(XPO) XPO Logistics - Overview
Stock: LTL, Truckload, Brokerage, Last-Mile, Warehousing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 27.69 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.523 |
| Beta Downside | 1.398 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.91 |
Description: XPO XPO Logistics January 03, 2026
XPO, Inc. operates freight transportation services across North America and Europe through two primary segments: a North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business that offers dense, day-definite shipping to the U.S., Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean; and a European Transportation business that provides a mix of dedicated truckload, LTL, brokerage, managed transportation, last-mile delivery, freight forwarding, warehousing, and multimodal solutions (road-rail, road-short sea) to customers in consumer, trade, and industrial markets. The company, headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, rebranded from XPO Logistics, Inc. to XPO, Inc. in December 2022.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show total revenue of roughly $9.9 billion, with the North American LTL segment contributing about 55 % of that total and delivering an adjusted EBITDA margin near 6 %. Volume growth is being driven by sustained e-commerce demand and near-shoring trends, while the business remains sensitive to macro-economic factors such as freight-rate cycles, fuel price volatility, and a persistent driver labor shortage that compresses capacity and pricing power.
For a deeper, data-driven look at XPO’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics platform ValueRay for additional quantitative insights.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 316.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.92% < 20% (prev 1.05%; Δ -0.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 982.0m > Net Income 316.0m |
| Net Debt (3.78b) to EBITDA (1.25b): 3.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.0m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.99% > 18% (prev 0.11%; Δ 1188 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 102.6% > 50% (prev 104.7%; Δ -2.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.33 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.25b / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.15
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.63b - Total Current Liabilities 1.55b) / Total Assets 8.19b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 888.0m / Total Assets 8.19b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 729.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.95b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 701.0m / Total Liabilities 6.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.15 = BB |
Beneish M -3.14
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 1.03b/977.0m, Revenue 8.16b/8.07b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 11.99% / 11.32%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 8.16b / 8.07b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 316.0m - CFO 982.0m) / TA 8.19b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of XPO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +37.47%, over one month by +35.28%, over three months by +49.45% and over the past year by +38.60%.
Is XPO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the XPO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 160.2 | -21.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 160.2 | -21.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 320.4 | 57.4% |
XPO Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 42.0168
P/S = 2.7007
P/B = 11.5989
P/EG = 2.9335
Revenue TTM = 8.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 729.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.25b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 226.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.78b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 25.57b USD (21.79b + Debt 4.09b - CCE 310.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.33 (Ebit TTM 729.0m / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m)
EV/FCF = 78.67x (Enterprise Value 25.57b / FCF TTM 325.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.27% (FCF TTM 325.0m / Enterprise Value 25.57b)
FCF Margin = 3.98% (FCF TTM 325.0m / Revenue TTM 8.16b)
Net Margin = 3.87% (Net Income TTM 316.0m / Revenue TTM 8.16b)
Gross Margin = 11.99% ((Revenue TTM 8.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.54% (prev 12.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.12 (Enterprise Value 25.57b / Total Assets 8.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.30% (Interest Expense 53.0m / Debt 4.09b)
Taxrate = 35.16% (32.0m / 91.0m)
NOPAT = 472.6m (EBIT 729.0m * (1 - 35.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 1.63b / Total Current Liabilities 1.55b)
Debt / Equity = 2.20 (Debt 4.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.02 (Net Debt 3.78b / EBITDA 1.25b)
Debt / FCF = 11.63 (Net Debt 3.78b / FCF TTM 325.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.97% (Net Income 316.0m / Total Assets 8.19b)
RoE = 17.81% (Net Income TTM 316.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.77b)
RoCE = 14.59% (EBIT 729.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.77b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 9.21% (NOPAT 472.6m / Invested Capital 5.13b)
WACC = 9.84% (E(21.79b)/V(25.88b) * Re(11.53%) + D(4.09b)/V(25.88b) * Rd(1.30%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 11.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.39% ; FCFF base≈201.0m ; Y1≈131.9m ; Y5≈60.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 894.7m - Net Debt 3.78b = -2.89b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -30.31 | EPS CAGR: -8.93% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 25.62 | Revenue CAGR: 1.61% | SUE: 2.72 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-8 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.37 | Chg30d=-0.042 | Revisions Net=-17 | Growth EPS=+17.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.56 | Chg30d=-0.030 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+27.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.9%