(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: China •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US98980A1051
Stock: Express Delivery, Logistics Services, Freight Forwarding, E-Commerce
Total Rating 58
Risk 88
Buy Signal -0.11
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.54% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.99% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 26.98% |
| Payout Consistency | 93.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 |
| Alpha | 20.82 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.538 |
| Beta Downside | 0.311 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) January 03, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) is a Chinese logistics firm that offers express delivery, freight forwarding, and value-added services to e-commerce and traditional merchants across the People’s Republic of China. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, ZTO operates within the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry of the GICS framework.
Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) show that ZTO processed roughly 1.3 billion parcels, delivering a year-over-year volume growth of 18 % and generating revenue of ¥71 billion (≈ US$10 billion) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 13 %. The company’s performance is closely tied to China’s e-commerce expansion-online retail sales grew 12 % YoY in 2023-and to government initiatives that improve last-mile infrastructure, such as the “New Infrastructure” plan targeting 5G and smart logistics hubs.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s detailed valuation model for ZTO useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 8.82b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 19.16% < 20% (prev -2.68%; Δ 21.84% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 15.08b > Net Income 8.82b |
| Net Debt (2.53b) to EBITDA (13.03b): 0.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (822.6m) vs 12m ago -1.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.00% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 2568 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.61% > 50% (prev 44.99%; Δ 6.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 46.87 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 13.03b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m) |
Altman Z'' 4.67
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 33.17b - Total Current Liabilities 24.07b) / Total Assets 90.54b |
| B: 0.45 (Retained Earnings 41.15b / Total Assets 90.54b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 11.19b / Avg Total Assets 91.93b) |
| D: 1.63 (Book Value of Equity 41.15b / Total Liabilities 25.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.67 = AA |
Beneish M -3.14
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 1.91b/2.15b, Revenue 47.45b/41.98b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 26.00% / 31.17%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 47.45b / 41.98b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 8.82b - CFO 15.08b) / TA 90.54b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ZTO shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.63 with a total of 3,076,729 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.25%, over one month by +8.84%, over three months by +25.09% and over the past year by +29.10%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.25%, over one month by +8.84%, over three months by +25.09% and over the past year by +29.10%.
Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.9 | 1.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.9 | 1.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27 | 14.3% |
ZTO Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
Market Cap CNY = 120.88b (17.41b USD * 6.9418 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 14.2774
P/E Forward = 13.459
P/S = 0.3665
P/B = 1.8809
P/EG = 2.0395
Revenue TTM = 47.45b CNY
EBIT TTM = 11.19b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.03b CNY
Long Term Debt = 289.3m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.63b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.53b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 128.84b CNY (120.88b + Debt 17.35b - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.87 (Ebit TTM 11.19b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m)
EV/FCF = 16.90x (Enterprise Value 128.84b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
FCF Yield = 5.92% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 128.84b)
FCF Margin = 16.07% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Net Margin = 18.60% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.00% ((Revenue TTM 47.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.91% (prev 24.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.42 (Enterprise Value 128.84b / Total Assets 90.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 54.4k / Debt 17.35b)
Taxrate = 5.93% (159.2m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 10.53b (EBIT 11.19b * (1 - 5.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 33.17b / Total Current Liabilities 24.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 17.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 13.03b)
Debt / FCF = 0.33 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.60% (Net Income 8.82b / Total Assets 90.54b)
RoE = 13.94% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 63.30b)
RoCE = 17.60% (EBIT 11.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 63.30b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 13.29% (NOPAT 10.53b / Invested Capital 79.20b)
WACC = 6.91% (E(120.88b)/V(138.23b) * Re(7.90%) + D(17.35b)/V(138.23b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 7.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.90% ; FCFF base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.44b
Fair Price DCF = 459.4 (EV 269.34b - Net Debt 2.53b = Equity 266.82b / Shares 580.8m; r=6.91% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -0.94 | EPS CAGR: -38.22% | SUE: -2.79 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=-0.095 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.48 | Chg30d=+0.051 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+10.4% | Growth Revenue=+10.7%
P/E Trailing = 14.2774
P/E Forward = 13.459
P/S = 0.3665
P/B = 1.8809
P/EG = 2.0395
Revenue TTM = 47.45b CNY
EBIT TTM = 11.19b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.03b CNY
Long Term Debt = 289.3m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.63b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.53b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 128.84b CNY (120.88b + Debt 17.35b - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.87 (Ebit TTM 11.19b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m)
EV/FCF = 16.90x (Enterprise Value 128.84b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
FCF Yield = 5.92% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 128.84b)
FCF Margin = 16.07% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Net Margin = 18.60% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.00% ((Revenue TTM 47.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.91% (prev 24.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.42 (Enterprise Value 128.84b / Total Assets 90.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 54.4k / Debt 17.35b)
Taxrate = 5.93% (159.2m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 10.53b (EBIT 11.19b * (1 - 5.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 33.17b / Total Current Liabilities 24.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 17.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 13.03b)
Debt / FCF = 0.33 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.60% (Net Income 8.82b / Total Assets 90.54b)
RoE = 13.94% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 63.30b)
RoCE = 17.60% (EBIT 11.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 63.30b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 13.29% (NOPAT 10.53b / Invested Capital 79.20b)
WACC = 6.91% (E(120.88b)/V(138.23b) * Re(7.90%) + D(17.35b)/V(138.23b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 7.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.90% ; FCFF base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.44b
Fair Price DCF = 459.4 (EV 269.34b - Net Debt 2.53b = Equity 266.82b / Shares 580.8m; r=6.91% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -0.94 | EPS CAGR: -38.22% | SUE: -2.79 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=-0.095 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.48 | Chg30d=+0.051 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+10.4% | Growth Revenue=+10.7%