YUMC Stock Analysis: Yum China Holdings | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 13.806m USD | 12M Return: -4.4% | US98850P1093 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 53.8M
EPS Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is a leading multi-brand restaurant operator in the Peoples Republic of China, spun off from Yum! Brands in 2016. The company owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under several well-known concepts, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang, and reports through KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. In addition to its dine-in operations, Yum China offers online food delivery services, reflecting the broader shift toward digital ordering in the Chinese restaurant market. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Shanghai, YUMC is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Restaurants) and trades as a large-cap stock.
- KFC same-store sales rebound accelerates revenue growth
- Pizza Hut traffic weakness pressures segment margins
- Lower-tier city store expansion lifts unit growth
| Net Income: 975.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.69% < 20% (prev 7.30%; Δ -7.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 1.59b > Net Income 975.0m |
| Net Debt (910.0m) to EBITDA (1.93b): 0.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (348.0m) vs 12m ago -6.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.23% > 18% (prev 17.09%; Δ 0.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 113.8% > 50% (prev 104.1%; Δ 9.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 54.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 27.0m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 2.35b - Total Current Liabilities 2.44b) / Total Assets 10.9b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 1.70b / Total Assets 10.9b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Avg Total Assets 10.9b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 5.36b / Total Liabilities 4.81b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.53 = A |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 354.0m/353.0m, Revenue 12.4b/11.4b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 17.09% / 17.23%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 12.4b / 11.4b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 975.0m - CFO 1.59b) / TA 10.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 39.98 with a total of 1,479,488 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.21%, over one month by -10.66%, over three months by -3.53% and over the past year by -4.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.00 (which is 2.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Yum China Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.61. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YUMC.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 61.9 | 54.9% |
P/E Trailing = 15.0554
P/E Forward = 12.3001
P/S = 1.11
P/B = 2.5835
P/EG = 0.9118
Revenue TTM = 12.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.47b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.93b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.80b USD (estimated: total debt 2.30b - short term 499.0m)
Short Term Debt = 499.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 2.23b already included)
Net Debt = 910.0m USD (calculated: Debt 2.30b - CCE 1.39b)
Enterprise Value = 14.7b USD (13.8b + Debt 2.30b - CCE 1.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 54.26 (Ebit TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 27.0m)
EV/FCF = 15.56x (Enterprise Value 14.7b / FCF TTM 945.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.43% (FCF TTM 945.9m / Enterprise Value 14.7b)
FCF Margin = 7.60% (FCF TTM 945.9m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Net Margin = 7.84% (Net Income TTM 975.0m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Gross Margin = 17.23% ((Revenue TTM 12.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.11% (prev 18.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.35 (Enterprise Value 14.7b / Total Assets 10.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 27.0m / Debt 2.30b)
Taxrate = 26.77% (385.0m / 1.44b)
NOPAT = 1.07b (EBIT 1.47b * (1 - 26.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 2.35b / Total Current Liabilities 2.44b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 2.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.47 (Net Debt 910.0m / EBITDA 1.93b)
Debt / FCF = 0.96 (Net Debt 910.0m / FCF TTM 945.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.92% (Net Income 975.0m / Total Assets 10.9b)
RoE = 17.84% (Net Income TTM 975.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.47b)
RoCE = 20.17% (EBIT 1.47b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.47b + L.T.Debt 1.80b))
RoIC = 12.91% (NOPAT 1.07b / Invested Capital 8.31b)
WACC = 6.67% (E(13.8b)/V(16.1b) * Re(7.64%) + D(2.30b)/V(16.1b) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 7.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.20 | Cagr: -6.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.72% ; FCFF base≈901.1m ; Y1≈1.02b ; Y5≈1.45b
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.94 (EV 21.9b - Net Debt 910.0m = Equity 21.0b / Shares 338.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 13.41% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.79 | EPS CAGR: 13.15% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.42 | Revenue CAGR: 4.91% | SUE: 1.23 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.95 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=+31% | GrowthEPS=+17.6% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.38 | Chg30d=+0.51% | Revisions=+59% | GrowthEPS=+14.4% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=23, down=8)