(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Ratings and Ratios
Express Delivery, Freight Forwarding, Logistics Services
ZTO EPS (Earnings per Share)
ZTO Revenue
Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a leading logistics company in China, providing express delivery and value-added services to e-commerce merchants, traditional merchants, and other express service users. The companys extensive network and capabilities enable it to offer a range of services, including freight forwarding, to cater to the diverse needs of its customers.
With a strong presence in the Chinese logistics market, ZTO Express has established itself as a key player in the industry. The companys revenue growth is driven by the increasing demand for e-commerce logistics services in China, which is fueled by the countrys rapidly expanding online shopping market. Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth rate, package volume, and average revenue per package (ARPP) are crucial in evaluating the companys operational efficiency and financial health.
Some key metrics to consider when evaluating ZTO Express include its operating margin, which indicates the companys ability to maintain profitability amidst intense competition in the logistics industry. Additionally, the companys return on equity (RoE) of 15.30% suggests that it is generating strong returns for its shareholders. Other relevant KPIs include the companys debt-to-equity ratio, which can help assess its financial leverage, and its days inventory outstanding (DIO), which can indicate its ability to manage inventory effectively.
To further analyze ZTO Express, it is essential to examine its competitive positioning within the Chinese logistics market. The companys market share, customer acquisition costs, and customer retention rates are all important factors to consider. Moreover, the companys ability to invest in technology and infrastructure to improve its operational efficiency and customer experience is crucial in maintaining its competitive edge.
ZTO Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 14,426m |
| Sub-Industry | Air Freight & Logistics |
| IPO / Inception | 2016-10-27 |
ZTO Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -49.9% |
| Fundamental | 69.5% |
| Dividend Rating | 57.2% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -25.7% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.57 of 5 |
ZTO Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 3.38% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.26% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 26.45% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.8% |
ZTO Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 51.5% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -48.2% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -81.5% |
| CAGR 5y | -8.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y | -0.19 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y | -0.35 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.51 |
| Alpha | -30.59 |
| Beta | 0.916 |
| Volatility | 32.03% |
| Current Volume | 792.2k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1813k |
| Stop Loss | 18.4 (-3.5%) |
| Signal | -0.83 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (8.71b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.78b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.29pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 13.10% (prev 14.48%; Δ -1.39pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 10.45b > Net Income 8.71b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (5.58b) to EBITDA (9.82b) ratio: 0.57 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.21 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (832.1m) change vs 12m ago -0.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 27.48% (prev 30.85%; Δ -3.37pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 49.88% (prev 44.32%; Δ 5.55pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 26.56 (EBITDA TTM 9.82b / Interest Expense TTM 305.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.81
| (A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 34.52b - Total Current Liabilities 28.45b) / Total Assets 94.62b |
| (B) 0.43 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 40.35b / Total Assets 94.62b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 8.10b / Avg Total Assets 92.86b |
| (D) 1.35 = Book Value of Equity 40.11b / Total Liabilities 29.76b |
| Total Rating: 3.81 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 69.53
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt = 2.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.79% = 3.89 |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.93% = 3.98 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.29 = 2.46 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.89 = 0.22 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC -0.31% = -0.38 |
| 7. RoE 13.99% = 1.17 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 83.24% = 4.16 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 10.71% = 1.34 |
| 10. EPS Trend 9.71% = 0.24 |
| 11. EPS CAGR -0.42% = -0.05 |
What is the price of ZTO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.93%, over one month by -4.75%, over three months by +7.20% and over the past year by -11.59%.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ZTO is around 17.94 USD . This means that ZTO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -5.88%.
Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.7 | 24.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.7 | 24.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.9 | 4.5% |
Last update: 2025-09-02 02:47
ZTO Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 26.52b CNY (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 12.2973
P/E Forward = 11.919
P/S = 0.3114
P/B = 1.6223
P/EG = 2.0195
Beta = -0.167
Revenue TTM = 46.32b CNY
EBIT TTM = 8.10b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 9.82b CNY
Long Term Debt = 180.0m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.37b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.55b CNY (Calculated: Short Term 18.37b + Long Term 180.0m)
Net Debt = 5.58b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 94.75b CNY (102.72b + Debt 18.55b - CCE 26.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.56 (Ebit TTM 8.10b / Interest Expense TTM 305.1m)
FCF Yield = 7.79% (FCF TTM 7.38b / Enterprise Value 94.75b)
FCF Margin = 15.93% (FCF TTM 7.38b / Revenue TTM 46.32b)
Net Margin = 18.81% (Net Income TTM 8.71b / Revenue TTM 46.32b)
Gross Margin = 27.48% ((Revenue TTM 46.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 33.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.36 (Enterprise Value 94.75b / Book Value Of Equity 40.11b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.53% (Interest Expense 98.1m / Debt 18.55b)
Taxrate = 24.25% (2.85b / 11.73b)
NOPAT = 6.14b (EBIT 8.10b * (1 - 24.25%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 34.52b / Total Current Liabilities 28.45b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 18.55b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 64.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.89 (Net Debt 5.58b / EBITDA 9.82b)
Debt / FCF = 2.51 (Debt 18.55b / FCF TTM 7.38b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 62.27b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 9.21% (Net Income 8.71b, Total Assets 94.62b )
RoE = 13.99% (Net Income TTM 8.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 62.27b)
RoCE = 12.98% (Ebit 8.10b / (Equity 62.27b + L.T.Debt 180.0m))
RoIC = 7.71% (NOPAT 6.14b / Invested Capital 79.63b)
WACC = 8.01% (E(102.72b)/V(121.27b) * Re(9.39%)) + (D(18.55b)/V(121.27b) * Rd(0.53%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -44.28 | Cagr: 0.12%
Discount Rate = 9.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.15% ; FCFE base≈5.71b ; Y1≈5.93b ; Y5≈6.78b
Fair Price DCF = 158.5 (DCF Value 94.11b / Shares Outstanding 593.7m; 5y FCF grow 4.03% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 83.24 | Revenue CAGR: 10.71%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: 4.80
EPS Correlation: 9.71 | EPS CAGR: -0.42%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: -4.35
Additional Sources for ZTO Stock
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