Overview Dividends

(ZTO) ZTO Express (Cayman) - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: China • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US98980A1051

Express, Freight, E-Commerce, Logistics

ZTO EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -57.79%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -11.1%

ZTO Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 10.71%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 83.2%

Description: ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) October 30, 2025

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: ZTO) is a Shanghai-based logistics firm that offers express delivery, freight forwarding, and value-added services to e-commerce and traditional merchants across the People’s Republic of China. Founded in 2002, the company operates within the GICS “Air Freight & Logistics” sub-industry and trades as common stock.

Key operating metrics as of FY 2023 show revenue of roughly ¥31 billion, up about 12 % year-over-year, driven by a 15 % increase in parcel volume to over 2.3 billion pieces. Net profit margin improved to 6.8 % after a cost-reduction program that trimmed fuel and labor expenses. The business is highly sensitive to China’s e-commerce growth-online retail sales are projected to expand at 9-10 % CAGR through 2027-and to regulatory shifts affecting “last-mile” delivery pricing.

For a deeper quantitative breakdown of ZTO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.

ZTO Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	14,594m
Sub-Industry	Air Freight & Logistics
IPO / Inception	2016-10-27

ZTO Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	-22.6%
Fundamental	79.0%
Dividend Rating	61.6%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-24.8%
Analyst Rating	4.57 of 5

ZTO Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	3.45%
Yield on Cost 5y	2.35%
Annual Growth 5y	34.10%
Payout Consistency	96.8%
Payout Ratio	7.7%

ZTO Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	1.2%
Growth Correlation 12m	1.5%
Growth Correlation 5y	-81.1%
CAGR 5y	-0.83%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	-0.02
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	-0.04
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.52
Alpha	-16.96
Beta	-0.168
Volatility	30.17%
Current Volume	1717.1k
Average Volume 20d	1551.6k
Stop Loss	18.2 (-3.4%)
Signal	0.03

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5

Net Income (8.71b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.78b TTM)

FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 13.10% (prev 14.48%; Δ -1.39pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 10.45b > Net Income 8.71b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (5.58b) to EBITDA (13.62b) ratio: 0.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.21 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (832.1m) change vs 12m ago -0.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 27.48% (prev 30.85%; Δ -3.37pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 49.88% (prev 44.32%; Δ 5.55pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 34.17 (EBITDA TTM 13.62b / Interest Expense TTM 305.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.98

(A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 34.52b - Total Current Liabilities 28.45b) / Total Assets 94.62b

(B) 0.43 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 40.35b / Total Assets 94.62b

(D) 1.35 = Book Value of Equity 40.11b / Total Liabilities 29.76b

Total Rating: 3.98 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.02

1. Piotroski 7.50pt = 2.50

2. FCF Yield 7.81% = 3.91

3. FCF Margin 16.24% = 4.06

4. Debt/Equity 0.29 = 2.46

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.41 = 2.37

6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.50)% = 6.87

7. RoE 13.99% = 1.17

8. Rev. Trend 83.24% = 6.24

9. EPS Trend -11.07% = -0.55

What is the price of ZTO shares?

As of November 08, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 18.84 with a total of 1,717,140 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.34%, over one month by -0.63%, over three months by -7.70% and over the past year by -14.29%.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) a good stock to buy?

Partly, yes. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, ZTO Express (Cayman) (NYSE:ZTO) is currently (November 2025) ok to buy, but has to be watched. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 79.02 and therefor a somewhat positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ZTO is around 18.21 USD . This means that ZTO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -3.34%.

Is ZTO a buy, sell or hold?

ZTO Express (Cayman) has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ZTO.

Strong Buy: 14
Buy: 5
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ZTO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	23.3	23.6%
Analysts Target Price	23.3	23.6%
ValueRay Target Price	19.6	4%

ZTO Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025

Market Cap CNY = 103.94b (14.59b USD * 7.1219 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 12.5772
P/E Forward = 11.5875
P/S = 0.3151
P/B = 1.6925
P/EG = 1.9634
Beta = -0.168
Revenue TTM = 46.32b CNY
EBIT TTM = 10.43b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 13.62b CNY
Long Term Debt = 180.0m CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.37b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.87b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.58b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 96.29b CNY (103.94b + Debt 18.87b - CCE 26.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 34.17 (Ebit TTM 10.43b / Interest Expense TTM 305.1m)
FCF Yield = 7.81% (FCF TTM 7.52b / Enterprise Value 96.29b)
FCF Margin = 16.24% (FCF TTM 7.52b / Revenue TTM 46.32b)
Net Margin = 18.81% (Net Income TTM 8.71b / Revenue TTM 46.32b)
Gross Margin = 27.48% ((Revenue TTM 46.32b - Cost of Revenue TTM 33.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.89% (prev 24.69%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 96.29b / Total Assets 94.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.52% (Interest Expense 98.1m / Debt 18.87b)
Taxrate = 22.66% (575.5m / 2.54b)
NOPAT = 8.06b (EBIT 10.43b * (1 - 22.66%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 34.52b / Total Current Liabilities 28.45b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 18.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.41 (Net Debt 5.58b / EBITDA 13.62b)
Debt / FCF = 0.74 (Net Debt 5.58b / FCF TTM 7.52b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 62.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.21% (Net Income 8.71b / Total Assets 94.62b)
RoE = 13.99% (Net Income TTM 8.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 62.27b)
RoCE = 16.70% (EBIT 10.43b / Capital Employed (Equity 62.27b + L.T.Debt 180.0m))
RoIC = 10.13% (NOPAT 8.06b / Invested Capital 79.63b)
WACC = 4.63% (E(103.94b)/V(122.81b) * Re(5.40%) + D(18.87b)/V(122.81b) * Rd(0.52%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 5.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.31%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.83% ; FCFE base≈5.79b ; Y1≈6.02b ; Y5≈6.89b
Fair Price DCF = 205.7 (DCF Value 120.96b / Shares Outstanding 588.1m; 5y FCF grow 4.03% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -11.07 | EPS CAGR: -57.79% | SUE: -2.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.24 | Revenue CAGR: 10.71% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for ZTO Stock

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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle