ZGN Stock Analysis: Ermenegildo Zegna | NYSE
Apparel Manufacturing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.410m USD | 12M Return: 45.4% | NL0015000PB5 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.9M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 95.5%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (NYSE: ZGN) is an Italy-based luxury fashion company founded in 1910 and headquartered in Milan. It designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear, womenswear, childrenswear, footwear, leather goods, eyewear, fragrances, fine jewelry, and home design products under the ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD FASHION brands. Products are sold globally through both retail stores and online channels, and the company operates as a subsidiary of Monterubello Societa Semplice.
The company is listed in the Consumer Discretionary sector within the Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sub-industry, and trades as a mid-cap stock following its December 2021 IPO. Its portfolio spans formalwear, leisurewear, and accessories, giving it exposure across multiple segments of the global personal luxury goods market.
- China luxury demand recovery drives Asia segment revenue
- Thom Browne brand revenue accelerates with global store expansion
- Direct retail mix shift expands gross margins and reduces wholesale exposure
| Net Income: 78.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 19.28% < 20% (prev 17.53%; Δ 1.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 394.8m > Net Income 78.6m |
| Net Debt (1.78b) to EBITDA (415.6m): 4.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (270.2m) vs 12m ago 6.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.02% > 18% (prev 67.14%; Δ -11.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.19% > 50% (prev 70.19%; Δ -2.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 169.0m / Interest Expense TTM 54.3m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 816.1m) / Total Assets 3.09b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 730.7m / Total Assets 3.09b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 169.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.91b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 1.98b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.53 = A |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 227.1m/243.5m, Revenue 1.98b/1.91b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 67.14% / 56.02%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.98b / 1.91b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 78.6m - CFO 394.8m) / TA 3.09b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.60 with a total of 789,283 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.48%, over one month by +8.34%, over three months by -4.26% and over the past year by +45.35%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.50 (which is 8.7% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Ermenegildo Zegna has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.15. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZGN.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.4 | 14.4% |
Market Cap EUR = 3.05b (3.41b USD * 0.89520001411438 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 36.2286
P/E Forward = 22.6244
P/S = 1.725
P/B = 2.8119
Revenue TTM = 1.98b EUR
EBIT TTM = 169.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 415.6m EUR
Long Term Debt = 128.1m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 243.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.08b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 927.2m
Net Debt = 1.78b EUR (calculated: Debt 2.08b - CCE 294.4m)
Enterprise Value = 4.84b EUR (3.05b + Debt 2.08b - CCE 294.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 169.0m / Interest Expense TTM 54.3m)
EV/FCF = 16.04x (Enterprise Value 4.84b / FCF TTM 301.5m)
FCF Yield = 6.23% (FCF TTM 301.5m / Enterprise Value 4.84b)
FCF Margin = 15.21% (FCF TTM 301.5m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Net Margin = 3.96% (Net Income TTM 78.6m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Gross Margin = 56.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 872.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.02% (prev 56.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.57 (Enterprise Value 4.84b / Total Assets 3.09b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.61% (Interest Expense 54.3m / Debt 2.08b)
Taxrate = 24.16% (28.7m / 118.6m)
NOPAT = 128.2m (EBIT 169.0m * (1 - 24.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 816.1m)
Debt / Equity = 2.00 (Debt 2.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.29 (Net Debt 1.78b / EBITDA 415.6m)
Debt / FCF = 5.92 (Net Debt 1.78b / FCF TTM 301.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 967.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.70% (Net Income 78.6m / Total Assets 3.09b)
RoE = 8.12% (Net Income TTM 78.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 967.3m)
RoCE = 15.43% (EBIT 169.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 967.3m + L.T.Debt 128.1m))
RoIC = 5.31% (NOPAT 128.2m / Invested Capital 2.42b)
WACC = 6.98% (E(3.05b)/V(5.13b) * Re(10.39%) + D(2.08b)/V(5.13b) * Rd(2.61%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.01 | Cagr: 4.96%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈249.0m ; Y1≈285.4m ; Y5≈420.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.87 (EV 6.32b - Net Debt 1.78b = Equity 4.54b / Shares 268.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -3.98 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 95.52 | Revenue CAGR: 31.55% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-1.99% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=-12.4% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=-1.10% | Revisions=-55% | GrowthEPS=+35.0% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -72% (up=1, down=14)