YUMC Stock Analysis: Yum China Holdings | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.101m USD | 12M Return: -6.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 73.0M
EPS Trend: 97.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: YUMC) is the largest restaurant company in China, operating and franchising quick-service and casual dining restaurants across the country. The company runs three reportable segments-KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other-and its portfolio spans multiple brands, including KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang.
Beyond dine-in operations, Yum China offers online food delivery services, reflecting the broader shift in Chinas restaurant industry toward digital and delivery-driven sales channels. As a multi-brand operator, it generates revenue through a mix of company-owned stores, franchise fees, and royalties. Founded in 1987 and headquartered in Shanghai, Yum China is classified within the GICS Restaurants sub-industry under Consumer Discretionary.
- KFC same-store sales growth drives consolidated revenue
- Chinese consumer spending recovery boosts average ticket size
- Local brand competition and delivery fees pressure restaurant margins
| Net Income: 946.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.54 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.12% < 20% (prev 4.94%; Δ -4.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 1.56b > Net Income 946.0m |
| Net Debt (886.0m) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (354.0m) vs 12m ago -6.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.23% > 18% (prev 16.94%; Δ 0.28% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 110.7% > 50% (prev 102.9%; Δ 7.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 2.32b - Total Current Liabilities 2.30b) / Total Assets 10.8b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 1.79b / Total Assets 10.8b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.38b / Avg Total Assets 10.9b) |
| D: 1.15 (Book Value of Equity 5.43b / Total Liabilities 4.73b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.60 = A |
| DSRI: 0.32 (Receivables 103.0m/297.0m, Revenue 12.1b/11.3b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 16.94% / 17.23%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 12.1b / 11.3b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 946.0m - CFO 1.56b) / TA 10.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.54 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.70 with a total of 1,861,500 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.78%, over one month by -2.89%, over three months by -13.20% and over the past year by -6.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.60 (which is 2.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Yum China Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.61. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YUMC.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 61.3 | 47.1% |
P/E Trailing = 15.6437
P/E Forward = 13.8889
P/S = 1.1672
P/B = 2.5968
P/EG = 1.0228
Revenue TTM = 12.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.38b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.85b USD (estimated: total debt 2.31b - short term 463.0m)
Short Term Debt = 463.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.31b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 2.29b already included)
Net Debt = 886.0m USD (calculated: Debt 2.31b - CCE 1.43b)
Enterprise Value = 15.0b USD (14.1b + Debt 2.31b - CCE 1.43b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.38b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 16.10x (Enterprise Value 15.0b / FCF TTM 931.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.21% (FCF TTM 931.0m / Enterprise Value 15.0b)
FCF Margin = 7.70% (FCF TTM 931.0m / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Net Margin = 7.83% (Net Income TTM 946.0m / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Gross Margin = 17.23% ((Revenue TTM 12.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.80% (prev 14.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 15.0b / Total Assets 10.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 2.31b)
Taxrate = 26.74% (373.0m / 1.40b)
NOPAT = 1.01b (EBIT 1.38b * (1 - 26.74%))
Current Ratio = 1.01 (Total Current Assets 2.32b / Total Current Liabilities 2.30b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 2.31b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.48 (Net Debt 886.0m / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 0.95 (Net Debt 886.0m / FCF TTM 931.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.57b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.66% (Net Income 946.0m / Total Assets 10.8b)
RoE = 16.97% (Net Income TTM 946.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.57b)
RoCE = 18.61% (EBIT 1.38b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.57b + L.T.Debt 1.85b))
RoIC = 12.07% (NOPAT 1.01b / Invested Capital 8.39b)
WACC = 5.77% (E(14.1b)/V(16.4b) * Re(6.72%) + D(2.31b)/V(16.4b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 6.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈869.0m ; Y1≈996.2m ; Y5≈1.47b
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.31 (EV 22.1b - Net Debt 886.0m = Equity 21.2b / Shares 345.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.40 | EPS CAGR: 14.04% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.98 | Revenue CAGR: 4.78% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-0.74% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+0.56% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=-0.51% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+15.8% | GrowthRev=+7.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.27 | Chg30d=+0.15% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+12.3% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)