(YPF) YPF Sociedad Anonima - Ratings and Ratios
Crude, Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Lubricants
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 68.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.06 |
| Alpha | -37.16 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.19 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.533 |
| Beta | 1.198 |
| Beta Downside | 1.508 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.79% |
| Mean DD | 14.49% |
| Median DD | 11.73% |
Description: YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima October 31, 2025
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE: YPF) is Argentina’s largest integrated energy firm, operating across the full oil-and-gas value chain. Upstream, it explores, develops and produces crude oil and natural gas; downstream, it runs refineries, petrochemical plants, and a nationwide retail network of service stations. Its gas-and-power segment handles natural-gas transport, regasification, processing, and power generation, while ancillary businesses supply diesel, fertilizers, lubricants and other specialty products.
Key recent metrics that shape YPF’s outlook include: • 2023 crude-oil production of roughly 500 k barrels per day, a modest rise from 2022 despite currency volatility. • Net profit of $1.2 bn (≈ ARS 130 bn) in 2023, driven by higher oil prices and a temporary lift in regulated gas tariffs. • Debt-to-EBITDA around 2.8×, indicating a relatively leveraged balance sheet but still within the range of regional peers. • Capital-expenditure guidance of $1.5 bn for 2024, focused on expanding the Vaca Muerta shale-oil development and modernising refinery capacity. Macro-drivers such as Argentina’s persistent peso inflation, government price-control policies on fuel, and the country’s reliance on energy imports make YPF’s cash-flow highly sensitive to fiscal and exchange-rate swings.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of YPF’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful as a next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (-543.05b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1245.72b TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -13.05% (prev -6.67%; Δ -6.38pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 2721.57b > Net Income -543.05b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (14898.71b) to EBITDA (3901.13b) ratio: 3.82 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (388.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.85% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 26.01% (prev 28.07%; Δ -2.07pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 59.21% (prev 54.45%; Δ 4.76pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.82 (EBITDA TTM 3901.13b / Interest Expense TTM 934.23b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.12
| (A) -0.06 = (Total Current Assets 7996.80b - Total Current Liabilities 10706.18b) / Total Assets 42209.45b |
| (B) 0.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 9858.25b / Total Assets 42209.45b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 768.60b / Avg Total Assets 35066.74b |
| (D) 0.60 = Book Value of Equity 15472.57b / Total Liabilities 25602.03b |
| Total Rating: 1.12 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 50.28
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.73% |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.25% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.98 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.82 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.35)% |
| 7. RoE -3.93% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 97.17% |
| 9. EPS Trend 12.21% |
What is the price of YPF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.22%, over one month by -0.45%, over three months by +32.02% and over the past year by -16.26%.
Is YPF a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the YPF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 45.2 | 27.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 45.2 | 27.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 50.4 | 41.9% |
YPF Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
P/E Forward = 7.3421
P/S = 0.0007
P/B = 1.1739
P/EG = -0.17
Beta = 0.292
Revenue TTM = 20761.98b ARS
EBIT TTM = 768.60b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 3901.13b ARS
Long Term Debt = 7.96b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4231.08b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16039.28b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14898.71b ARS (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 35576.48b ARS (20987.53b + Debt 16039.28b - CCE 1450.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.82 (Ebit TTM 768.60b / Interest Expense TTM 934.23b)
FCF Yield = -0.73% (FCF TTM -259.10b / Enterprise Value 35576.48b)
FCF Margin = -1.25% (FCF TTM -259.10b / Revenue TTM 20761.98b)
Net Margin = -2.62% (Net Income TTM -543.05b / Revenue TTM 20761.98b)
Gross Margin = 26.01% ((Revenue TTM 20761.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15362.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.52% (prev 25.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 35576.48b / Total Assets 42209.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.73% (Interest Expense 277.02b / Debt 16039.28b)
Taxrate = 158.4% (out of range, set to none) (740.90b / 467.72b)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 7996.80b / Total Current Liabilities 10706.18b)
Debt / Equity = 0.98 (Debt 16039.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 16290.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.82 (Net Debt 14898.71b / EBITDA 3901.13b)
Debt / FCF = -57.50 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14898.71b / FCF TTM -259.10b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13822.02b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.29% (Net Income -543.05b / Total Assets 42209.45b)
RoE = -3.93% (Net Income TTM -543.05b / Total Stockholder Equity 13822.02b)
RoCE = 5.56% (EBIT 768.60b / Capital Employed (Equity 13822.02b + L.T.Debt 7.96b))
RoIC = 2.56% (EBIT 768.60b / (Assets 42209.45b - Curr.Liab 10706.18b - Cash 1450.33b))
WACC = 5.91% (E(20987.53b)/V(37026.81b) * Re(10.43%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.25%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -259.10b)
EPS Correlation: 12.21 | EPS CAGR: -6.95% | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.17 | Revenue CAGR: 108.0% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.00 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+61.2% | Growth Revenue=-1.0%
Additional Sources for YPF Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle