XPO Stock Analysis: XPO Logistics | NYSE
Trucking | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 25.747m USD | 12M Return: 67.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 219M
EPS Trend: 67.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 68.4%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPO, Inc. is a U.S.-based freight transportation provider operating across North America and Europe. Listed on the NYSE as a large-cap industrial under the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry, the company is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, was founded in 1989, and adopted its current name in December 2022 after being known as XPO Logistics, Inc.
The business is organized into two segments. The North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment offers day-definite domestic and cross-border services spanning the United States, Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. LTL carriers consolidate smaller freight loads from multiple shippers into shared trailers, which differentiates the service from full-truckload haulage.
The European Transportation segment operates in France, the United Kingdom, and the rest of Europe, providing dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, warehousing, and multimodal solutions to customers in the consumer, trade, and industrial end markets. The breadth of services across both segments positions XPO as an asset-based and asset-light logistics provider rather than a pure transportation carrier.
- LTL pricing power surges following Yellows bankruptcy exit
- North American LTL volume trends drive operating ratio improvement
- European industrial slowdown pressures Transportation segment revenue
| Net Income: 348.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.19% < 20% (prev 0.36%; Δ -0.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.03b > Net Income 348.0m |
| Net Debt (4.55b) to EBITDA (1.22b): 3.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.0m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.18% > 18% (prev 11.30%; Δ 0.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 103.3% > 50% (prev 101.6%; Δ 1.69% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM 686.0m / Interest Expense TTM 216.0m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 1.68b - Total Current Liabilities 1.69b) / Total Assets 8.18b |
| B: 0.12 (Retained Earnings 989.0m / Total Assets 8.18b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 686.0m / Avg Total Assets 8.03b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 1.85b / Total Liabilities 6.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.26 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 1.16b/1.08b, Revenue 8.30b/8.01b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 11.30% / 12.18%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 8.30b / 8.01b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 348.0m - CFO 1.03b) / TA 8.18b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 214.72 with a total of 1,048,666 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.26%, over one month by +6.72%, over three months by -5.66% and over the past year by +67.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 203.80 (which is 5.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
XPO Logistics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPO.
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 228.4 | 6.4% |
P/E Trailing = 75.1818
P/E Forward = 45.8716
P/S = 3.042
P/B = 13.9172
P/EG = 2.382
Revenue TTM = 8.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 686.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.22b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 268.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 755.0m
Net Debt = 4.55b USD (calculated: Debt 4.79b - CCE 237.0m)
Enterprise Value = 30.3b USD (25.7b + Debt 4.79b - CCE 237.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.18 (Ebit TTM 686.0m / Interest Expense TTM 216.0m)
EV/FCF = 66.29x (Enterprise Value 30.3b / FCF TTM 457.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.51% (FCF TTM 457.0m / Enterprise Value 30.3b)
FCF Margin = 5.51% (FCF TTM 457.0m / Revenue TTM 8.30b)
Net Margin = 4.19% (Net Income TTM 348.0m / Revenue TTM 8.30b)
Gross Margin = 12.18% ((Revenue TTM 8.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.29b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.40% (prev 11.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.70 (Enterprise Value 30.3b / Total Assets 8.18b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.51% (Interest Expense 216.0m / Debt 4.79b)
Taxrate = 25.96% (122.0m / 470.0m)
NOPAT = 507.9m (EBIT 686.0m * (1 - 25.96%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 1.68b / Total Current Liabilities 1.69b)
Debt / Equity = 2.59 (Debt 4.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.74 (Net Debt 4.55b / EBITDA 1.22b)
Debt / FCF = 9.95 (Net Debt 4.55b / FCF TTM 457.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.33% (Net Income 348.0m / Total Assets 8.18b)
RoE = 19.04% (Net Income TTM 348.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.83b)
RoCE = 13.72% (EBIT 686.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.83b + L.T.Debt 3.17b))
RoIC = 7.79% (NOPAT 507.9m / Invested Capital 6.52b)
WACC = 9.45% (E(25.7b)/V(30.5b) * Re(10.58%) + D(4.79b)/V(30.5b) * Rd(4.51%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -2.59 | Cagr: 0.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.51% ; FCFF base≈320.6m ; Y1≈367.5m ; Y5≈540.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.36 (EV 6.82b - Net Debt 4.55b = Equity 2.27b / Shares 117.4m; r=9.45% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.39 | EPS CAGR: 7.44% | SUE: 2.04 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 68.44 | Revenue CAGR: 25.21% | SUE: 2.40 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.46 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=+77% | Analysts=22
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=-1.65% | Revisions=+73% | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.91 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+53% | GrowthEPS=+31.7% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.03 | Chg30d=+0.67% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+22.8% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +80% (up=39, down=3)