(YMM) Full Truck Alliance - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: China •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US35969L1089
Stock: Freight Matching, Brokerage, Transaction, Credit, Insurance
Total Rating 20
Risk 65
Buy Signal -0.56
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.72% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.93% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 33.33% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 5.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.21 |
| Alpha | -27.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.936 |
| Beta Downside | 1.279 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.42 |
Description: YMM Full Truck Alliance January 03, 2026
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (NYSE:YMM) runs a digital freight marketplace that links shippers with truck drivers across mainland China and Hong Kong, offering services that range from freight matching and brokerage to credit, insurance, software, electronic toll collection, and energy solutions. Founded in 2011 and headquartered in Guiyang, the firm positions itself as a technology-enabled logistics platform within the GICS Application Software sub-industry.
As of the most recent filings, YMM reported approximately $30 billion of gross merchandise volume in 2023 and a year-over-year revenue increase of roughly 45 %, driven by a surge in e-commerce-related shipments and ongoing urbanization. The platform now serves over 2.5 million registered truckers, while its credit-and-insurance products have helped reduce payment defaults, a key KPI in the fragmented Chinese trucking market. Macro-level, the sector benefits from China’s “dual-circulation” policy, which emphasizes domestic logistics efficiency, but is also exposed to regulatory tightening on ride-hailing-style freight apps.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of YMM’s valuation dynamics, you might find ValueRay’s research tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 3.98b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 146.3% < 20% (prev 230.7%; Δ -84.44% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 2.97b > Net Income 3.98b |
| Net Debt (-5.70b) to EBITDA (4.39b): -1.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.3m) vs 12m ago -94.99% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.10% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 6933 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.45% > 50% (prev 25.79%; Δ 3.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.54 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.39b / Interest Expense TTM -3.07b) |
Altman Z'' 0.94
| A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 21.71b - Total Current Liabilities 3.47b) / Total Assets 44.10b |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -8.01b / Total Assets 44.10b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.67b / Avg Total Assets 42.36b) |
| D: -1.37 (Book Value of Equity -5.04b / Total Liabilities 3.67b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.94 = BB |
Beneish M -2.44
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 5.06b/4.35b, Revenue 12.47b/10.47b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 70.10% / 76.42%) |
| AQI: 1.62 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 12.47b / 10.47b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 3.98b - CFO 2.97b) / TA 44.10b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.44 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of YMM shares?
As of February 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.92 with a total of 3,991,914 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.20%, over one month by -14.48%, over three months by -20.45% and over the past year by -15.14%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.20%, over one month by -14.48%, over three months by -20.45% and over the past year by -15.14%.
Is YMM a buy, sell or hold?
Full Truck Alliance has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy YMM.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the YMM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.2 | 33.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.2 | 33.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.5 | -4.3% |
YMM Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
Market Cap CNY = 73.62b (10.61b USD * 6.9418 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 18.4364
P/E Forward = 19.4932
P/S = 0.8504
P/B = 1.8815
Revenue TTM = 12.47b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.67b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 4.39b CNY
Long Term Debt = 44.9m CNY (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.0m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44.9m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.70b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 58.19b CNY (73.62b + Debt 44.9m - CCE 15.48b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.54 (Ebit TTM 1.67b / Interest Expense TTM -3.07b)
EV/FCF = 20.10x (Enterprise Value 58.19b / FCF TTM 2.90b)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Enterprise Value 58.19b)
FCF Margin = 23.21% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Revenue TTM 12.47b)
Net Margin = 31.90% (Net Income TTM 3.98b / Revenue TTM 12.47b)
Gross Margin = 70.10% ((Revenue TTM 12.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.20% (prev 61.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.32 (Enterprise Value 58.19b / Total Assets 44.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -6841 % (Interest Expense -3.07b / Debt 44.9m)
Taxrate = 22.98% (274.9m / 1.20b)
NOPAT = 1.29b (EBIT 1.67b * (1 - 22.98%))
Current Ratio = 6.26 (Total Current Assets 21.71b / Total Current Liabilities 3.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 44.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 39.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.30 (Net Debt -5.70b / EBITDA 4.39b)
Debt / FCF = -1.97 (Net Debt -5.70b / FCF TTM 2.90b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 38.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.39% (Net Income 3.98b / Total Assets 44.10b)
RoE = 10.31% (Net Income TTM 3.98b / Total Stockholder Equity 38.60b)
RoCE = 4.32% (EBIT 1.67b / Capital Employed (Equity 38.60b + L.T.Debt 44.9m))
RoIC = 3.33% (NOPAT 1.29b / Invested Capital 38.60b)
WACC = 9.35% (E(73.62b)/V(73.67b) * Re(9.36%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -77.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.99% ; FCFF base≈2.60b ; Y1≈3.21b ; Y5≈5.47b
Fair Price DCF = 83.21 (EV 72.47b - Net Debt -5.70b = Equity 78.16b / Shares 939.3m; r=9.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 65.67 | EPS CAGR: 42.46% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.35 | Revenue CAGR: 25.58% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+0.097 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.78 | Chg30d=-0.414 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+5.1% | Growth Revenue=-2.9%
P/E Trailing = 18.4364
P/E Forward = 19.4932
P/S = 0.8504
P/B = 1.8815
Revenue TTM = 12.47b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.67b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 4.39b CNY
Long Term Debt = 44.9m CNY (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.0m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 44.9m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.70b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 58.19b CNY (73.62b + Debt 44.9m - CCE 15.48b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.54 (Ebit TTM 1.67b / Interest Expense TTM -3.07b)
EV/FCF = 20.10x (Enterprise Value 58.19b / FCF TTM 2.90b)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Enterprise Value 58.19b)
FCF Margin = 23.21% (FCF TTM 2.90b / Revenue TTM 12.47b)
Net Margin = 31.90% (Net Income TTM 3.98b / Revenue TTM 12.47b)
Gross Margin = 70.10% ((Revenue TTM 12.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 52.20% (prev 61.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.32 (Enterprise Value 58.19b / Total Assets 44.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -6841 % (Interest Expense -3.07b / Debt 44.9m)
Taxrate = 22.98% (274.9m / 1.20b)
NOPAT = 1.29b (EBIT 1.67b * (1 - 22.98%))
Current Ratio = 6.26 (Total Current Assets 21.71b / Total Current Liabilities 3.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 44.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 39.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.30 (Net Debt -5.70b / EBITDA 4.39b)
Debt / FCF = -1.97 (Net Debt -5.70b / FCF TTM 2.90b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 38.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.39% (Net Income 3.98b / Total Assets 44.10b)
RoE = 10.31% (Net Income TTM 3.98b / Total Stockholder Equity 38.60b)
RoCE = 4.32% (EBIT 1.67b / Capital Employed (Equity 38.60b + L.T.Debt 44.9m))
RoIC = 3.33% (NOPAT 1.29b / Invested Capital 38.60b)
WACC = 9.35% (E(73.62b)/V(73.67b) * Re(9.36%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -77.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.99% ; FCFF base≈2.60b ; Y1≈3.21b ; Y5≈5.47b
Fair Price DCF = 83.21 (EV 72.47b - Net Debt -5.70b = Equity 78.16b / Shares 939.3m; r=9.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 65.67 | EPS CAGR: 42.46% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.35 | Revenue CAGR: 25.58% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+0.097 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.78 | Chg30d=-0.414 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+5.1% | Growth Revenue=-2.9%