(W) Wayfair - NYSE
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Internet Retail | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 12.344m USD | Total Return: 86.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 278M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 69.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Negative Equity with losses - insolvent profile
High Debt/EBITDA (25.6) with thin interest coverage (-1.2)
Interest Coverage Ratio -1.2 is critical
Altman Z'' -7.58 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Choppy
Tailwinds
Tailwind
Wayfair Inc. is a large-cap U-commerce retailer specializing in furniture, décor, housewares, and home improvement products, serving customers in the United States and international markets. The company operates a portfolio of branded sites, including Wayfair, Joss & Main, AllModern, Birch Lane, Perigold, and Wayfair Professional, and sells under owned labels such as Three Posts and Mercury Row.
As a pure-play online retailer within the Consumer Discretionary sector, Wayfair sells through its digital storefronts without a traditional brick-and-mortar footprint, distinguishing it from legacy home furnishings peers. Headquartered in Boston and founded in 2002, the company listed on the NYSE in 2014.
- Housing market weakness pressures home furnishings demand
- Adjusted EBITDA improvement signals path to profitability
- Competition from Amazon and Target pressures market share
| Net Income: -305.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.85% < 20% (prev -3.29%; Δ -0.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 578.0m > Net Income -305.0m |
| Net Debt (3.28b) to EBITDA (128.0m): 25.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (131.0m) vs 12m ago 3.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.08% > 18% (prev 30.31%; Δ -0.22% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 402.5% > 50% (prev 346.7%; Δ 55.89% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM -163.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m) |
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 1.57b - Total Current Liabilities 2.06b) / Total Assets 2.87b |
| B: -1.72 (Retained Earnings -4.93b / Total Assets 2.87b) |
| C: -0.05 (EBIT TTM -163.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.14b) |
| D: -0.50 (Book Value of Equity -2.84b / Total Liabilities 5.71b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -7.58 = D |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 158.0m/140.0m, Revenue 12.7b/11.9b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 30.31% / 30.08%) |
| AQI: 1.21 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 12.7b / 11.9b) |
| TATA: -0.31 (NI -305.0m - CFO 578.0m) / TA 2.87b) |
| Beneish M = -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 94.47 with a total of 4,099,933 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.72%, over one month by +31.35%, over three months by +28.18% and over the past year by +86.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 87.50 (which is 7.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Wayfair has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.77. Therefore, it is recommended to hold W.
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 92.5 | -2.1% |
P/E Forward = 33.8983
P/S = 0.9752
P/B = 2679.4567
P/EG = 23.5004
Revenue TTM = 12.7b USD
EBIT TTM = -163.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 128.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.93b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 4.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 704.0m
Net Debt = 3.28b USD (calculated: Debt 4.34b - CCE 1.06b)
Enterprise Value = 15.6b USD (12.3b + Debt 4.34b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.21 (Ebit TTM -163.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m)
EV/FCF = 34.26x (Enterprise Value 15.6b / FCF TTM 456.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.92% (FCF TTM 456.0m / Enterprise Value 15.6b)
FCF Margin = 3.60% (FCF TTM 456.0m / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Net Margin = -2.41% (Net Income TTM -305.0m / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Gross Margin = 30.08% ((Revenue TTM 12.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.85b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.02% (prev 30.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.44 (Enterprise Value 15.6b / Total Assets 2.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.11% (Interest Expense 135.0m / Debt 4.34b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -128.8m (EBIT -163.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 1.57b / Total Current Liabilities 2.06b)
Debt / Equity = -1.53 (negative equity) (Debt 4.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -2.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 25.60 (Net Debt 3.28b / EBITDA 128.0m)
Debt / FCF = 7.19 (Net Debt 3.28b / FCF TTM 456.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -2.78b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -9.70% (Net Income -305.0m / Total Assets 2.87b)
RoE = 10.98% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -305.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -2.78b)
RoCE = -106.4% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -163.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -2.78b + L.T.Debt 2.93b))
RoIC = -58.24% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -128.8m / Invested Capital 221.1m)
WACC = 11.41% (E(12.3b)/V(16.7b) * Re(14.56%) + D(4.34b)/V(16.7b) * Rd(3.11%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.88 | Cagr: 4.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.73% ; FCFF base≈343.6m ; Y1≈393.9m ; Y5≈579.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.38 (EV 5.65b - Net Debt 3.28b = Equity 2.37b / Shares 111.0m; r=11.41% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.95 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 69.40 | Revenue CAGR: 1.67% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+0.75% | Revisions=+19% | Analysts=24
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=-7% | Analysts=24
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.79 | Chg30d=+0.55% | Revisions=-3% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.73 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+11% | GrowthEPS=+33.7% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +19%