ZTO Stock Analysis: ZTO Express (Cayman) | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 15.848m USD | 12M Return: 18.8% | US98980A1051 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 39.5M
EPS Trend: -4.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a China-based logistics company that provides express delivery and value-added logistics services across the Peoples Republic of China. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, the company also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics, integrated warehousing, distribution, and transportation solutions, as well as freight forwarding services. ZTO is listed on the NYSE under the ticker ZTO and falls within the Industrials sector (Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry).
The company operates within Chinas highly competitive express delivery industry, which has been driven primarily by the rapid growth of e-commerce. ZTO employs an asset-light franchise-style partner network model, partnering with regional pickup and delivery operators rather than using a fully company-owned fleet, which has been a defining feature of its cost structure and scale across Chinese provinces.
- Parcel volume growth outpaces industry amid China e-commerce rebound
- Price war pressures per-parcel margins and profitability
- Buyback program accelerates capital returns to shareholders
| Net Income: 10.3b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.95 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 29.90% < 20% (prev 13.10%; Δ 16.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 14.8b > Net Income 10.3b |
| Net Debt (-8.98b) to EBITDA (14.3b): -0.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (815.0m) vs 12m ago -2.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.10% > 18% (prev 27.48%; Δ -2.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 55.74% > 50% (prev 48.95%; Δ 6.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 74.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 11.0b / Interest Expense TTM 147.6m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 40.1b - Total Current Liabilities 24.0b) / Total Assets 98.8b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 42.9b / Total Assets 98.8b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 11.0b / Avg Total Assets 96.7b) |
| D: 1.82 (Book Value of Equity 63.7b / Total Liabilities 35.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.16 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 2.72b/2.37b, Revenue 53.9b/46.3b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 27.48% / 25.10%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 53.9b / 46.3b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 10.3b - CFO 14.8b) / TA 98.8b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.95 with a total of 1,750,969 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.56%, over one month by -12.64%, over three months by -6.93% and over the past year by +18.83%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.30 (which is 3.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.6 | 36.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.0053
P/E Forward = 10.0604
P/S = 0.2924
P/B = 1.68
P/EG = 1.0708
Revenue TTM = 53.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 11.0b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 142.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 11.7b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 339.1m
Net Debt = -8.98b USD (calculated: Debt 22.4b - CCE 31.4b)
Enterprise Value = 6.87b USD (15.8b + Debt 22.4b - CCE 31.4b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 74.32 (Ebit TTM 11.0b / Interest Expense TTM 147.6m)
EV/FCF = 0.99x (Enterprise Value 6.87b / FCF TTM 6.91b)
FCF Yield = 100.6% (FCF TTM 6.91b / Enterprise Value 6.87b)
FCF Margin = 12.83% (FCF TTM 6.91b / Revenue TTM 53.9b)
Net Margin = 19.03% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Revenue TTM 53.9b)
Gross Margin = 25.10% ((Revenue TTM 53.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 40.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.66% (prev 24.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 6.87b / Total Assets 98.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.66% (Interest Expense 147.6m / Debt 22.4b)
Taxrate = 13.32% (1.60b / 12.0b)
NOPAT = 9.51b (EBIT 11.0b * (1 - 13.32%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 40.1b / Total Current Liabilities 24.0b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 22.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 63.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.63 (Net Debt -8.98b / EBITDA 14.3b)
Debt / FCF = -1.30 (Net Debt -8.98b / FCF TTM 6.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.61% (Net Income 10.3b / Total Assets 98.8b)
RoE = 15.97% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.2b)
RoCE = 17.04% (EBIT 11.0b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.2b + L.T.Debt 142.1m))
RoIC = 11.34% (NOPAT 9.51b / Invested Capital 83.8b)
WACC = 3.18% (E(15.8b)/V(38.2b) * Re(6.87%) + D(22.4b)/V(38.2b) * Rd(0.66%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 6.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -81.12 | Cagr: -1.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.26% ; FCFF base≈7.16b ; Y1≈6.70b ; Y5≈6.16b
[DCF] Fair Price = 192.7 (EV 97.4b - Net Debt -8.98b = Equity 106b / Shares 551.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -8.11% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -4.36 | EPS CAGR: -0.28% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.51 | Revenue CAGR: 13.66% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.36 | Chg30d=-8.11% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.49 | Chg30d=-2.33% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+17.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.08 | Chg30d=-2.13% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+11.8% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)