(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Overview
Sector: IndustrialsIndustry: Integrated Freight & Logistics | Exchange NYSE (USA) | Currency USD | Market Cap: 19.251m | Total Return 23.3% in 12m
Stock: Delivery Services, Freight Forwarding, Logistics
Total Rating 63
Risk 82
Buy Signal -0.28
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.48% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.69 |
| Alpha | 19.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.191 |
| Beta Downside | -0.082 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) March 05, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO) operates as an express delivery and logistics provider in China. The companys primary services include freight forwarding and parcel delivery for e-commerce and traditional merchants. The Chinese express delivery market is characterized by high volume and intense competition.
Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, ZTO Express is a significant player in the logistics sector, which is crucial for e-commerce growth. Further research on ValueRay can provide more detailed insights into ZTOs performance and market position.
Headlines to watch out for
- E-commerce growth fuels parcel volume expansion
- Fuel price volatility impacts transportation costs
- Regulatory changes in Chinas logistics sector
- Competition erodes express delivery service margins
- Labor costs increase pressure on profitability
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 9.03b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.72 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.73% < 20% (prev 4.70%; Δ 18.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 15.08b > Net Income 9.03b |
| Net Debt (1.03b) to EBITDA (11.82b): 0.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (793.3m) vs 12m ago -5.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.99% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 2.47k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.25% > 50% (prev 47.95%; Δ 5.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 39.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 11.82b / Interest Expense TTM 193.9m) |
Altman Z'' 4.78
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 33.99b - Total Current Liabilities 22.88b) / Total Assets 91.08b |
| B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 42.95b / Total Assets 91.08b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 7.74b / Avg Total Assets 91.71b) |
| D: 1.78 (Book Value of Equity 42.67b / Total Liabilities 23.90b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.78 = AA |
Beneish M -2.67
| DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 2.44b/1.67b, Revenue 48.84b/44.28b) |
| GMI: 1.24 (GM 24.99% / 30.98%) |
| AQI: 0.78 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 48.84b / 44.28b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 9.03b - CFO 15.08b) / TA 91.08b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ZTO shares?
As of March 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.06 with a total of 1,187,879 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.64%, over one month by -1.31%, over three months by +13.76% and over the past year by +23.32%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.64%, over one month by -1.31%, over three months by +13.76% and over the past year by +23.32%.
Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 27.9 | 16% |
| Analysts Target Price | 27.9 | 16% |
ZTO Fundamental Data Overview March 26, 2026
P/E Trailing = 15.5988
P/E Forward = 13.6054
P/S = 0.3921
P/B = 1.9755
P/EG = 1.2486
Revenue TTM = 48.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 7.74b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.82b USD
Long Term Debt = 289.3m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 11.08b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.03b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.65b USD (19.25b + Debt 11.08b - CCE 25.68b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 39.92 (Ebit TTM 7.74b / Interest Expense TTM 193.9m)
EV/FCF = 0.61x (Enterprise Value 4.65b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
FCF Yield = 163.8% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 4.65b)
FCF Margin = 15.61% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 48.84b)
Net Margin = 18.49% (Net Income TTM 9.03b / Revenue TTM 48.84b)
Gross Margin = 24.99% ((Revenue TTM 48.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 36.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.37% (prev 24.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 4.65b / Total Assets 91.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.24% (Interest Expense 26.8m / Debt 11.08b)
Taxrate = 19.16% (629.3m / 3.29b)
NOPAT = 6.26b (EBIT 7.74b * (1 - 19.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.49 (Total Current Assets 33.99b / Total Current Liabilities 22.88b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 11.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 66.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (Net Debt 1.03b / EBITDA 11.82b)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 1.03b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.85% (Net Income 9.03b / Total Assets 91.08b)
RoE = 14.03% (Net Income TTM 9.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.39b)
RoCE = 11.97% (EBIT 7.74b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.39b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 7.89% (NOPAT 6.26b / Invested Capital 79.32b)
WACC = 4.30% (E(19.25b)/V(30.33b) * Re(6.66%) + D(11.08b)/V(30.33b) * Rd(0.24%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 88.44% ; FCFF base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.46b
[DCF] Fair Price = 650.6 (EV 361.60b - Net Debt 1.03b = Equity 360.57b / Shares 554.2m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 41.24 | EPS CAGR: 27.27% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.37 | Revenue CAGR: 17.15% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.23 | Chg7d=+0.381 | Chg30d=+0.381 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.16 | Chg7d=+0.566 | Chg30d=+0.618 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.70 | Chg7d=+0.895 | Chg30d=+0.948 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+11.7% | Growth Revenue=+9.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 1.5% (Discount Rate 7.9% - Earnings Yield 6.4%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +18.4% (Analyst 20.0% - Implied 1.5%)
P/E Forward = 13.6054
P/S = 0.3921
P/B = 1.9755
P/EG = 1.2486
Revenue TTM = 48.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 7.74b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.82b USD
Long Term Debt = 289.3m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 11.08b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.03b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.65b USD (19.25b + Debt 11.08b - CCE 25.68b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 39.92 (Ebit TTM 7.74b / Interest Expense TTM 193.9m)
EV/FCF = 0.61x (Enterprise Value 4.65b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
FCF Yield = 163.8% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 4.65b)
FCF Margin = 15.61% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 48.84b)
Net Margin = 18.49% (Net Income TTM 9.03b / Revenue TTM 48.84b)
Gross Margin = 24.99% ((Revenue TTM 48.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 36.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.37% (prev 24.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 4.65b / Total Assets 91.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.24% (Interest Expense 26.8m / Debt 11.08b)
Taxrate = 19.16% (629.3m / 3.29b)
NOPAT = 6.26b (EBIT 7.74b * (1 - 19.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.49 (Total Current Assets 33.99b / Total Current Liabilities 22.88b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 11.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 66.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (Net Debt 1.03b / EBITDA 11.82b)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 1.03b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.85% (Net Income 9.03b / Total Assets 91.08b)
RoE = 14.03% (Net Income TTM 9.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.39b)
RoCE = 11.97% (EBIT 7.74b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.39b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 7.89% (NOPAT 6.26b / Invested Capital 79.32b)
WACC = 4.30% (E(19.25b)/V(30.33b) * Re(6.66%) + D(11.08b)/V(30.33b) * Rd(0.24%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 88.44% ; FCFF base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.46b
[DCF] Fair Price = 650.6 (EV 361.60b - Net Debt 1.03b = Equity 360.57b / Shares 554.2m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 41.24 | EPS CAGR: 27.27% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.37 | Revenue CAGR: 17.15% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.23 | Chg7d=+0.381 | Chg30d=+0.381 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.16 | Chg7d=+0.566 | Chg30d=+0.618 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.70 | Chg7d=+0.895 | Chg30d=+0.948 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+11.7% | Growth Revenue=+9.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 1.5% (Discount Rate 7.9% - Earnings Yield 6.4%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +18.4% (Analyst 20.0% - Implied 1.5%)