YUMC Stock Analysis: Yum China Holdings | NYSE

Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.342m USD | 12M Return: 8.6% | US98850P1093 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Fried Chicken, Pizza, Coffee, Delivery
Total Rating 54
Safety 85
Buy Signal -0.04
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: -9.6
Market Cap: 16.3B
Avg Turnover: 72.1M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility30.9%
VaR 5th Pctl4.78%
VaR vs Median-6.05%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.29
Rel. Str. IBD26.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group47.1
Character TTM
Beta0.407
Beta Downside0.257
Hurst Exponent0.461
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD48.98%
CAGR/Max DD-0.03
CAGR/Mean DD-0.07
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of YUMC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.42, "2021-09": 0.22, "2021-12": 0.03, "2022-03": 0.24, "2022-06": 0.2, "2022-09": 0.49, "2022-12": 0.13, "2023-03": 0.69, "2023-06": 0.47, "2023-09": 0.59, "2023-12": 0.25, "2024-03": 0.72, "2024-06": 0.55, "2024-09": 0.77, "2024-12": 0.3, "2025-03": 0.77, "2025-06": 0.58, "2025-09": 0.76, "2025-12": 0.4, "2026-03": 0.87, "2026-06": 0.7,
EPS CAGR: 13.15%
EPS Trend: 97.8%
Last SUE: 0.22
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of YUMC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 2451, 2021-09: 2554, 2021-12: 2291, 2022-03: 2668, 2022-06: 2128, 2022-09: 2685, 2022-12: 2088, 2023-03: 2917, 2023-06: 2654, 2023-09: 2914, 2023-12: 2493, 2024-03: 2958, 2024-06: 2679, 2024-09: 3071, 2024-12: 2595, 2025-03: 2981, 2025-06: 2787, 2025-09: 3206, 2025-12: 2823, 2026-03: 3271, 2026-06: 3138,
Rev. CAGR: 4.91%
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Last SUE: 1.23
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 9.8 years of data

Jan -2.1% 8
Feb +8.8% 39
Mar -2.5% 20
Apr +1.8% 2
May -4.4% 22
Jun -0.5% 8
Jul +1.1% 24
Aug +1.2% 0
Sep -5.4% 34
Oct -1.5% 46
Nov +2.4% 21
Dec -0.2% 5

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: YUMC Yum China Holdings

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is the largest restaurant company in China, operating and franchising quick-service and casual dining restaurants across the country. The company runs three reportable segments-KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other-and its portfolio spans multiple brands, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang.

Beyond dine-in operations, Yum China offers online food delivery services, reflecting the broader shift in Chinas restaurant industry toward digital and delivery-driven sales channels. As a multi-brand operator, it generates revenue through a mix of company-owned stores, franchise fees, and royalties. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Shanghai, Yum China is classified within the GICS Restaurants sub-industry under Consumer Discretionary.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • KFC same-store sales growth drives consolidated revenue
  • Chinese consumer spending recovery boosts average ticket size
  • Local brand competition and delivery fees pressure restaurant margins
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.5
Net Income: 975.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.69% < 20% (prev 7.30%; Δ -7.99% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 1.59b > Net Income 975.0m
Net Debt (2.77b) to EBITDA (1.93b): 1.44 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (348.0m) vs 12m ago -6.70% < -2%
Gross Margin: 17.23% > 18% (prev 17.09%; Δ 0.14% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 113.8% > 50% (prev 104.1%; Δ 9.72% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 54.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 27.0m)
Altman Z'' 2.53
A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 2.35b - Total Current Liabilities 2.44b) / Total Assets 10.9b
B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 1.70b / Total Assets 10.9b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Avg Total Assets 10.9b)
D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 5.36b / Total Liabilities 4.81b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.53 = A
Beneish M -3.49
DSRI: 0.30 (Receivables 115.0m/353.0m, Revenue 12.4b/11.4b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 17.09% / 17.23%)
AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.31)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 12.4b / 11.4b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 975.0m - CFO 1.59b) / TA 10.9b)
Beneish M = -3.49 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of YUMC shares?

As of August 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 47.59 with a total of 602,122 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.27%, over one month by +9.91%, over three months by +4.18% and over the past year by +8.61%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 46.30 (which is 2.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is YUMC a buy, sell or hold?

Yum China Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.61. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YUMC.

  • StrongBuy: 15
  • Buy: 7
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the YUMC price?
Analysts Target Price 62.1 30.4%
Yum China Holdings (YUMC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 10 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 16.3b (16.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 17.4799
P/E Forward = 16.129
P/S = 1.3125
P/B = 3.0474
P/EG = 1.1946
Revenue TTM = 12.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.47b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.93b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.80b USD (estimated: total debt 1.86b - short term 66.0m)
Short Term Debt = 66.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.29b
Net Debt = 2.77b USD (calculated: Debt 4.16b - CCE 1.39b)
Enterprise Value = 19.1b USD (16.3b + Debt 4.16b - CCE 1.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 54.26 (Ebit TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 27.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.21x (Enterprise Value 19.1b / FCF TTM 945.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.95% (FCF TTM 945.9m / Enterprise Value 19.1b)
FCF Margin = 7.60% (FCF TTM 945.9m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Net Margin = 7.84% (Net Income TTM 975.0m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Gross Margin = 17.23% ((Revenue TTM 12.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.11% (prev 18.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.76 (Enterprise Value 19.1b / Total Assets 10.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.65% (Interest Expense 27.0m / Debt 4.16b)
Taxrate = 26.77% (385.0m / 1.44b)
NOPAT = 1.07b (EBIT 1.47b * (1 - 26.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 2.35b / Total Current Liabilities 2.44b)
Debt / Equity = 0.78 (Debt 4.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.44 (Net Debt 2.77b / EBITDA 1.93b)
Debt / FCF = 2.93 (Net Debt 2.77b / FCF TTM 945.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.92% (Net Income 975.0m / Total Assets 10.9b)
RoE = 17.84% (Net Income TTM 975.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.47b)
RoCE = 20.17% (EBIT 1.47b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.47b + L.T.Debt 1.80b))
RoIC = 13.62% (NOPAT 1.07b / Invested Capital 7.88b)
WACC = 6.00% (E(16.3b)/V(20.5b) * Re(7.41%) + D(4.16b)/V(20.5b) * Rd(0.65%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 7.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.20 | Cagr: -6.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.72% ; FCFF base≈901.1m ; Y1≈1.02b ; Y5≈1.45b
[DCF] Fair Price = 55.76 (EV 21.9b - Net Debt 2.77b = Equity 19.1b / Shares 342.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 13.41% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.79 | EPS CAGR: 13.15% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.42 | Revenue CAGR: 4.91% | SUE: 1.23 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+0.61% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.95 | Chg30d=+1.37% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+17.3% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.36 | Chg30d=+2.92% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+14.1% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +8% (up=5, down=4)