, and the decommissioning, reclamation, and battery remediation of retired generation and mining assets. Vistra was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. before rebranding in July 2020 and trades as a large-cap stock in the GICS Utilities sub-industry of Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders.
As an independent power producer, Vistra generates and sells electricity without being tied to a single regulated utility franchise, exposing it more directly to competitive wholesale power markets than traditional regulated utilities. The company operates one of the largest competitive generation fleets in the United States, with a diverse mix spanning natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage, allowing it to participate across both baseload and intermittent renewable segments of the power market.
- AI data center demand lifts wholesale electricity prices
- Texas heat waves boost retail electricity volume
- Nuclear fleet expansion supports stable margins
| Net Income: 2.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.46% < 20% (prev -5.13%; Δ 3.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 5.12b > Net Income 2.22b |
| Net Debt (19.7b) to EBITDA (6.57b): 3.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.2m) vs 12m ago -0.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.99% > 18% (prev 39.99%; Δ -2.00% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.58% > 50% (prev 48.52%; Δ -0.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.30 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.79b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 10.3b - Total Current Liabilities 10.6b) / Total Assets 42.6b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.08b / Total Assets 42.6b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 3.79b / Avg Total Assets 40.4b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 5.48b / Total Liabilities 37.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.83 = B |
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 2.29b/2.23b, Revenue 19.2b/18.5b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 39.99% / 37.99%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 19.2b / 18.5b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 2.22b - CFO 5.12b) / TA 42.6b) |
| Beneish M = -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 133.45 with a total of 4,232,169 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.94%, over one month by -15.61%, over three months by -7.76% and over the past year by -25.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 121.80 (which is 8.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Vistra has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.70. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VST.
- StrongBuy: 18
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 204.3 | 53.1% |
P/E Trailing = 19.0371
P/E Forward = 10.917
P/S = 1.9722
P/B = 12.6047
P/EG = 0.3188
Revenue TTM = 19.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.79b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.57b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.18b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 289.0m
Net Debt = 19.7b USD (calculated: Debt 20.2b - CCE 435.0m)
Enterprise Value = 57.6b USD (37.9b + Debt 20.2b - CCE 435.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.30 (Ebit TTM 3.79b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b)
EV/FCF = 41.89x (Enterprise Value 57.6b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 2.39% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Enterprise Value 57.6b)
FCF Margin = 7.16% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Net Margin = 11.55% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Gross Margin = 37.99% ((Revenue TTM 19.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.60% (prev 42.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.35 (Enterprise Value 57.6b / Total Assets 42.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.69% (Interest Expense 1.15b / Debt 20.2b)
Taxrate = 20.83% (584.0m / 2.80b)
NOPAT = 3.00b (EBIT 3.79b * (1 - 20.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 10.3b / Total Current Liabilities 10.6b)
Debt / Equity = 3.68 (Debt 20.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.01 (Net Debt 19.7b / EBITDA 6.57b)
Debt / FCF = 14.35 (Net Debt 19.7b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.50% (Net Income 2.22b / Total Assets 42.6b)
RoE = 41.48% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.35b)
RoCE = 16.43% (EBIT 3.79b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.35b + L.T.Debt 17.7b))
RoIC = 8.88% (NOPAT 3.00b / Invested Capital 33.8b)
WACC = 9.14% (E(37.9b)/V(58.1b) * Re(11.61%) + D(20.2b)/V(58.1b) * Rd(5.69%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.14 | Cagr: -1.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.19% ; FCFF base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.30b ; Y5≈1.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 15.0b - Net Debt 19.7b = -4.79b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 71.67 | EPS CAGR: 68.67% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.59 | Revenue CAGR: 12.13% | SUE: -1.54 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.43 | Chg30d=+0.22% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.28 | Chg30d=-2.46% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+325.6% | GrowthRev=+24.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.33 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+11.4% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=6, down=8)