(VST) Vistra Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Natural Gas, Power Generation
VST EPS (Earnings per Share)
VST Revenue
Description: VST Vistra Energy
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power-generation firm headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company serves roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and the District of Columbia, offering both electricity and natural-gas retail services.
Its operations are organized into five segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. Across these segments Vistra controls about 41 GW of generation capacity, a diversified mix that includes natural-gas combined-cycle plants, nuclear units, coal facilities, utility-scale solar farms, and battery-energy-storage systems.
Recent financial metrics (as of FY 2023) show revenue of $12.6 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 31 %, reflecting strong cash generation despite a 5.2 % year-over-year increase in fuel-cost exposure. The balance sheet carries $15 billion of long-term debt, yielding a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 2.3×, which is modest for a capital-intensive utility but still sensitive to interest-rate cycles.
Key economic drivers for Vistra include regional natural-gas price volatility, the pace of renewable-energy integration, and evolving state-level decarbonization policies-particularly in Texas where the company’s generation fleet is heavily gas-focused. A single, value-adding sentence that naturally invites readers to continue their research on ValueRay (avoid overt sales pitches; make it feel like helpful advice to encourage visits without being pushy). For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform provides granular cash-flow and valuation models that can help you test the sensitivity of Vistra’s upside to fuel-price and regulatory scenarios.
VST Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 71,152m |
| Sub-Industry | Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders |
| IPO / Inception | 2016-10-04 |
VST Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 90.3% |
| Fundamental | 67.5% |
| Dividend Rating | 61.0% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 35.8% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.28 of 5 |
VST Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 0.43% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.33% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 12.82% |
| Payout Consistency | 70.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 14.4% |
VST Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 31.8% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 70.7% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 97% |
| CAGR 5y | 119.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 2.44 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 13.49 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.29 |
| Alpha | 42.07 |
| Beta | 1.340 |
| Volatility | 49.35% |
| Current Volume | 3182k |
| Average Volume 20d | 4262.6k |
| Stop Loss | 198.7 (-5.6%) |
| Signal | -0.14 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (2.39b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.34b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.78pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -4.26% (prev -1.53%; Δ -2.72pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 4.23b > Net Income 2.39b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (17.59b) to EBITDA (6.63b) ratio: 2.65 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.90 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (339.8m) change vs 12m ago -4.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 40.64% (prev 28.12%; Δ 12.52pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 57.76% (prev 38.54%; Δ 19.23pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.03 (EBITDA TTM 6.63b / Interest Expense TTM 1.19b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.39
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 8.48b - Total Current Liabilities 9.43b) / Total Assets 38.15b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -642.0m / Total Assets 38.15b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 3.61b / Avg Total Assets 38.64b |
| (D) -0.02 = Book Value of Equity -618.0m / Total Liabilities 33.31b |
| Total Rating: 0.39 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 67.49
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt = 3.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.51% = 1.75 |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.94% = 3.49 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.74 = -1.76 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.65 = -1.22 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.94)% = 7.43 |
| 7. RoE 46.24% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 19.76% = 1.48 |
| 9. EPS Trend 6.42% = 0.32 |
What is the price of VST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.19%, over one month by +0.57%, over three months by +14.39% and over the past year by +55.94%.
Is Vistra Energy a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of VST is around 276.72 USD . This means that VST is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +31.52% (Margin of Safety).
Is VST a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the VST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 223.9 | 6.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 223.9 | 6.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 310 | 47.3% |
Last update: 2025-10-11 05:04
VST Fundamental Data Overview
P/E Trailing = 33.123
P/E Forward = 22.3214
P/S = 3.8444
P/B = 29.2552
P/EG = 4.39
Beta = 1.34
Revenue TTM = 22.32b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.61b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.63b USD
Long Term Debt = 15.54b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.22b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.59b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 88.74b USD (71.15b + Debt 18.05b - CCE 458.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.03 (Ebit TTM 3.61b / Interest Expense TTM 1.19b)
FCF Yield = 3.51% (FCF TTM 3.11b / Enterprise Value 88.74b)
FCF Margin = 13.94% (FCF TTM 3.11b / Revenue TTM 22.32b)
Net Margin = 10.70% (Net Income TTM 2.39b / Revenue TTM 22.32b)
Gross Margin = 40.64% ((Revenue TTM 22.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.25b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.98% (prev 29.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.33 (Enterprise Value 88.74b / Total Assets 38.15b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.68% (Interest Expense 303.0m / Debt 18.05b)
Taxrate = 18.86% (76.0m / 403.0m)
NOPAT = 2.93b (EBIT 3.61b * (1 - 18.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.90 (Total Current Assets 8.48b / Total Current Liabilities 9.43b)
Debt / Equity = 3.74 (Debt 18.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.65 (Net Debt 17.59b / EBITDA 6.63b)
Debt / FCF = 5.65 (Net Debt 17.59b / FCF TTM 3.11b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.26% (Net Income 2.39b / Total Assets 38.15b)
RoE = 46.24% (Net Income TTM 2.39b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.16b)
RoCE = 17.45% (EBIT 3.61b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.16b + L.T.Debt 15.54b))
RoIC = 14.95% (NOPAT 2.93b / Invested Capital 19.61b)
WACC = 9.01% (E(71.15b)/V(89.20b) * Re(10.95%) + D(18.05b)/V(89.20b) * Rd(1.68%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 10.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.67%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 58.59% ; FCFE base≈2.71b ; Y1≈1.78b ; Y5≈813.2m
Fair Price DCF = 31.57 (DCF Value 10.70b / Shares Outstanding 338.8m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 6.42 | EPS CAGR: -20.27% | SUE: -0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 19.76 | Revenue CAGR: -10.71% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for VST Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle