YPF Stock Analysis: YPF Sociedad Anonima | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 19.619m USD | 12M Return: 88% | US9842451000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 57.9M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 88.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
YPF Sociedad Anónima is an Argentine integrated energy company that operates across the full oil and gas value chain, from exploration and production through refining, marketing, petrochemicals, and emerging new energies. Its business is organized into four segments: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies, with operations primarily concentrated in Argentina and South America.
In addition to crude oil and natural gas production, YPF runs a downstream operation that produces refined products, petrochemicals, and a diversified set of specialty products such as agribusiness inputs, fertilizers, crop protection chemicals, flours, oils, grains, asphalts, naphtha, and petroleum coke. The company also handles natural gas transportation and commercialization, natural gas liquids fractionation (producing ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline), LNG liquefaction development, and power generation activities. It was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires.
As one of the largest integrated oil and gas producers in Latin America, YPF is the flagship state-influenced energy company of Argentina, with the Argentine government holding a controlling interest through energy reforms initiated in the 2010s. Its integrated model is characteristic of major energy players in the region, combining upstream resource development with refining capacity and a growing push into LNG and renewables to diversify beyond traditional hydrocarbons.
- Vaca Muerta shale output expansion drives upstream production growth
- Argentine peso depreciation pressures dollar-denominated debt servicing costs
- Government fuel price caps and regulatory intervention compress downstream margins
| Net Income: 1038b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.63% < 20% (prev -15.64%; Δ 13.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 2527b > Net Income 1038b |
| Net Debt (12500b) to EBITDA (10502b): 1.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (387.5m) vs 12m ago 0.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.46% > 18% (prev 25.69%; Δ 9.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.77% > 50% (prev 40.71%; Δ 29.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6032b / Interest Expense TTM 1024b) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 10917b - Total Current Liabilities 11688b) / Total Assets 48386b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 2442b / Total Assets 48386b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 6032b / Avg Total Assets 42062b) |
| D: 0.64 (Book Value of Equity 18654b / Total Liabilities 29274b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.69 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.53 (Receivables 3128b/2906b, Revenue 29345b/14549b) |
| GMI: 0.72 (GM 25.69% / 35.46%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 2.02 (Revenue 29345b / 14549b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 1038b - CFO 2527b) / TA 48386b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 51.97 with a total of 717,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.42%, over one month by -7.74%, over three months by +4.99% and over the past year by +87.96%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 47.30 (which is 9% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
YPF Sociedad Anonima has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YPF.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 61.4 | 18.1% |
Market Cap ARS = 29758b (19.6b USD * 1516.75 USD.ARS)
P/E Trailing = 26.3368
P/E Forward = 5.0277
P/S = 0.0007
P/B = 1.6881
P/EG = 0.1007
Revenue TTM = 29345b ARS
EBIT TTM = 6032b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 10502b ARS
Long Term Debt = 8.52b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2854b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16195b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 714.0m
Net Debt = 12500b ARS (calculated: Debt 16195b - CCE 3695b)
Enterprise Value = 42258b ARS (29758b + Debt 16195b - CCE 3695b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.89 (Ebit TTM 6032b / Interest Expense TTM 1024b)
EV/FCF = 91.17x (Enterprise Value 42258b / FCF TTM 464b)
FCF Yield = 1.10% (FCF TTM 464b / Enterprise Value 42258b)
FCF Margin = 1.58% (FCF TTM 464b / Revenue TTM 29345b)
Net Margin = 3.54% (Net Income TTM 1038b / Revenue TTM 29345b)
Gross Margin = 35.46% ((Revenue TTM 29345b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18938b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.10% (prev 35.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 42258b / Total Assets 48386b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.33% (Interest Expense 1024b / Debt 16195b)
Taxrate = 0.05% (2.42b / 4516b)
NOPAT = 6029b (EBIT 6032b * (1 - 0.05%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 10917b / Total Current Liabilities 11688b)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 16195b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18654b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.19 (Net Debt 12500b / EBITDA 10502b)
Debt / FCF = 26.97 (Net Debt 12500b / FCF TTM 464b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16609b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.47% (Net Income 1038b / Total Assets 48386b)
RoE = 6.25% (Net Income TTM 1038b / Total Stockholder Equity 16609b)
RoCE = 36.30% (EBIT 6032b / Capital Employed (Equity 16609b + L.T.Debt 8.52b))
RoIC = 15.83% (NOPAT 6029b / Invested Capital 38085b)
WACC = 7.06% (E(29758b)/V(45953b) * Re(7.46%) + D(16195b)/V(45953b) * Rd(6.33%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 7.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -30.01 | Cagr: -0.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈464b ; Y1≈465b ; Y5≈493b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7668b - Net Debt 12500b = -4832b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.29 | Revenue CAGR: 134.2% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.68 | Chg30d=+8.14% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+431.2% | GrowthRev=+26.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.49 | Chg30d=-4.49% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-17.8% | GrowthRev=-6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)