YUMC Stock Analysis: Yum China Holdings | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.999m USD | 12M Return: 12.3% | US98850P1093 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.3M
EPS Trend: 97.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.1 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is a leading multi-brand restaurant operator in the Peoples Republic of China, spun off from Yum! Brands in 2016. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under several well-known concepts, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang, and reports through KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. In addition to its dine-in operations, Yum China offers online food delivery services, reflecting the broader shift toward digital ordering in the Chinese restaurant market. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Shanghai, YUMC is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Restaurants) and trades as a large-cap stock.
- KFC same-store sales rebound accelerates revenue growth
- Pizza Hut traffic weakness pressures segment margins
- Lower-tier city store expansion lifts unit growth
| Net Income: 1.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.31% < 20% (prev 6.32%; Δ -16.63% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.61b > Net Income 1.00b |
| Net Debt (4.24b) to EBITDA (2.00b): 2.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (343.0m) vs 12m ago -6.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.05% > 18% (prev 17.17%; Δ -0.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.4% > 50% (prev 104.8%; Δ 3.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 36.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 2.61b - Total Current Liabilities 3.92b) / Total Assets 12.4b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 1.71b / Total Assets 12.4b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.52b / Avg Total Assets 11.7b) |
| D: 0.85 (Book Value of Equity 5.36b / Total Liabilities 6.31b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.52 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.30 (Receivables 117.0m/355.0m, Revenue 12.7b/11.6b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 17.17% / 17.05%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.41 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 12.7b / 11.6b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.00b - CFO 1.61b) / TA 12.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.35 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 50.86 with a total of 1,686,453 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.82%, over one month by +17.98%, over three months by +8.33% and over the past year by +12.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.40 (which is 2.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Yum China Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.65. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YUMC.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 62 | 21.9% |
P/E Trailing = 17.5486
P/E Forward = 14.43
P/S = 1.3376
P/B = 3.0875
P/EG = 1.1256
Revenue TTM = 12.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.52b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.76b USD (estimated: total debt 3.73b - short term 1.97b)
Short Term Debt = 1.97b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.18b
Net Debt = 4.24b USD (calculated: Debt 5.91b - CCE 1.67b)
Enterprise Value = 21.2b USD (17.0b + Debt 5.91b - CCE 1.67b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 36.29 (Ebit TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 42.0m)
EV/FCF = 22.27x (Enterprise Value 21.2b / FCF TTM 953.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.49% (FCF TTM 953.9m / Enterprise Value 21.2b)
FCF Margin = 7.51% (FCF TTM 953.9m / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Net Margin = 7.90% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Gross Margin = 17.05% ((Revenue TTM 12.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.43% (prev 17.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.71 (Enterprise Value 21.2b / Total Assets 12.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.71% (Interest Expense 42.0m / Debt 5.91b)
Taxrate = 27.06% (401.0m / 1.48b)
NOPAT = 1.11b (EBIT 1.52b * (1 - 27.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 2.61b / Total Current Liabilities 3.92b)
Debt / Equity = 1.10 (Debt 5.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.13 (Net Debt 4.24b / EBITDA 2.00b)
Debt / FCF = 4.45 (Net Debt 4.24b / FCF TTM 953.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.38b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.57% (Net Income 1.00b / Total Assets 12.4b)
RoE = 18.65% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.38b)
RoCE = 21.35% (EBIT 1.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.38b + L.T.Debt 1.76b))
RoIC = 11.31% (NOPAT 1.11b / Invested Capital 9.83b)
WACC = 5.22% (E(17.0b)/V(22.9b) * Re(6.86%) + D(5.91b)/V(22.9b) * Rd(0.71%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 6.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.50 | Cagr: -5.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.62% ; FCFF base≈948.7m ; Y1≈963.5m ; Y5≈1.04b
[DCF] Fair Price = 35.54 (EV 16.2b - Net Debt 4.24b = Equity 12.0b / Shares 336.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.37% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.92 | EPS CAGR: 12.98% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.51 | Revenue CAGR: 5.27% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-3.68% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.95 | Chg30d=+0.17% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+17.6% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.38 | Chg30d=-0.15% | Revisions=-46% | GrowthEPS=+14.3% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -61% (up=2, down=13)