CMCL Stock Analysis: Caledonia Mining | NYSE MKT
Gold | NYSE MKT, USA | Market Cap: 343m USD | 12M Return: -15.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.16M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 98.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (NYSE MKT: CMCL) is a small-cap materials-sector company headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey, primarily engaged in operating a gold mine alongside exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company was incorporated in 1992 and adopted its current corporate name in March 2016. Listed on the NYSE MKT since 2017, CMCL sits within the GICS Gold sub-industry, a segment of the broader Materials sector that includes producers focused on the extraction and sale of gold and other precious metals. Small-cap gold producers like Caledonia typically operate with concentrated, single-asset or limited-asset portfolios, which can produce higher operational leverage to gold prices but also expose them to greater country, geological, and regulatory risk than diversified mining majors.
- Gold price strength lifts Blanket Mine profit margins
- Central Shaft project ramps up gold production output
- Zimbabwe power shortages and currency volatility pressure costs
| Net Income: 62.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 64.94% < 20% (prev 11.83%; Δ 53.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 81.9m > Net Income 62.2m |
| Net Debt (-53.2m) to EBITDA (140.2m): -0.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.8m) vs 12m ago 3.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.90% > 18% (prev 45.45%; Δ 6.45% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.80% > 50% (prev 54.50%; Δ 5.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 124.5m / Interest Expense TTM 6.26m) |
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 226.7m - Total Current Liabilities 48.6m) / Total Assets 553.2m |
| B: -0.06 (Retained Earnings -32.4m / Total Assets 553.2m) |
| C: 0.27 (EBIT TTM 124.5m / Avg Total Assets 458.4m) |
| D: 1.07 (Book Value of Equity 271.9m / Total Liabilities 253.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.87 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.38 (Receivables 9.11m/17.5m, Revenue 274.2m/198.2m) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 45.45% / 51.90%) |
| AQI: 115.9 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 274.2m / 198.2m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 62.2m - CFO 81.9m) / TA 553.2m) |
| Beneish M = 64.77 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.33 with a total of 596,932 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.30%, over one month by -17.40%, over three months by -31.30% and over the past year by -15.13%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.90 (which is 8.3% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Caledonia Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMCL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 146.6% |
P/E Trailing = 5.5849
P/E Forward = 5.8651
P/S = 1.3115
P/B = 1.2617
Revenue TTM = 274.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 124.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 140.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 103.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 116.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 995k
Net Debt = -53.2m USD (calculated: Debt 116.8m - CCE 170.0m)
Enterprise Value = 289.8m USD (343.0m + Debt 116.8m - CCE 170.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.89 (Ebit TTM 124.5m / Interest Expense TTM 6.26m)
EV/FCF = 5.97x (Enterprise Value 289.8m / FCF TTM 48.5m)
FCF Yield = 16.75% (FCF TTM 48.5m / Enterprise Value 289.8m)
FCF Margin = 17.71% (FCF TTM 48.5m / Revenue TTM 274.2m)
Net Margin = 22.67% (Net Income TTM 62.2m / Revenue TTM 274.2m)
Gross Margin = 51.90% ((Revenue TTM 274.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 131.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.32% (prev 55.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.52 (Enterprise Value 289.8m / Total Assets 553.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.36% (Interest Expense 6.26m / Debt 116.8m)
Taxrate = 35.16% (40.8m / 116.1m)
NOPAT = 80.8m (EBIT 124.5m * (1 - 35.16%))
Current Ratio = 4.66 (Total Current Assets 226.7m / Total Current Liabilities 48.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 116.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 271.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.38 (Net Debt -53.2m / EBITDA 140.2m)
Debt / FCF = -1.10 (Net Debt -53.2m / FCF TTM 48.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.56% (Net Income 62.2m / Total Assets 553.2m)
RoE = 24.36% (Net Income TTM 62.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 255.2m)
RoCE = 34.71% (EBIT 124.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 255.2m + L.T.Debt 103.6m))
RoIC = 16.08% (NOPAT 80.8m / Invested Capital 502.4m)
WACC = 8.34% (E(343.0m)/V(459.8m) * Re(10.0%) + D(116.8m)/V(459.8m) * Rd(5.36%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 10.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 80.90 | Cagr: 2.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈35.9m ; Y1≈41.2m ; Y5≈60.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.96 (EV 911.7m - Net Debt -53.2m = Equity 964.9m / Shares 19.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 98.78 | Revenue CAGR: 30.48% | SUE: -0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+14.89% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+16.07% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.81 | Chg30d=-8.64% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+67.4% | GrowthRev=+23.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)