XPEV Stock Analysis: Xpeng | NYSE
Auto Manufacturers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.149m USD | 12M Return: -55.8% | US98422D1054 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 61.3M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPeng Inc. is a Chinese manufacturer of smart electric vehicles (EVs), designing, developing, and selling passenger cars both domestically in the Peoples Republic of China and internationally. Its vehicle lineup includes several sedans, SUVs, and a multi-purpose vehicle, featuring models such as the P7, P7+, G6, G9, and X9, along with the more mass-market MONA M03 hatchback coupe.
Beyond vehicle production, XPeng sells a vertically integrated technology stack, including its in-car operating system (XOS Tianji) and a modular electric platform (SEPA 2.0). The company also generates recurring revenue through ancillary services such as supercharging, maintenance, insurance technology support, and auto financing referral services.
XPeng is part of Chinas highly competitive new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which is the worlds largest EV market and has driven rapid growth in domestic brands. The company differentiates itself by emphasizing software, advanced driver-assistance systems, and over-the-air update capability as core elements of its smart EV business model. Founded in 2015 and headquartered in Guangzhou, XPeng listed on the NYSE in August 2020.
- MONA M03 and G7 deliveries accelerate monthly volume growth
- Gross margin expansion narrows path to profitability
- Intensifying China EV price war pressures average selling price
| Net Income: -3.11b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.27% < 20% (prev 11.29%; Δ -3.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 8.26b > Net Income -3.11b |
| Net Debt (16.3b) to EBITDA (446.7m): 36.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (478.2m) vs 12m ago -49.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.70% > 18% (prev 15.75%; Δ 4.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.27% > 50% (prev 65.23%; Δ 12.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -5.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM -2.54b / Interest Expense TTM 462.9m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 61.5b - Total Current Liabilities 55.3b) / Total Assets 102b |
| B: -0.45 (Retained Earnings -45.9b / Total Assets 102b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -2.54b / Avg Total Assets 97.0b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 27.0b / Total Liabilities 74.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.87 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 5.04b/4.49b, Revenue 75.0b/60.3b) |
| GMI: 0.76 (GM 15.75% / 20.70%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 75.0b / 60.3b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -3.11b - CFO 8.26b) / TA 102b) |
| Beneish M = -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.42 with a total of 5,531,220 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.67%, over one month by -12.04%, over three months by -29.49% and over the past year by -55.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.00 (which is 4.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Xpeng has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 18.5 | 95.9% |
Market Cap CNY = 61.2b (9.15b USD * 6.69275 USD.CNY)
P/E Forward = 69.9301
P/S = 0.1213
P/B = 2.4437
Revenue TTM = 75.0b CNY
EBIT TTM = -2.54b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 446.7m CNY
Long Term Debt = 8.98b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 25.2b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 48.0b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.10b
Net Debt = 16.3b CNY (calculated: Debt 48.0b - CCE 31.7b)
Enterprise Value = 77.5b CNY (61.2b + Debt 48.0b - CCE 31.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.49 (Ebit TTM -2.54b / Interest Expense TTM 462.9m)
EV/FCF = 15.78x (Enterprise Value 77.5b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
FCF Yield = 6.34% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Enterprise Value 77.5b)
FCF Margin = 6.55% (FCF TTM 4.91b / Revenue TTM 75.0b)
Net Margin = -4.15% (Net Income TTM -3.11b / Revenue TTM 75.0b)
Gross Margin = 20.70% ((Revenue TTM 75.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.68% (prev 20.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 77.5b / Total Assets 102b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.97% (Interest Expense 462.9m / Debt 48.0b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.01b (EBIT -2.54b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.11 (Total Current Assets 61.5b / Total Current Liabilities 55.3b)
Debt / Equity = 1.78 (Debt 48.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 27.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 36.41 (Net Debt 16.3b / EBITDA 446.7m)
Debt / FCF = 3.31 (Net Debt 16.3b / FCF TTM 4.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 28.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.20% (Net Income -3.11b / Total Assets 102b)
RoE = -10.75% (Net Income TTM -3.11b / Total Stockholder Equity 28.9b)
RoCE = -6.70% (EBIT -2.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 28.9b + L.T.Debt 8.98b))
RoIC = -2.96% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.01b / Invested Capital 67.7b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(61.2b)/V(109b) * Re(9.12%) + D(48.0b)/V(109b) * Rd(0.97%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.43 | Cagr: -45.65%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈4.91b ; Y1≈4.93b ; Y5≈5.22b
[DCF] Fair Price = 82.93 (EV 81.3b - Net Debt 16.3b = Equity 65.0b / Shares 783.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.26 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 55.91% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.90 | Chg30d=-309.09% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.46 | Chg30d=-61.02% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-620.1% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.24 | Chg30d=-59.51% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+135.7% | GrowthRev=+26.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)