(XPO) XPO Logistics - Ratings and Ratios
LTL, Truckload, Brokerage, Warehousing, Last-Mile
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 66.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.12% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 |
| Alpha | -27.02 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.416 |
| Beta | 1.493 |
| Beta Downside | 1.462 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.19% |
| Mean DD | 11.98% |
| Median DD | 11.25% |
Description: XPO XPO Logistics October 30, 2025
XPO, Inc. (NYSE:XPO) operates freight transportation services across North America and Europe, split into two reporting segments: North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL business focuses on high-density, day-definite shipments within the U.S., Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean, while the European segment provides a broad suite of logistics solutions-including dedicated truckload, LTL, brokerage, managed transportation, last-mile delivery, freight forwarding, warehousing, and multimodal road-rail/short-sea services-to customers in consumer, trade and industrial markets.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of $9.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of ≈ 6.5 %, and a 4.2 % YoY increase in total truckload volumes, driven largely by e-commerce and reshoring trends. The company’s asset-light model yields a capital-expenditure intensity of roughly $0.15 per revenue dollar, well below the industry average of $0.25, reflecting its reliance on technology-enabled brokerage and managed-service contracts.
Macro-level drivers that materially affect XPO’s outlook include: (1) freight rate volatility tied to macro-economic cycles and fuel price swings; (2) persistent driver and equipment labor shortages that pressure capacity utilization and pricing power; and (3) the continued acceleration of e-commerce and omnichannel fulfillment, which expands demand for last-mile and cross-border LTL services.
For a deeper, data-driven view of XPO’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (332.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 484.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 12.86pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 0.40% (prev 1.12%; Δ -0.73pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 946.0m > Net Income 332.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (3.77b) to EBITDA (1.18b) ratio: 3.20 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.02 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (120.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.0% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.57% (prev 11.45%; Δ 0.12pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 100.1% (prev 102.1%; Δ -1.97pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.04 (EBITDA TTM 1.18b / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.01
| (A) 0.00 = (Total Current Assets 1.70b - Total Current Liabilities 1.67b) / Total Assets 8.19b |
| (B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 829.0m / Total Assets 8.19b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 666.0m / Avg Total Assets 8.06b |
| (D) 0.10 = Book Value of Equity 621.0m / Total Liabilities 6.37b |
| Total Rating: 1.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 50.08
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.17% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.84% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.26 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.20 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.24)% |
| 7. RoE 19.42% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 18.61% |
| 9. EPS Trend -37.55% |
What is the price of XPO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.36%, over one month by +1.53%, over three months by +7.77% and over the past year by -6.90%.
Is XPO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the XPO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 149.7 | 4.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 149.7 | 4.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 195 | 36.4% |
XPO Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 48.1295
P/E Forward = 30.1205
P/S = 1.953
P/B = 8.5619
P/EG = 2.1087
Beta = 1.813
Revenue TTM = 8.07b USD
EBIT TTM = 666.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.18b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 277.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.77b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.53b USD (15.76b + Debt 4.11b - CCE 335.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.04 (Ebit TTM 666.0m / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.17% (FCF TTM 229.0m / Enterprise Value 19.53b)
FCF Margin = 2.84% (FCF TTM 229.0m / Revenue TTM 8.07b)
Net Margin = 4.12% (Net Income TTM 332.0m / Revenue TTM 8.07b)
Gross Margin = 11.57% ((Revenue TTM 8.07b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.84% (prev 12.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.39 (Enterprise Value 19.53b / Total Assets 8.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.31% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 4.11b)
Taxrate = 26.79% (30.0m / 112.0m)
NOPAT = 487.6m (EBIT 666.0m * (1 - 26.79%))
Current Ratio = 1.02 (Total Current Assets 1.70b / Total Current Liabilities 1.67b)
Debt / Equity = 2.26 (Debt 4.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.20 (Net Debt 3.77b / EBITDA 1.18b)
Debt / FCF = 16.48 (Net Debt 3.77b / FCF TTM 229.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.05% (Net Income 332.0m / Total Assets 8.19b)
RoE = 19.42% (Net Income TTM 332.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.71b)
RoCE = 13.51% (EBIT 666.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.71b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 9.57% (NOPAT 487.6m / Invested Capital 5.09b)
WACC = 9.34% (E(15.76b)/V(19.87b) * Re(11.52%) + D(4.11b)/V(19.87b) * Rd(1.31%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 11.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.57% ; FCFE base≈229.0m ; Y1≈150.3m ; Y5≈68.8m
Fair Price DCF = 7.26 (DCF Value 851.9m / Shares Outstanding 117.4m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -37.55 | EPS CAGR: -5.82% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 18.61 | Revenue CAGR: -11.66% | SUE: 1.63 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.92 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=15
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=+0.014 | Revisions Net=-11 | Growth EPS=+22.8% | Growth Revenue=+4.2%
Additional Sources for XPO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle