ZTO Stock Analysis: ZTO Express (Cayman) | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 17.834m USD | 12M Return: 33.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 31.9M
EPS Trend: 76.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 9.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a China-based logistics company that provides express delivery and value-added logistics services across the Peoples Republic of China. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Shanghai, the company also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics, integrated warehousing, distribution, and transportation solutions, as well as freight forwarding services. ZTO is listed on the NYSE under the ticker ZTO and falls within the Industrials sector (Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry).
The company operates within Chinas highly competitive express delivery industry, which has been driven primarily by the rapid growth of e-commerce. ZTO employs an asset-light franchise-style partner network model, partnering with regional pickup and delivery operators rather than using a fully company-owned fleet, which has been a defining feature of its cost structure and scale across Chinese provinces.
- Parcel volume growth outpaces industry amid China e-commerce rebound
- Price war pressures per-parcel margins and profitability
- Buyback program accelerates capital returns to shareholders
| Net Income: 9.16b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 29.60% < 20% (prev 3.35%; Δ 26.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 24.7b > Net Income 9.16b |
| Net Debt (-8.35b) to EBITDA (13.6b): -0.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (798.3m) vs 12m ago -4.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.89% > 18% (prev 29.65%; Δ -4.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.66% > 50% (prev 48.54%; Δ 5.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 58.63 > 6 (EBIT TTM 10.3b / Interest Expense TTM 175.3m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 38.9b - Total Current Liabilities 23.7b) / Total Assets 97.8b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 39.9b / Total Assets 97.8b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 10.3b / Avg Total Assets 95.5b) |
| D: 1.78 (Book Value of Equity 62.1b / Total Liabilities 34.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.94 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 2.30b/2.09b, Revenue 51.2b/45.2b) |
| GMI: 1.19 (GM 29.65% / 24.89%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 51.2b / 45.2b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 9.16b - CFO 24.7b) / TA 97.8b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.83 with a total of 1,025,700 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.25%, over one month by +4.38%, over three months by -5.06% and over the past year by +33.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.20 (which is 2.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 29.1 | 22.1% |
P/E Trailing = 13.7941
P/E Forward = 12.3305
P/S = 0.3464
P/B = 1.9518
P/EG = 1.258
Revenue TTM = 51.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.3b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 10.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.2b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 339.1m
Net Debt = -8.35b USD (calculated: Debt 22.1b - CCE 30.5b)
Enterprise Value = 9.48b USD (17.8b + Debt 22.1b - CCE 30.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 58.63 (Ebit TTM 10.3b / Interest Expense TTM 175.3m)
EV/FCF = 2.79x (Enterprise Value 9.48b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
FCF Yield = 35.81% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Enterprise Value 9.48b)
FCF Margin = 6.63% (FCF TTM 3.39b / Revenue TTM 51.2b)
Net Margin = 17.87% (Net Income TTM 9.16b / Revenue TTM 51.2b)
Gross Margin = 24.89% ((Revenue TTM 51.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 38.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.36% (prev 25.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 9.48b / Total Assets 97.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.79% (Interest Expense 175.3m / Debt 22.1b)
Taxrate = 17.08% (1.92b / 11.2b)
NOPAT = 8.52b (EBIT 10.3b * (1 - 17.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 38.9b / Total Current Liabilities 23.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 22.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 62.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.62 (Net Debt -8.35b / EBITDA 13.6b)
Debt / FCF = -2.46 (Net Debt -8.35b / FCF TTM 3.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.59% (Net Income 9.16b / Total Assets 97.8b)
RoE = 14.23% (Net Income TTM 9.16b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.4b)
RoCE = 13.75% (EBIT 10.3b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.4b + L.T.Debt 10.4b))
RoIC = 10.30% (NOPAT 8.52b / Invested Capital 82.7b)
WACC = 3.35% (E(17.8b)/V(40.0b) * Re(6.69%) + D(22.1b)/V(40.0b) * Rd(0.79%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 6.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.91 | Cagr: -2.09%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈5.68b ; Y1≈4.98b ; Y5≈4.03b
[DCF] Fair Price = 131.6 (EV 64.6b - Net Debt -8.35b = Equity 73.0b / Shares 554.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 76.01 | EPS CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.25 | Revenue CAGR: 12.52% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.41 | Chg30d=+0.77% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.66 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.81 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+79% | GrowthEPS=+19.9% | GrowthRev=+16.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.40 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81% (up=23, down=1)