ZGN Stock Analysis: Ermenegildo Zegna | NYSE
Apparel Manufacturing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.534m USD | 12M Return: 53.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 20.2M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 96.2%
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (NYSE: ZGN) is an Italian-founded luxury apparel group that designs, manufactures, and distributes menswear, womenswear, childrenswear, footwear, leather goods, and accessories globally. Its portfolio spans casual and formalwear categories and extends into eyewear, jewelry, fragrances, textiles, and home products, sold under the ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD FASHION brands through both physical retail stores and online channels. Founded in 1910 and headquartered in Milan, the company operates as a controlled subsidiary of the Monterubello holding structure.
The business follows a multi-brand luxury model common to the apparel and accessories sector, leveraging brand segmentation to address different price points and customer segments. As a Consumer Discretionary issuer in the Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sub-industry, ZGNs performance is tied to global luxury demand, particularly in menswear, which remains a core category for the group.
- China luxury demand recovery drives ZEGNA segment revenue
- Thom Browne outpaces core brand as direct-to-retail expansion accelerates margins
- Strong US dollar pressures reported earnings from European manufacturing base
| Net Income: 98.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.02% < 20% (prev 18.15%; Δ 4.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 333.4m > Net Income 98.2m |
| Net Debt (1.41b) to EBITDA (325.9m): 4.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (266.3m) vs 12m ago 3.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 61.59% > 18% (prev 66.60%; Δ -5.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.39% > 50% (prev 68.69%; Δ -1.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 162.3m / Interest Expense TTM 40.8m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 1.19b - Total Current Liabilities 750.1m) / Total Assets 2.83b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 739.3m / Total Assets 2.83b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 162.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.83b) |
| D: 0.59 (Book Value of Equity 1.03b / Total Liabilities 1.73b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.88 = A |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 260.4m/281.6m, Revenue 1.91b/1.95b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 66.60% / 61.59%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 1.91b / 1.95b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 98.2m - CFO 333.4m) / TA 2.83b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.57 with a total of 659,266 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.56%, over one month by -7.22%, over three months by +18.72% and over the past year by +53.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.80 (which is 5.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Ermenegildo Zegna has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.43. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ZGN.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 13.5 | -0.4% |
Market Cap EUR = 3.09b (3.53b USD * 0.8737 USD.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 30.6279
P/E Forward = 31.348
P/S = 1.8434
P/B = 3.0096
Revenue TTM = 1.91b EUR
EBIT TTM = 162.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 325.9m EUR
Long Term Debt = 162.1m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 225.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.71b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 731.6m
Net Debt = 1.41b EUR (calculated: Debt 1.71b - CCE 295.7m)
Enterprise Value = 4.50b EUR (3.09b + Debt 1.71b - CCE 295.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.97 (Ebit TTM 162.3m / Interest Expense TTM 40.8m)
EV/FCF = 17.67x (Enterprise Value 4.50b / FCF TTM 254.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.66% (FCF TTM 254.8m / Enterprise Value 4.50b)
FCF Margin = 13.34% (FCF TTM 254.8m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Net Margin = 5.14% (Net Income TTM 98.2m / Revenue TTM 1.91b)
Gross Margin = 61.59% ((Revenue TTM 1.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 733.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.01% (prev 67.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.59 (Enterprise Value 4.50b / Total Assets 2.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.39% (Interest Expense 40.8m / Debt 1.71b)
Taxrate = 21.85% (30.5m / 139.5m)
NOPAT = 126.8m (EBIT 162.3m * (1 - 21.85%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 1.19b / Total Current Liabilities 750.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.66 (Debt 1.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.34 (Net Debt 1.41b / EBITDA 325.9m)
Debt / FCF = 5.55 (Net Debt 1.41b / FCF TTM 254.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 921.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.46% (Net Income 98.2m / Total Assets 2.83b)
RoE = 10.66% (Net Income TTM 98.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 921.2m)
RoCE = 14.98% (EBIT 162.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 921.2m + L.T.Debt 162.1m))
RoIC = 5.73% (NOPAT 126.8m / Invested Capital 2.21b)
WACC = 7.44% (E(3.09b)/V(4.80b) * Re(10.52%) + D(1.71b)/V(4.80b) * Rd(2.39%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.42 | Cagr: 12.69%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈224.5m ; Y1≈257.3m ; Y5≈378.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 15.97 (EV 5.70b - Net Debt 1.41b = Equity 4.29b / Shares 268.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -3.98 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 96.19 | Revenue CAGR: 32.36% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-8.3% | GrowthRev=+4.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=+0.45% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+29.2% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +47% (up=11, down=3)