(WM) Waste Management - Ratings and Ratios
Waste Collection, Recycling, Renewable Energy, Landfill Services
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.86% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.68% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.31% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 26.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.35% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.28 |
| Alpha | -8.59 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.459 |
| Beta | 0.202 |
| Beta Downside | 0.230 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 18.14% |
| Mean DD | 4.90% |
| Median DD | 4.23% |
Description: WM Waste Management September 26, 2025
Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) delivers a full-stack suite of environmental services across North America and parts of Western Europe, ranging from curb-side collection of municipal solid waste to the operation of landfill-gas-to-energy plants that generate renewable electricity and natural gas.
The company’s recycling footprint includes processing of cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, and construction-demolition debris, while its brokerage arm markets these commodities for third-party sellers. It also captures food- and yard-waste streams to produce mulch, compost, and soil amendments, and it offers regulated-waste compliance, hazardous-waste disposal, and secure information destruction services.
Key financial indicators (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly **$15.5 billion**, an adjusted EBITDA margin near **20 %**, and capital expenditures of about **$2.2 billion**, reflecting ongoing investment in landfill-gas projects and fleet electrification. The firm’s growth is closely tied to macro-drivers such as rising waste generation rates (U.S. municipal solid waste grew ~2 % YoY in 2023), tightening environmental regulations that favor renewable natural-gas credits, and the broader ESG trend that rewards companies with verifiable carbon-offset outputs.
From a sector perspective, WM benefits from a **high-barrier, regulated market** where scale economies and long-term service contracts create stable cash flows, while the transition to a circular economy fuels demand for advanced recycling and waste-to-energy solutions.
For a deeper quantitative view of WM’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (2.56b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.49b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.79pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -3.62% (prev -2.43%; Δ -1.19pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.86b > Net Income 2.56b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (23.19b) to EBITDA (6.93b) ratio: 3.35 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.84 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (404.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.27% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 28.92% (prev 29.32%; Δ -0.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 61.70% (prev 61.58%; Δ 0.12pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.59 (EBITDA TTM 6.93b / Interest Expense TTM 890.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.24
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 4.84b - Total Current Liabilities 5.74b) / Total Assets 45.61b |
| (B) 0.37 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 16.82b / Total Assets 45.61b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 4.08b / Avg Total Assets 40.17b |
| (D) 0.47 = Book Value of Equity 16.80b / Total Liabilities 36.09b |
| Total Rating: 2.24 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 70.03
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.18% |
| 3. FCF Margin 9.69% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.35 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.23)% |
| 7. RoE 28.79% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 94.04% |
| 9. EPS Trend 87.71% |
What is the price of WM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.85%, over one month by +9.06%, over three months by -3.12% and over the past year by -1.83%.
Is WM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the WM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 245.7 | 12.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 245.7 | 12.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 231.8 | 6.4% |
WM Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 34.0158
P/E Forward = 25.1256
P/S = 3.5056
P/B = 8.9427
P/EG = 2.503
Beta = 0.594
Revenue TTM = 24.78b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.08b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.93b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 880.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 23.19b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 110.07b USD (86.88b + Debt 23.36b - CCE 175.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.59 (Ebit TTM 4.08b / Interest Expense TTM 890.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.18% (FCF TTM 2.40b / Enterprise Value 110.07b)
FCF Margin = 9.69% (FCF TTM 2.40b / Revenue TTM 24.78b)
Net Margin = 10.35% (Net Income TTM 2.56b / Revenue TTM 24.78b)
Gross Margin = 28.92% ((Revenue TTM 24.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.19% (prev 29.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.41 (Enterprise Value 110.07b / Total Assets 45.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 225.0m / Debt 23.36b)
Taxrate = 22.19% (172.0m / 775.0m)
NOPAT = 3.18b (EBIT 4.08b * (1 - 22.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 4.84b / Total Current Liabilities 5.74b)
Debt / Equity = 2.45 (Debt 23.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.35 (Net Debt 23.19b / EBITDA 6.93b)
Debt / FCF = 9.65 (Net Debt 23.19b / FCF TTM 2.40b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.62% (Net Income 2.56b / Total Assets 45.61b)
RoE = 28.79% (Net Income TTM 2.56b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.91b)
RoCE = 13.00% (EBIT 4.08b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.91b + L.T.Debt 22.48b))
RoIC = 9.71% (NOPAT 3.18b / Invested Capital 32.69b)
WACC = 5.49% (E(86.88b)/V(110.24b) * Re(6.76%) + D(23.36b)/V(110.24b) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.10% ; FCFE base≈2.28b ; Y1≈2.25b ; Y5≈2.33b
Fair Price DCF = 102.6 (DCF Value 41.33b / Shares Outstanding 402.9m; 5y FCF grow -2.10% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 87.71 | EPS CAGR: 12.81% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.04 | Revenue CAGR: 8.91% | SUE: -0.84 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=-0.052 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=7.50 | Chg30d=-0.062 | Revisions Net=-10 | Growth EPS=+3.7% | Growth Revenue=+14.6%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.35 | Chg30d=-0.159 | Revisions Net=-18 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.6%
Additional Sources for WM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle