(VST) Vistra Energy - Overview
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 52.384m USD | Total Return: 46.3% in 12m
Electricity, Natural Gas, Generation, Retail
Total Rating 23
Safety 38
Buy Signal -0.11
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Industry Rotation: -0.2
Industry Rotation: -0.2
Market Cap:
52.4B
Avg Turnover: 620M USD
Avg Turnover: 620M USD
ATR:
4.74%
Peers RS (IBD): 16.7
Peers RS (IBD): 16.7
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility51.1%
Rel. Tail Risk-1.69%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.95
Alpha-11.49
Character TTM
Beta1.958
Beta Downside0.887
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD48.80%
CAGR/Max DD1.89
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: 43.33%
EPS Trend: 37.4%
EPS Trend: 37.4%
Last SUE: -0.98
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: -13.06%
Rev. Trend: -0.6%
Rev. Trend: -0.6%
Last SUE: -2.38
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Altman Z'' -0.10 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Volatile
Tailwinds
Squeeze
Description: VST Vistra Energy
Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated power company operating in the United States. The company engages in both retail electricity sales and power generation.
Vistra serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of about 41,000 megawatts. Its diverse generation portfolio includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage facilities, reflecting a common strategy in the power generation sector to balance fuel sources and manage intermittency.
The companys business model involves retailing electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This integrates with its power generation activities, wholesale energy trading, and commodity risk management, a typical structure for independent power producers and energy traders.
Further research into Vistras operational efficiency and market position on platforms like ValueRay could provide deeper insights.
- Wholesale power prices impact generation revenue
- Retail electricity demand drives sales volume
- Natural gas prices affect generation costs
- Regulatory changes influence market operations
- Weather patterns impact electricity consumption
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict)
2.5
| Net Income: 944.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -15.75% < 20% (prev -1.62%; Δ -14.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 4.07b > Net Income 944.0m |
| Net Debt (19.58b) to EBITDA (4.89b): 4.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.8m) vs 12m ago 0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.89% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 1.55k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.18% > 50% (prev 51.30%; Δ -9.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.66 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.89b / Interest Expense TTM 1.13b) |
Altman Z''
-0.10
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 9.18b - Total Current Liabilities 11.81b) / Total Assets 41.55b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -12.0m / Total Assets 41.55b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.87b / Avg Total Assets 39.66b) |
| D: 0.00 (Book Value of Equity 10.0m / Total Liabilities 36.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.10 = B |
Beneish M
-1.56
| DSRI: 1.35 (Receivables 2.32b/1.99b, Revenue 16.73b/19.38b) |
| GMI: 2.50 (GM 15.89% / 39.70%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 0.86 (Revenue 16.73b / 19.38b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 944.0m - CFO 4.07b) / TA 41.55b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.56 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
What is the price of VST shares?
As of April 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 163.97 with a total of 3,741,559 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.70%, over one month by +1.36%, over three months by -2.83% and over the past year by +46.25%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.70%, over one month by +1.36%, over three months by -2.83% and over the past year by +46.25%.
Is VST a buy, sell or hold?
Vistra Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy VST.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?
| Analysts Target Price | 234.3 | 42.9% |
Vistra Energy (VST) - Fundamental Data Overview
as of 12 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 70.9771 P/E Forward = 16.7504
P/S = 2.9532
P/B = 19.9862
P/EG = 1.3297
Revenue TTM = 16.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.87b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.84b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.24b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.58b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 71.96b USD (52.38b + Debt 20.39b - CCE 816.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.66 (Ebit TTM 1.87b / Interest Expense TTM 1.13b)
EV/FCF = 112.4x (Enterprise Value 71.96b / FCF TTM 640.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.89% (FCF TTM 640.0m / Enterprise Value 71.96b)
FCF Margin = 3.83% (FCF TTM 640.0m / Revenue TTM 16.73b)
Net Margin = 5.64% (Net Income TTM 944.0m / Revenue TTM 16.73b)
Gross Margin = 15.89% ((Revenue TTM 16.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -55.65% (prev 29.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.73 (Enterprise Value 71.96b / Total Assets 41.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.33% (Interest Expense 271.0m / Debt 20.39b)
Taxrate = 24.35% (75.0m / 308.0m)
NOPAT = 1.42b (EBIT 1.87b * (1 - 24.35%))
Current Ratio = 0.78 (Total Current Assets 9.18b / Total Current Liabilities 11.81b)
Debt / Equity = 3.99 (Debt 20.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.01 (Net Debt 19.58b / EBITDA 4.89b)
Debt / FCF = 30.59 (Net Debt 19.58b / FCF TTM 640.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.38% (Net Income 944.0m / Total Assets 41.55b)
RoE = 18.91% (Net Income TTM 944.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.99b)
RoCE = 8.99% (EBIT 1.87b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.99b + L.T.Debt 15.84b))
RoIC = 6.87% (NOPAT 1.42b / Invested Capital 20.62b)
WACC = 9.55% (E(52.38b)/V(72.78b) * Re(12.87%) + D(20.39b)/V(72.78b) * Rd(1.33%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 12.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 63.98% ; FCFF base≈1.33b ; Y1≈870.3m ; Y5≈398.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 6.21b - Net Debt 19.58b = -13.37b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 37.44 | EPS CAGR: 43.33% | SUE: -0.98 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -0.57 | Revenue CAGR: -13.06% | SUE: -2.38 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.06 | Chg7d=+0.067 | Chg30d=-0.208 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.62 | Chg7d=-0.046 | Chg30d=-0.153 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=+295.3% | Growth Revenue=+28.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.70 | Chg7d=+0.143 | Chg30d=-0.058 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+24.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.33 (1 Up / 2 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 11.5% (Discount Rate 12.9% - Earnings Yield 1.4%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +33.6% (Analyst 45.0% - Implied 11.5%)
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