VST Stock Analysis: Vistra | NYSE
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 46.925m USD | 12M Return: -25.3% | US92840M1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 604M
EPS Trend: 71.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 32.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is a large-cap U.S. integrated electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas. It operates across five segments-Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure-and retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in multiple states plus the District of Columbia. In parallel, it runs a sizable generation fleet spanning natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, along with wholesale energy trading, commodity risk management, and fuel procurement/logistics. A distinct Asset Closure segment handles decommissioning, mine reclamation, and battery removal at retired facilities. The company was founded in 1882, went public in 2016, and was renamed from Vistra Energy Corp. to Vistra Corp. in July 2020.
Vistra sits within the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders sub-industry (GICS Utilities), meaning it operates outside the traditional regulated-utility monopoly model. In deregulated U.S. markets-such as Texas under ERCOT, and portions of the Northeast and Midwest-competitive generators and retail electricity providers set prices through market competition rather than state-approved rate bases. Vistras combination of owned generation plus a retail-facing brand (TXU Energy and others) allows it to capture margin across both the wholesale production and retail supply sides of the value chain, a vertically integrated structure that is relatively uncommon among U.S. IPPs.
- Texas power demand surges from AI data center buildout
- Nuclear capacity expansion with small modular reactor development accelerates
- Wholesale electricity prices rise on tight ERCOT supply conditions
| Net Income: 2.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.76% < 20% (prev -4.26%; Δ 2.50% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 5.12b > Net Income 2.22b |
| Net Debt (19.7b) to EBITDA (6.49b): 3.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (339.8m) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.97% > 18% (prev 40.64%; Δ -27.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.58% > 50% (prev 58.50%; Δ -18.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.28 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.77b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 10.3b - Total Current Liabilities 10.6b) / Total Assets 42.6b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.08b / Total Assets 42.6b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 3.77b / Avg Total Assets 40.4b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 5.48b / Total Liabilities 37.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.82 = B |
| DSRI: 1.44 (Receivables 2.29b/2.23b, Revenue 16.0b/22.3b) |
| GMI: 3.13 (GM 40.64% / 12.97%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 0.72 (Revenue 16.0b / 22.3b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 2.22b - CFO 5.12b) / TA 42.6b) |
| Beneish M = -0.99 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 138.08 with a total of 4,254,879 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.68%, over one month by -11.45%, over three months by -10.66% and over the past year by -25.30%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 130.70 (which is 5.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Vistra has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.28. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VST.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 217.4 | 57.5% |
P/E Trailing = 23.6166
P/E Forward = 15.625
P/S = 2.4425
P/B = 15.6351
P/EG = 0.403
Revenue TTM = 16.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.77b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.49b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.18b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 289.0m
Net Debt = 19.7b USD (calculated: Debt 20.2b - CCE 435.0m)
Enterprise Value = 66.7b USD (46.9b + Debt 20.2b - CCE 435.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.28 (Ebit TTM 3.77b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b)
EV/FCF = 48.46x (Enterprise Value 66.7b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = 2.06% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Enterprise Value 66.7b)
FCF Margin = 8.61% (FCF TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 16.0b)
Net Margin = 13.89% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Revenue TTM 16.0b)
Gross Margin = 12.97% ((Revenue TTM 16.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.53% (prev 20.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.57 (Enterprise Value 66.7b / Total Assets 42.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.69% (Interest Expense 1.15b / Debt 20.2b)
Taxrate = 20.83% (584.0m / 2.80b)
NOPAT = 2.98b (EBIT 3.77b * (1 - 20.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 10.3b / Total Current Liabilities 10.6b)
Debt / Equity = 3.68 (Debt 20.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.04 (Net Debt 19.7b / EBITDA 6.49b)
Debt / FCF = 14.35 (Net Debt 19.7b / FCF TTM 1.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.50% (Net Income 2.22b / Total Assets 42.6b)
RoE = 41.48% (Net Income TTM 2.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.35b)
RoCE = 16.32% (EBIT 3.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.35b + L.T.Debt 17.7b))
RoIC = 8.82% (NOPAT 2.98b / Invested Capital 33.8b)
WACC = 10.15% (E(46.9b)/V(67.1b) * Re(12.58%) + D(20.2b)/V(67.1b) * Rd(5.69%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -76.41 | Cagr: -1.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.68% ; FCFF base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.30b ; Y5≈1.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 13.1b - Net Debt 19.7b = -6.70b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 71.67 | EPS CAGR: 68.67% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.83 | Revenue CAGR: 5.87% | SUE: -0.99 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.58 | Chg30d=+10.30% | Revisions=+22% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.59 | Chg30d=-2.27% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+339.7% | GrowthRev=+28.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.35 | Chg30d=-8.32% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=+5.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -32% (up=6, down=13)