Overview Dividends

(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: China • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US98980A1051

Express, Freight, E-Commerce, Logistics

Air Freight & Logistics
Market Cap in USD: 16,737m

IPO / Inception: 2016-10-27
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -4.45%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 9.46%
EPS Trend: 36.1%

Last SUE: 0.62
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.81%
Rev. Trend: 87.8%

Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	3.05%
Yield on Cost 5y	2.60%
Yield CAGR 5y	34.10%
Payout Consistency	96.8%
Payout Ratio	5.7%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	27.1%
Value at Risk 5%th	39.9%
Relative Tail Risk	-10.69%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.38
Alpha	-0.29
CAGR/Max DD	-0.10

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.412
Beta	0.563
Beta Downside	0.333

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	44.86%
Mean DD	22.51%
Median DD	25.97%

Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) October 30, 2025

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO) is a Shanghai-based logistics firm that offers express delivery, freight forwarding, and value-added services to e-commerce and traditional merchants across the People’s Republic of China. Founded in 2002, the company operates within the GICS “Air Freight & Logistics” sub-industry and trades as common stock.

Key operating metrics as of FY 2023 show revenue of roughly ¥31 billion, up about 12 % year-over-year, driven by a 15 % increase in parcel volume to over 2.3 billion pieces. Net profit margin improved to 6.8 % after a cost-reduction program that trimmed fuel and labor expenses. The business is highly sensitive to China’s e-commerce growth-online retail sales are projected to expand at 9-10 % CAGR through 2027-and to regulatory shifts affecting “last-mile” delivery pricing.

For a deeper quantitative breakdown of ZTO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0

Net Income (8.82b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.85b TTM)

FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 19.16% (prev -2.68%; Δ 21.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 15.08b > Net Income 8.82b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (2.53b) to EBITDA (13.03b) ratio: 0.19 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.38 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (822.6m) change vs 12m ago -1.88% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 26.00% (prev 31.17%; Δ -5.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 51.61% (prev 44.99%; Δ 6.62pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 46.87 (EBITDA TTM 13.03b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 4.67

(A) 0.10 = (Total Current Assets 33.17b - Total Current Liabilities 24.07b) / Total Assets 90.54b

(B) 0.45 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 41.15b / Total Assets 90.54b

(D) 1.63 = Book Value of Equity 41.15b / Total Liabilities 25.18b

Total Rating: 4.67 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 81.34

1. Piotroski 7.0pt

2. FCF Yield 6.06%

3. FCF Margin 16.07%

4. Debt/Equity 0.27

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.19

6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.24)%

7. RoE 13.94%

8. Rev. Trend 87.79%

9. EPS Trend 36.09%

What is the price of ZTO shares?

As of December 23, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 21.28 with a total of 3,396,122 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.09%, over one month by +8.19%, over three months by +15.14% and over the past year by +11.33%.

Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?

ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.

Strong Buy: 14
Buy: 5
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	23.7	11.4%
Analysts Target Price	23.7	11.4%
ValueRay Target Price	23.4	9.8%

ZTO Fundamental Data Overview December 22, 2025

Market Cap CNY = 117.85b (16.74b USD * 7.0411 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 13.902
P/E Forward = 13.0548
P/S = 0.3523
P/B = 1.8214
P/EG = 1.9784
Beta = -0.186
Revenue TTM = 47.45b CNY
EBIT TTM = 11.19b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.03b CNY
Long Term Debt = 289.3m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.63b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 2.53b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 125.80b CNY (117.85b + Debt 17.35b - CCE 9.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.87 (Ebit TTM 11.19b / Interest Expense TTM 238.8m)
FCF Yield = 6.06% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Enterprise Value 125.80b)
FCF Margin = 16.07% (FCF TTM 7.62b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Net Margin = 18.60% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Revenue TTM 47.45b)
Gross Margin = 26.00% ((Revenue TTM 47.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 35.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.91% (prev 24.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 125.80b / Total Assets 90.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 54.4k / Debt 17.35b)
Taxrate = 5.93% (159.2m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 10.53b (EBIT 11.19b * (1 - 5.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 33.17b / Total Current Liabilities 24.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 17.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.19 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 13.03b)
Debt / FCF = 0.33 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 7.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.75% (Net Income 8.82b / Total Assets 90.54b)
RoE = 13.94% (Net Income TTM 8.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 63.30b)
RoCE = 17.60% (EBIT 11.19b / Capital Employed (Equity 63.30b + L.T.Debt 289.3m))
RoIC = 13.29% (NOPAT 10.53b / Invested Capital 79.20b)
WACC = 7.05% (E(117.85b)/V(135.19b) * Re(8.09%) + D(17.35b)/V(135.19b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.29% ; FCFE base≈5.92b ; Y1≈7.31b ; Y5≈12.46b
Fair Price DCF = 362.1 (DCF Value 210.28b / Shares Outstanding 580.8m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.09 | EPS CAGR: 9.46% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.11 | Chg30d=+0.048 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.43 | Chg30d=+0.320 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+10.2% | Growth Revenue=+11.6%

Additional Sources for ZTO Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle