(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Overview

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 18.208m USD | Total Return: 34.9% in 12m

Express Delivery, Freight Forwarding, Warehousing, Logistics
Total Rating 59
Safety 87
Buy Signal 0.12
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Industry Rotation: -2.0
Market Cap: 18.2B
Avg Turnover: 38.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility27.9%
VaR 5th Pctl4.58%
VaR vs Median-0.16%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.06
Rel. Str. IBD65.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group59.1
Character TTM
Beta0.158
Beta Downside0.002
Hurst Exponent0.553
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD44.63%
CAGR/Max DD-0.07
CAGR/Mean DD-0.14
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ZTO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.64, "2021-06": 0.94, "2021-09": 1.43, "2021-12": 2.18, "2022-03": 1.34, "2022-06": 2.23, "2022-09": 2.37, "2022-12": 2.61, "2023-03": 0.32, "2023-06": 3.07, "2023-09": 2.84, "2023-12": 2.66, "2024-03": 1.75, "2024-06": 4.31, "2024-09": 2.91, "2024-12": 3.24, "2025-03": 2.71, "2025-06": 2.37, "2025-09": 3.06, "2025-12": 3.31, "2026-03": null,
EPS CAGR: 27.27%
EPS Trend: 41.2%
Last SUE: 0.17
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ZTO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 6472.537, 2021-06: 7325.06, 2021-09: 7390.723, 2021-12: 9217.519, 2022-03: 7904.05, 2022-06: 8656.677, 2022-09: 8944.942, 2022-12: 9871.327, 2023-03: 8983.239, 2023-06: 9740.324, 2023-09: 9075.918, 2023-12: 10619.434, 2024-03: 9960.006, 2024-06: 10725.964, 2024-09: 10675.048, 2024-12: 12919.702, 2025-03: 10891.465, 2025-06: 11831.807, 2025-09: 11802.676694, 2025-12: 14310.423266, 2026-03: 14310.423266,
Rev. CAGR: 14.34%
Rev. Trend: 91.3%
Last SUE: 0.35
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a Shanghai-based logistics provider specializing in express delivery and value-added services across mainland China. The company’s service portfolio includes less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping, freight forwarding, and integrated warehousing and distribution solutions.

Operating within the high-volume Chinese e-commerce ecosystem, ZTO utilizes a partner-network model where the company manages the critical line-haul transportation and sorting hubs while delegating first- and last-mile pickup and delivery to third-party network partners. This asset-light approach allows for rapid scalability in a sector characterized by intense price competition and high capital expenditure requirements for automated sorting technology.

Investors seeking detailed valuation metrics and peer comparisons should consult ValueRay for further analysis. The company remains a central player in the Air Freight & Logistics industry, benefiting from the long-term structural growth of domestic consumption in China.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Chinese e-commerce volume growth directly correlates with parcel delivery revenue
  • Market share expansion via price competition impacts quarterly operating margins
  • Line-haul transportation costs fluctuate based on diesel prices and automation efficiency
  • Regulatory oversight of labor practices affects long-term personnel cost structures
  • Expansion of integrated logistics and LTL services diversifies traditional revenue streams
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 7.5
Net Income: 9.63b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.17 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 21.25% < 20% (prev 3.35%; Δ 17.90% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.27 > 3% & CFO 24.24b > Net Income 9.63b
Net Debt (-14.20b) to EBITDA (12.18b): -1.17 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.49 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (793.3m) vs 12m ago -4.66% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.16% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 2.49k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 56.73% > 50% (prev 48.54%; Δ 8.19% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 35.14 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 12.18b / Interest Expense TTM 151.8m)
Altman Z'' 4.60
A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 33.99b - Total Current Liabilities 22.88b) / Total Assets 91.08b
B: 0.47 (Retained Earnings 42.95b / Total Assets 91.08b)
C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 5.33b / Avg Total Assets 92.12b)
D: 1.78 (Book Value of Equity 42.67b / Total Liabilities 23.90b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 4.60 = AA
Beneish M -3.03
DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 2.44b/2.09b, Revenue 52.26b/45.21b)
GMI: 1.18 (GM 25.16% / 29.65%)
AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.30)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 52.26b / 45.21b)
TATA: -0.16 (NI 9.63b - CFO 24.24b) / TA 91.08b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of ZTO shares? As of May 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.74 with a total of 2,116,413 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.23%, over one month by -5.34%, over three months by -4.17% and over the past year by +34.88%.
Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold? ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
  • StrongBuy: 14
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?
Analysts Target Price 28.9 21.8%
ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 14.3879
P/E Forward = 13.8122
P/S = 0.3709
P/B = 1.9714
P/EG = 1.2669
Revenue TTM = 52.26b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 12.18b USD
Long Term Debt = 142.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 11.07b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -14.20b USD (recalculated: Debt 11.48b - CCE 25.68b)
Enterprise Value = 4.01b USD (18.21b + Debt 11.48b - CCE 25.68b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 35.14 (Ebit TTM 5.33b / Interest Expense TTM 151.8m)
EV/FCF = 1.35x (Enterprise Value 4.01b / FCF TTM 2.97b)
FCF Yield = 74.06% (FCF TTM 2.97b / Enterprise Value 4.01b)
FCF Margin = 5.68% (FCF TTM 2.97b / Revenue TTM 52.26b)
Net Margin = 18.42% (Net Income TTM 9.63b / Revenue TTM 52.26b)
Gross Margin = 25.16% ((Revenue TTM 52.26b - Cost of Revenue TTM 39.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.37% (prev 25.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.04 (Enterprise Value 4.01b / Total Assets 91.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.23% (Interest Expense 26.8m / Debt 11.48b)
Taxrate = 19.16% (629.3m / 3.29b)
NOPAT = 4.31b (EBIT 5.33b * (1 - 19.16%))
Current Ratio = 1.49 (Total Current Assets 33.99b / Total Current Liabilities 22.88b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 11.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 66.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.17 (Net Debt -14.20b / EBITDA 12.18b)
Debt / FCF = -4.78 (Net Debt -14.20b / FCF TTM 2.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 65.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.45% (Net Income 9.63b / Total Assets 91.08b)
RoE = 14.71% (Net Income TTM 9.63b / Total Stockholder Equity 65.44b)
RoCE = 8.13% (EBIT 5.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 65.44b + L.T.Debt 142.1m))
RoIC = 5.47% (NOPAT 4.31b / Invested Capital 78.89b)
WACC = 4.08% (E(18.21b)/V(29.69b) * Re(6.54%) + D(11.48b)/V(29.69b) * Rd(0.23%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -64.41 | Cagr: -0.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 88.44% ; FCFF base≈5.29b ; Y1≈6.53b ; Y5≈11.14b
[DCF] Fair Price = 601.7 (EV 323.26b - Net Debt -14.20b = Equity 337.46b / Shares 560.9m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 41.24 | EPS CAGR: 27.27% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.34 | Revenue CAGR: 14.34% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.23 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.24 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+14.9% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.80 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+71% | GrowthEPS=+11.8% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +71%