XPO Stock Analysis: XPO Logistics | NYSE
Trucking | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 24.712m USD | 12M Return: 55.4% | US9837931008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 195M
EPS Trend: 87.4%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 56.5%
Qual. Beats: 5
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPO, Inc. is a U.S.-based freight transportation provider operating across North America and Europe. Listed on the NYSE as a large-cap industrial under the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry, the company is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, was founded in 1989, and adopted its current name in December 2022 after being known as XPO Logistics, Inc.
The business is organized into two segments. The North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment offers day-definite domestic and cross-border services spanning the United States, Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. LTL carriers consolidate smaller freight loads from multiple shippers into shared trailers, which differentiates the service from full-truckload haulage.
The European Transportation segment operates in France, the United Kingdom, and the rest of Europe, providing dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, warehousing, and multimodal solutions to customers in the consumer, trade, and industrial end markets. The breadth of services across both segments positions XPO as an asset-based and asset-light logistics provider rather than a pure transportation carrier.
- LTL pricing power surges following Yellows bankruptcy exit
- North American LTL volume trends drive operating ratio improvement
- European industrial slowdown pressures Transportation segment revenue
| Net Income: 404.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.23% < 20% (prev 0.30%; Δ -0.07% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.09b > Net Income 404.0m |
| Net Debt (4.47b) to EBITDA (1.29b): 3.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.77% > 18% (prev 11.34%; Δ 1.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 104.1% > 50% (prev 98.48%; Δ 5.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.58 > 6 (EBIT TTM 756.0m / Interest Expense TTM 211.0m) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 1.81b - Total Current Liabilities 1.79b) / Total Assets 8.33b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 1.15b / Total Assets 8.33b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 756.0m / Avg Total Assets 8.23b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 6.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.41 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 1.27b/1.13b, Revenue 8.57b/8.01b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 11.34% / 12.77%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 8.57b / 8.01b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 404.0m - CFO 1.09b) / TA 8.33b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 196.84 with a total of 708,694 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.74%, over one month by -6.54%, over three months by -6.59% and over the past year by +55.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 188.10 (which is 4.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
XPO Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPO.
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 231.8 | 17.8% |
P/E Trailing = 62.0765
P/E Forward = 41.3223
P/S = 2.8822
P/B = 12.5954
P/EG = 2.129
Revenue TTM = 8.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 756.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.29b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.05b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 329.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 782.0m
Net Debt = 4.47b USD (calculated: Debt 4.77b - CCE 298.0m)
Enterprise Value = 29.2b USD (24.7b + Debt 4.77b - CCE 298.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.58 (Ebit TTM 756.0m / Interest Expense TTM 211.0m)
EV/FCF = 49.63x (Enterprise Value 29.2b / FCF TTM 588.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.01% (FCF TTM 588.0m / Enterprise Value 29.2b)
FCF Margin = 6.86% (FCF TTM 588.0m / Revenue TTM 8.57b)
Net Margin = 4.71% (Net Income TTM 404.0m / Revenue TTM 8.57b)
Gross Margin = 12.77% ((Revenue TTM 8.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.95% (prev 11.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.50 (Enterprise Value 29.2b / Total Assets 8.33b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.42% (Interest Expense 211.0m / Debt 4.77b)
Taxrate = 25.87% (141.0m / 545.0m)
NOPAT = 560.4m (EBIT 756.0m * (1 - 25.87%))
Current Ratio = 1.01 (Total Current Assets 1.81b / Total Current Liabilities 1.79b)
Debt / Equity = 2.43 (Debt 4.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.47 (Net Debt 4.47b / EBITDA 1.29b)
Debt / FCF = 7.61 (Net Debt 4.47b / FCF TTM 588.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.91% (Net Income 404.0m / Total Assets 8.33b)
RoE = 21.57% (Net Income TTM 404.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
RoCE = 15.37% (EBIT 756.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 3.05b))
RoIC = 8.53% (NOPAT 560.4m / Invested Capital 6.57b)
WACC = 9.32% (E(24.7b)/V(29.5b) * Re(10.49%) + D(4.77b)/V(29.5b) * Rd(4.42%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -78.17 | Cagr: -0.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.88% ; FCFF base≈414.4m ; Y1≈475.0m ; Y5≈699.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.51 (EV 8.98b - Net Debt 4.47b = Equity 4.51b / Shares 117.1m; r=9.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 87.41 | EPS CAGR: 12.69% | SUE: 3.29 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 56.45 | Revenue CAGR: 14.85% | SUE: 2.87 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.58 | Chg30d=+15.76% | Revisions=+87% | Analysts=23
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.44 | Chg30d=+10.06% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+46.0% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.41 | Chg30d=+5.71% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+17.8% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +93% (up=63, down=1)