(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Overview
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 17.214m USD | Total Return: 27.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 41.2M
EPS Trend: 76.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Confidence
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a Shanghai-based logistics provider specializing in express delivery and value-added services across mainland China. The company’s service portfolio includes less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping, freight forwarding, and integrated warehousing and distribution solutions.
Operating within the high-volume Chinese e-commerce ecosystem, ZTO utilizes a partner-network model where the company manages the critical line-haul transportation and sorting hubs while delegating first- and last-mile pickup and delivery to third-party network partners. This asset-light approach allows for rapid scalability in a sector characterized by intense price competition and high capital expenditure requirements for automated sorting technology.
Investors seeking detailed valuation metrics and peer comparisons should consult ValueRay for further analysis. The company remains a central player in the Air Freight & Logistics industry, benefiting from the long-term structural growth of domestic consumption in China.
- Chinese e-commerce volume growth directly correlates with parcel delivery revenue
- Market share expansion via price competition impacts quarterly operating margins
- Line-haul transportation costs fluctuate based on diesel prices and automation efficiency
- Regulatory oversight of labor practices affects long-term personnel cost structures
- Expansion of integrated logistics and LTL services diversifies traditional revenue streams
| Net Income: 9.16b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 29.60% < 20% (prev 3.35%; Δ 26.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 24.7b > Net Income 9.16b |
| Net Debt (-8.35b) to EBITDA (13.6b): -0.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (798.3m) vs 12m ago -4.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.89% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 2.46k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.66% > 50% (prev 48.54%; Δ 5.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 58.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 13.6b / Interest Expense TTM 175.3m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 38.9b - Total Current Liabilities 23.7b) / Total Assets 97.8b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 39.9b / Total Assets 97.8b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 10.3b / Avg Total Assets 95.5b) |
| D: 1.13 (Book Value of Equity 39.6b / Total Liabilities 34.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.26 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 2.30b/2.09b, Revenue 51.2b/45.2b) |
| GMI: 1.19 (GM 24.89% / 29.65%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 51.2b / 45.2b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 9.16b - CFO 24.7b) / TA 97.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.12 with a total of 1,434,643 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.11%,
over one month by -12.81%,
over three months by -7.82% and
over the past year by +27.79%.
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 29.2 | 31.8% |
P/E Trailing = 13.369
P/E Forward = 11.9904
P/S = 0.3348
P/B = 1.9039
P/EG = 1.2235
Revenue TTM = 51.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.3b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.2b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 339.1m
Net Debt = -8.35b USD (calculated: Debt 22.1b - CCE 30.5b)
Enterprise Value = 8.86b USD (17.2b + Debt 22.1b - CCE 30.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 58.63 (Ebit TTM 10.3b / Interest Expense TTM 175.3m)
EV/FCF = 2.61x (Enterprise Value 8.86b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
FCF Yield = 38.31% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Enterprise Value 8.86b)
FCF Margin = 6.63% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Revenue TTM 51.2b)
Net Margin = 17.87% (Net Income TTM 9.16b / Revenue TTM 51.2b)
Gross Margin = 24.89% ((Revenue TTM 51.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 38.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.36% (prev 25.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.09 (Enterprise Value 8.86b / Total Assets 97.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.79% (Interest Expense 175.3m / Debt 22.1b)
Taxrate = 20.39% (552.2m / 2.71b)
NOPAT = 8.18b (EBIT 10.3b * (1 - 20.39%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 38.9b / Total Current Liabilities 23.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 22.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 62.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.62 (Net Debt -8.35b / EBITDA 13.6b)
Debt / FCF = -2.46 (Net Debt -8.35b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.59% (Net Income 9.16b / Total Assets 97.8b)
RoE = 14.23% (Net Income TTM 9.16b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.4b)
RoCE = 13.75% (EBIT 10.3b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.4b + L.T.Debt 10.4b))
RoIC = 9.59% (NOPAT 8.18b / Invested Capital 85.3b)
WACC = 3.20% (E(17.2b)/V(39.3b) * Re(6.51%) + D(22.1b)/V(39.3b) * Rd(0.79%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.91 | Cagr: -2.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈5.68b ; Y1≈4.98b ; Y5≈4.03b
[DCF] Fair Price = 130.2 (EV 64.6b - Net Debt -8.35b = Equity 73.0b / Shares 560.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 76.01 | EPS CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.25 | Revenue CAGR: 12.52% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.38 | Chg30d=+4.52% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.66 | Chg30d=+4.83% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.75 | Chg30d=+3.90% | Revisions=+69% | GrowthEPS=+19.4% | GrowthRev=+16.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.28 | Chg30d=+3.29% | Revisions=+69% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +69%