CMCL Stock Analysis: Caledonia Mining | NYSE MKT
Gold | NYSE MKT, USA | Market Cap: 481m USD | 12M Return: 5.4% | JE00BF0XVB15 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.47M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (NYSE MKT: CMCL) is a small-cap materials-sector company headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey, primarily engaged in operating a gold mine alongside exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company was incorporated in 1992 and adopted its current corporate name in March 2016. Listed on the NYSE MKT since 2017, CMCL sits within the GICS Gold sub-industry, a segment of the broader Materials sector that includes producers focused on the extraction and sale of gold and other precious metals. Small-cap gold producers like Caledonia typically operate with concentrated, single-asset or limited-asset portfolios, which can produce higher operational leverage to gold prices but also expose them to greater country, geological, and regulatory risk than diversified mining majors.
- Gold price strength lifts Blanket Mine profit margins
- Central Shaft project ramps up gold production output
- Zimbabwe power shortages and currency volatility pressure costs
| Net Income: 65.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 66.57% < 20% (prev 16.28%; Δ 50.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 82.5m > Net Income 65.5m |
| Net Debt (-53.9m) to EBITDA (138.0m): -0.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.3m) vs 12m ago -0.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.58% > 18% (prev 47.31%; Δ 5.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.03% > 50% (prev 54.84%; Δ 4.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 226.5m - Total Current Liabilities 39.5m) / Total Assets 562.5m |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -11.4m / Total Assets 562.5m) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Avg Total Assets 475.8m) |
| D: 1.23 (Book Value of Equity 293.9m / Total Liabilities 238.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.13 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 7.74m/9.47m, Revenue 280.9m/213.4m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 47.31% / 52.58%) |
| AQI: 81.69 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 280.9m / 213.4m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 65.5m - CFO 82.5m) / TA 562.5m) |
| Beneish M = 44.64 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.63 with a total of 162,170 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.47%, over one month by +38.05%, over three months by +8.71% and over the past year by +5.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.00 (which is 10.3% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Caledonia Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMCL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 66.7% |
P/E Trailing = 7.2384
P/E Forward = 7.8989
P/S = 1.7716
P/B = 1.7987
Revenue TTM = 280.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 122.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 138.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.05m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 7.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 117.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 995k
Net Debt = -53.9m USD (calculated: Debt 117.9m - CCE 171.8m)
Enterprise Value = 427.5m USD (481.4m + Debt 117.9m - CCE 171.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.54 (Ebit TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m)
EV/FCF = 8.18x (Enterprise Value 427.5m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
FCF Yield = 12.23% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Enterprise Value 427.5m)
FCF Margin = 18.62% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Net Margin = 23.31% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Gross Margin = 52.58% ((Revenue TTM 280.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 133.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.41% (prev 48.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 427.5m / Total Assets 562.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.91% (Interest Expense 6.97m / Debt 117.9m)
Taxrate = 32.93% (40.1m / 121.8m)
NOPAT = 82.0m (EBIT 122.3m * (1 - 32.93%))
Current Ratio = 5.73 (Total Current Assets 226.5m / Total Current Liabilities 39.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 117.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 293.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.39 (Net Debt -53.9m / EBITDA 138.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.03 (Net Debt -53.9m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 269.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.76% (Net Income 65.5m / Total Assets 562.5m)
RoE = 24.33% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 269.1m)
RoCE = 44.61% (EBIT 122.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 269.1m + L.T.Debt 5.05m))
RoIC = 15.87% (NOPAT 82.0m / Invested Capital 516.6m)
WACC = 8.25% (E(481.4m)/V(599.3m) * Re(9.30%) + D(117.9m)/V(599.3m) * Rd(5.91%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 9.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 57.27 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈40.0m ; Y1≈45.9m ; Y5≈67.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 55.31 (EV 1.02b - Net Debt -53.9m = Equity 1.07b / Shares 19.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.04 | Revenue CAGR: 31.34% | SUE: -0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-55.38% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.85 | Chg30d=-19.96% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+34.0% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=-0.10% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+32.6% | GrowthRev=+10.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=2, down=0)