(SWAN) Amplify BlackSwan Growth - Ratings and Ratios

The Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) is designed to navigate the unpredictable nature of financial markets by employing a unique investment strategy. By allocating at least 80% of its net assets to a combination of U.S. Treasury securities and long-dated call options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the fund seeks to mitigate the impact of rare and highly disruptive events, known as Black Swans.

The funds underlying index is a rules-based, quantitative construct that aims to provide capital protection during periods of significant market turmoil. This is achieved through the strategic use of LEAP Options, which are long-term call options that allow the fund to benefit from potential upside movements in the S&P 500 index while minimizing downside risk.

Given the current technical landscape, with the last price at $29.12 and a 20-day SMA at $28.49, the ETF is exhibiting a bullish trend. The proximity of the 50-day SMA ($28.63) to the 20-day SMA further supports this observation. However, the 200-day SMA at $29.27 may act as a resistance level, potentially capping the upside. Considering the ATR is 0.33, representing a 1.15% daily volatility, traders may anticipate a relatively stable trading range in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, the funds AUM of $241.10M USD indicates a reasonable level of investor interest. As the fund continues to grow, it may benefit from increased economies of scale, potentially leading to reduced expense ratios and enhanced investor returns.

Forecasting the ETFs future performance, we can anticipate that SWAN will continue to benefit from its hedging strategy, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility. As the S&P 500 index experiences significant movements, the long-dated call options will provide a degree of protection and potential upside. Assuming the current trend persists, with the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA maintaining their bullish alignment, we can expect SWAN to trade towards the $30.00 level in the near term, potentially challenging the 52-week high of $30.72. However, a breach of the 200-day SMA at $29.27 could signal a stronger bullish momentum, driving the price higher.