(VST) Vistra Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas, Wholesale Energy, Battery Storage
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.63% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.82% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 35.1% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 72.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.65% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.45 |
| Alpha | -16.81 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.414 |
| Beta | 1.930 |
| Beta Downside | 2.364 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.80% |
| Mean DD | 9.33% |
| Median DD | 5.94% |
Description: VST Vistra Energy December 02, 2025
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power-generation firm operating across the United States through five business segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company supplies electricity and natural gas to roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers, while also managing generation, wholesale trading, commodity risk, fuel production, and logistics.
Its generation fleet totals about 41 GW and is diversified across natural-gas-fired plants, nuclear units, coal facilities, solar projects, and battery-energy-storage assets. As of the latest filing, natural gas accounts for roughly 65 % of capacity, nuclear 20 %, and renewables (solar plus storage) about 15 %-a mix that positions Vistra to benefit from both baseload reliability and the industry’s shift toward cleaner energy.
Key recent metrics include Q4 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion and a cash-flow conversion rate of 115 %, reflecting strong operating leverage. The firm’s earnings are sensitive to natural-gas price volatility and to regulatory trends that encourage decarbonization, such as state-level renewable-portfolio standards and federal carbon-pricing discussions.
Vistra’s long-standing presence (founded in 1882, headquartered in Irving, Texas) and its recent rebranding from Vistra Energy Corp. in 2020 underscore a strategic focus on integrated retail-generation synergies and asset-closure optimization.
For a deeper dive into Vistra’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-rich overview worth checking out.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (1.15b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.31b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.84pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.21% (prev 5.65%; Δ -5.86pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.99b > Net Income 1.15b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (16.90b) to EBITDA (5.15b) ratio: 3.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.99 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (339.8m) change vs 12m ago -2.97% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.61% (prev 28.24%; Δ 9.37pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 57.32% (prev 40.68%; Δ 16.65pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.72 (EBITDA TTM 5.15b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.35
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 8.38b - Total Current Liabilities 8.43b) / Total Assets 38.02b |
| (B) -0.00 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -107.0m / Total Assets 38.02b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 2.12b / Avg Total Assets 37.95b |
| (D) -0.00 = Book Value of Equity -82.0m / Total Liabilities 32.80b |
| Total Rating: 0.35 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.51
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.89% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.72% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.36 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.28 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.38)% |
| 7. RoE 22.56% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 34.58% |
| 9. EPS Trend 30.91% |
What is the price of VST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.91%, over one month by -11.08%, over three months by -8.66% and over the past year by +11.98%.
Is VST a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 230.7 | 34.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 230.7 | 34.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 295.4 | 72.1% |
VST Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 63.5971
P/E Forward = 18.4502
P/S = 3.4846
P/B = 21.9109
P/EG = 1.7168
Beta = 1.39
Revenue TTM = 21.75b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.12b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.76b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.46b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.90b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 76.80b USD (59.90b + Debt 17.50b - CCE 602.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.72 (Ebit TTM 2.12b / Interest Expense TTM 1.23b)
FCF Yield = 3.89% (FCF TTM 2.98b / Enterprise Value 76.80b)
FCF Margin = 13.72% (FCF TTM 2.98b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Net Margin = 5.30% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 21.75b)
Gross Margin = 37.61% ((Revenue TTM 21.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.89% (prev 21.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.02 (Enterprise Value 76.80b / Total Assets 38.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.63% (Interest Expense 286.0m / Debt 17.50b)
Taxrate = 23.83% (204.0m / 856.0m)
NOPAT = 1.61b (EBIT 2.12b * (1 - 23.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 8.38b / Total Current Liabilities 8.43b)
Debt / Equity = 3.36 (Debt 17.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.28 (Net Debt 16.90b / EBITDA 5.15b)
Debt / FCF = 5.66 (Net Debt 16.90b / FCF TTM 2.98b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.03% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 38.02b)
RoE = 22.56% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.11b)
RoCE = 10.14% (EBIT 2.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.11b + L.T.Debt 15.76b))
RoIC = 8.06% (NOPAT 1.61b / Invested Capital 19.98b)
WACC = 10.44% (E(59.90b)/V(77.41b) * Re(13.13%) + D(17.50b)/V(77.41b) * Rd(1.63%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 13.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 51.34% ; FCFE base≈2.55b ; Y1≈1.67b ; Y5≈765.5m
Fair Price DCF = 24.15 (DCF Value 8.18b / Shares Outstanding 338.8m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 30.91 | EPS CAGR: 4.20% | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 34.58 | Revenue CAGR: 9.84% | SUE: -1.21 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=+1.061 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.83 | Chg30d=+0.213 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+81.9% | Growth Revenue=+15.8%
Additional Sources for VST Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle