(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: China •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US98980A1051
Express, Freight, E-Commerce, Logistics
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.00% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.58% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 34.10% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 5.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.33% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 |
| Alpha | 7.99 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.402 |
| Beta | 0.555 |
| Beta Downside | 0.418 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.86% |
| Mean DD | 22.21% |
| Median DD | 25.97% |
Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) October 30, 2025
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO) is a Shanghai-based logistics firm that offers express delivery, freight forwarding, and value-added services to e-commerce and traditional merchants across the People’s Republic of China. Founded in 2002, the company operates within the GICS “Air Freight & Logistics” sub-industry and trades as common stock.
Key operating metrics as of FY 2023 show revenue of roughly ¥31 billion, up about 12 % year-over-year, driven by a 15 % increase in parcel volume to over 2.3 billion pieces. Net profit margin improved to 6.8 % after a cost-reduction program that trimmed fuel and labor expenses. The business is highly sensitive to China’s e-commerce growth-online retail sales are projected to expand at 9-10 % CAGR through 2027-and to regulatory shifts affecting “last-mile” delivery pricing.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of ZTO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (8.82b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.85b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 19.16% (prev -2.68%; Δ 21.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 10.55b > Net Income 8.82b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.53b) to EBITDA (13.03b) ratio: 0.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.38 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (822.6m) change vs 12m ago -1.88% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 26.00% (prev 31.17%; Δ -5.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 51.61% (prev 44.99%; Δ 6.62pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 46.87 (EBITDA TTM 13.03b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.67
| (A) 0.10 = (Total Current Assets 33.17b - Total Current Liabilities 24.07b) / Total Assets 90.54b |
| (B) 0.45 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 41.15b / Total Assets 90.54b |
| (C) 0.12 = EBIT TTM 11.19b / Avg Total Assets 91.93b |
| (D) 1.63 = Book Value of Equity 41.15b / Total Liabilities 25.18b |
| Total Rating: 4.67 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 81.38
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.08% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.07% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.19 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.27)% |
| 7. RoE 13.94% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 87.79% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.09% |
What is the price of ZTO shares?
As of December 08, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 21.68 with a total of 2,083,820 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.23%, over one month by +15.07%, over three months by +16.80% and over the past year by +15.82%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.23%, over one month by +15.07%, over three months by +16.80% and over the past year by +15.82%.
Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.4 | 8.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.4 | 8.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 24.1 | 11.3% |
ZTO Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
Market Cap CNY = 117.47b (16.62b USD * 7.0696 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 13.7303
P/E Forward = 12.8866
P/S = 0.3498
P/B = 1.803
P/EG = 1.9515
Beta = -0.177
Revenue TTM = 47.45b CNY
EBIT TTM = 11.19b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.03b CNY
Long Term Debt = 289.3m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.63b CNY (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.53b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 125.43b CNY (117.47b + Debt 17.35b - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.87 (Ebit TTM 11.19b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m)
FCF Yield = 6.08% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 125.43b)
FCF Margin = 16.07% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Net Margin = 18.60% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.00% ((Revenue TTM 47.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.91% (prev 24.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 125.43b / Total Assets 90.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 54.4k / Debt 17.35b)
Taxrate = 5.93% (159.2m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 10.53b (EBIT 11.19b * (1 - 5.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 33.17b / Total Current Liabilities 24.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 17.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 13.03b)
Debt / FCF = 0.33 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.75% (Net Income 8.82b / Total Assets 90.54b)
RoE = 13.94% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 63.30b)
RoCE = 17.60% (EBIT 11.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 63.30b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 13.29% (NOPAT 10.53b / Invested Capital 79.20b)
WACC = 7.02% (E(117.47b)/V(134.82b) * Re(8.06%) + D(17.35b)/V(134.82b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.39% ; FCFE base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.46b
Fair Price DCF = 364.3 (DCF Value 211.57b / Shares Outstanding 580.8m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.09 | EPS CAGR: 9.46% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.048 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.23 | Chg30d=+0.100 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+8.6% | Growth Revenue=+11.4%
P/E Trailing = 13.7303
P/E Forward = 12.8866
P/S = 0.3498
P/B = 1.803
P/EG = 1.9515
Beta = -0.177
Revenue TTM = 47.45b CNY
EBIT TTM = 11.19b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.03b CNY
Long Term Debt = 289.3m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.63b CNY (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.53b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 125.43b CNY (117.47b + Debt 17.35b - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.87 (Ebit TTM 11.19b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m)
FCF Yield = 6.08% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 125.43b)
FCF Margin = 16.07% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Net Margin = 18.60% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.00% ((Revenue TTM 47.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.91% (prev 24.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 125.43b / Total Assets 90.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 54.4k / Debt 17.35b)
Taxrate = 5.93% (159.2m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 10.53b (EBIT 11.19b * (1 - 5.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 33.17b / Total Current Liabilities 24.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 17.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 13.03b)
Debt / FCF = 0.33 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.75% (Net Income 8.82b / Total Assets 90.54b)
RoE = 13.94% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 63.30b)
RoCE = 17.60% (EBIT 11.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 63.30b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 13.29% (NOPAT 10.53b / Invested Capital 79.20b)
WACC = 7.02% (E(117.47b)/V(134.82b) * Re(8.06%) + D(17.35b)/V(134.82b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.39% ; FCFE base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.46b
Fair Price DCF = 364.3 (DCF Value 211.57b / Shares Outstanding 580.8m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.09 | EPS CAGR: 9.46% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.048 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.23 | Chg30d=+0.100 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+8.6% | Growth Revenue=+11.4%
Additional Sources for ZTO Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle