(VVV) Valvoline - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Auto & Truck Dealerships | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 4.283m USD | Total Return: -0.6% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 72.4M
EPS Trend: 82.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Altman Z'' 0.84 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) operates as a major provider of automotive preventive maintenance services across the United States and Canada. Its business model centers on high-frequency, quick-lube retail operations, offering oil changes, battery replacements, and tire rotations through both company-owned and franchised service centers.
The preventive maintenance sector is characterized by recurring revenue streams driven by vehicle mileage and manufacturer-recommended service intervals. Despite its historical roots in lubricant production, the company transitioned into a pure-play retail service provider following the divestiture of its Global Products segment in 2023.
Investors can evaluate the company’s long-term unit growth and franchise profitability by reviewing the detailed metrics available on ValueRay.
Founded in 1866 and headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky, Valvoline currently focuses on expanding its retail footprint to capture market share in the fragmented automotive aftermarket industry.
- Transition to pure-play service model increases valuation multiples and operating margins
- Rapid expansion of franchised and company-owned stores drives top-line revenue growth
- Shift toward electric vehicles reduces long-term demand for traditional oil change services
- Rising labor costs and technician turnover impact store-level profitability and margins
- Strategic focus on quick-lube services captures market share from traditional dealerships
| Net Income: 93.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.33% < 20% (prev -5.11%; Δ -0.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 369.0m > Net Income 93.5m |
| Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (421.3m): 5.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (128.2m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.45% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3.81k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 63.28% > 50% (prev 68.27%; Δ -4.99% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 421.3m / Interest Expense TTM 79.0m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 272.3m - Total Current Liabilities 371.3m) / Total Assets 3.42b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 285.6m / Total Assets 3.42b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 287.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.94b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 291.3m / Total Liabilities 3.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.84 = B |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 92.6m/86.1m, Revenue 1.86b/1.67b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 38.45% / 38.29%) |
| AQI: 1.18 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.86b / 1.67b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 93.5m - CFO 369.0m) / TA 3.42b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.75 with a total of 2,076,570 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%,
over one month by +4.49%,
over three months by -10.71% and
over the past year by -0.62%.
Valvoline has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy VVV.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 26.4% |
P/E Trailing = 44.7733
P/E Forward = 18.9036
P/S = 2.3045
P/B = 12.1288
P/EG = 1.1037
Revenue TTM = 1.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 287.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 421.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 31.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 371.0m
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (calculated: Debt 2.40b - CCE 84.7m)
Enterprise Value = 6.60b USD (4.28b + Debt 2.40b - CCE 84.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.64 (Ebit TTM 287.2m / Interest Expense TTM 79.0m)
EV/FCF = 65.98x (Enterprise Value 6.60b / FCF TTM 100.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.52% (FCF TTM 100.0m / Enterprise Value 6.60b)
FCF Margin = 5.38% (FCF TTM 100.0m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = 5.03% (Net Income TTM 93.5m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 38.45% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.14b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.12% (prev 37.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.93 (Enterprise Value 6.60b / Total Assets 3.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.29% (Interest Expense 79.0m / Debt 2.40b)
Taxrate = 23.87% (14.2m / 59.5m)
NOPAT = 218.7m (EBIT 287.2m * (1 - 23.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 272.3m / Total Current Liabilities 371.3m)
Debt / Equity = 6.80 (Debt 2.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 353.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.49 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 421.3m)
Debt / FCF = 23.15 (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM 100.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 328.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.18% (Net Income 93.5m / Total Assets 3.42b)
RoE = 28.49% (Net Income TTM 93.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 328.2m)
RoCE = 14.69% (EBIT 287.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 328.2m + L.T.Debt 1.63b))
RoIC = 7.10% (NOPAT 218.7m / Invested Capital 3.08b)
WACC = 6.98% (E(4.28b)/V(6.68b) * Re(9.49%) + D(2.40b)/V(6.68b) * Rd(3.29%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -64.41 | Cagr: -1.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈69.1m ; Y1≈79.2m ; Y5≈116.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.75b - Net Debt 2.31b = -561.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 82.83 | EPS CAGR: 8.77% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.56 | Revenue CAGR: 9.81% | SUE: 1.54 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=-9% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.75 | Chg30d=+2.88% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=+20.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=+2.87% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+18.0% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73%