(YMM) Full Truck Alliance - Overview

Sector: Technology | Industry: Software - Application | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 9.225m USD | Total Return: -29.3% in 12m

Freight Matching, Logistics Software, Financial Services, Toll Collection
Total Rating 36
Safety 69
Buy Signal -0.29
Software - Application
Industry Rotation: -4.6
Market Cap: 9.22B
Avg Turnover: 72.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility48.7%
VaR 5th Pctl7.43%
VaR vs Median-8.27%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Rel. Str. IBD9.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group40.1
Character TTM
Beta1.209
Beta Downside1.436
Hurst Exponent0.436
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD41.92%
CAGR/Max DD0.25
CAGR/Mean DD0.75
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of YMM over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.02, "2021-09": -0.03, "2021-12": 0.23, "2022-03": 0.17, "2022-06": 0.25, "2022-09": 0.46, "2022-12": 0.06, "2023-03": 0.48, "2023-06": 0.68, "2023-09": 0.78, "2023-12": 0.69, "2024-03": 0.1, "2024-06": 0.91, "2024-09": 1.17, "2024-12": 0.99, "2025-03": 1.32, "2025-06": 1.27, "2025-09": 0.93, "2025-12": 1.01, "2026-03": 1.15,
EPS CAGR: 46.23%
EPS Trend: 94.1%
Last SUE: 2.60
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of YMM over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 1118.821, 2021-09: 1241.667, 2021-12: 1429.377, 2022-03: 1332.56, 2022-06: 1670.051, 2022-09: 1808.56, 2022-12: 1922.473, 2023-03: 1702.257, 2023-06: 2062.028, 2023-09: 2263.917, 2023-12: 2407.957, 2024-03: 2268.713, 2024-06: 2764.283, 2024-09: 3031.388, 2024-12: 3174.254, 2025-03: 2699.909, 2025-06: 3239.106, 2025-09: 3358.242, 2025-12: 3148.537478, 2026-03: 2831.156748,
Rev. CAGR: 22.63%
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Last SUE: 0.09
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Description: YMM Full Truck Alliance

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) operates a comprehensive digital freight platform in China and Hong Kong, functioning as a primary intermediary between shippers and truck drivers. The companys core business model utilizes a freight-matching ecosystem that integrates listing, brokerage, and transaction services to streamline logistics across various cargo types and distances.

Beyond freight matching, the company provides a suite of value-added services including credit solutions, insurance brokerage, electronic toll collection, and energy services. This platform-based approach addresses the fragmentation of the Chinese trucking industry, where millions of independent operators historically relied on inefficient physical information boards to secure loads.

The digitization of logistics in the Peoples Republic of China represents a transition toward higher asset utilization and reduced empty-mile journeys for heavy-duty trucks. Investors can use ValueRay to further analyze the companys competitive positioning within the broader logistics software sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Increasing digital platform adoption among Chinese shippers boosts high-margin transaction fee revenue
  • Expansion of value-added financial services diversifies income streams beyond core freight matching
  • Regulatory scrutiny of data security and antitrust policies impacts long-term valuation multiples
  • Fluctuations in Chinas industrial production and fuel prices dictate nationwide trucking demand
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 4.11b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.25 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 161.8% < 20% (prev 204.6%; Δ -42.73% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 4.63b > Net Income 4.11b
Net Debt (-18.4b) to EBITDA (4.01b): -4.60 < 3
Current Ratio: 6.93 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.04b) vs 12m ago -0.36% < -2%
Gross Margin: 63.17% > 18% (prev 89.97%; Δ -26.81% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 28.89% > 50% (prev 27.51%; Δ 1.38% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 10.00
A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 23.8b - Total Current Liabilities 3.43b) / Total Assets 44.6b
B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -6.10b / Total Assets 44.6b)
C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 3.91b / Avg Total Assets 43.5b)
D: 10.98 (Book Value of Equity 39.8b / Total Liabilities 3.62b)
Altman-Z'' = 14.67 = AAA
Beneish M -2.48
DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 4.36b/4.53b, Revenue 12.6b/11.7b)
GMI: 1.42 (GM 89.97% / 63.17%)
AQI: 1.32 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.34)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 12.6b / 11.7b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 4.11b - CFO 4.63b) / TA 44.6b)
Beneish M = -2.48 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of YMM shares?

As of June 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.59 with a total of 7,486,979 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.61%, over one month by -3.27%, over three months by -2.92% and over the past year by -29.31%.

Is YMM a buy, sell or hold?

Full Truck Alliance has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YMM.

  • StrongBuy: 10
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the YMM price?
Analysts Target Price 12.6 46.6%
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 01 June 2026
Market Cap USD = 9.22b (9.22b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap CNY = 62.4b (9.22b USD * 6.7695 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 14.9492
P/E Forward = 19.4932
P/S = 0.7299
P/B = 1.5538
Revenue TTM = 12.6b CNY
EBIT TTM = 3.91b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 4.01b CNY
Long Term Debt = 1.10m CNY (estimated: total debt 25.6m - short term 24.5m)
Short Term Debt = 24.5m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 25.6m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 25.7m already included)
Net Debt = -18.4b CNY (calculated: Debt 25.6m - CCE 18.5b)
Enterprise Value = 44.0b CNY (62.4b + Debt 25.6m - CCE 18.5b)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 3.91b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = 9.78x (Enterprise Value 44.0b / FCF TTM 4.50b)
FCF Yield = 10.22% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Enterprise Value 44.0b)
FCF Margin = 35.76% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Revenue TTM 12.6b)
Net Margin = 32.69% (Net Income TTM 4.11b / Revenue TTM 12.6b)
Gross Margin = 63.17% ((Revenue TTM 12.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.51% (prev 67.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 44.0b / Total Assets 44.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 25.6m)
Taxrate = 18.40% (936.7m / 5.09b)
NOPAT = 3.19b (EBIT 3.91b * (1 - 18.40%))
Current Ratio = 6.93 (Total Current Assets 23.8b / Total Current Liabilities 3.43b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 25.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 39.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.60 (Net Debt -18.4b / EBITDA 4.01b)
Debt / FCF = -4.10 (Net Debt -18.4b / FCF TTM 4.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 39.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.44% (Net Income 4.11b / Total Assets 44.6b)
RoE = 10.39% (Net Income TTM 4.11b / Total Stockholder Equity 39.6b)
RoCE = 9.88% (EBIT 3.91b / Capital Employed (Equity 39.6b + L.T.Debt 1.10m))
RoIC = 7.86% (NOPAT 3.19b / Invested Capital 40.6b)
WACC = 10.24% (E(62.4b)/V(62.5b) * Re(10.24%) + D(25.6m)/V(62.5b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -13.48 | Cagr: -0.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.12% ; FCFF base≈3.86b ; Y1≈4.42b ; Y5≈6.51b
[DCF] Fair Price = 98.53 (EV 73.4b - Net Debt -18.4b = Equity 91.9b / Shares 932.5m; r=10.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.12 | EPS CAGR: 46.23% | SUE: 2.60 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.33 | Revenue CAGR: 22.63% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=+7.39% | Revisions=+43% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.24 | Chg30d=-4.78% | Revisions=-14% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.93 | Chg30d=+6.31% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+8.9% | GrowthRev=-6.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.78 | Chg30d=+0.96% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56%