CMCL Stock Analysis: Caledonia Mining | NYSE MKT
Gold | NYSE MKT, USA | Market Cap: 459m USD | 12M Return: -30.9% | JE00BF0XVB15 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.84M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is a Jersey-domiciled gold mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe, with additional interests in exploring and developing mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds a 64% controlling stake in the Blanket Mine, a producing gold operation, a 100% interest in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, and 100% ownership of the Motapa and Maligreen gold mining claims. Caledonia was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey, with its shares listed on the NYSE MKT under the ticker CMCL since its 2017 IPO.
Operating in the gold sub-industry of the broader Materials sector, the company is exposed to commodity price volatility, as gold producers revenues and margins are directly influenced by global gold market prices. Its focus on Zimbabwe positions it within Africas significant gold mining landscape, a region that has historically been a notable contributor to global gold output.
- Gold price strength lifts Blanket Mine realized margins
- Blanket Mine production and all-in sustaining cost guidance updates quarterly
- Bilboes Sulphide Project final investment decision timing drives growth capex
- Zimbabwe currency volatility and indigenization policy pressures operating costs
| Net Income: 65.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 66.57% < 20% (prev 16.28%; Δ 50.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 82.5m > Net Income 65.5m |
| Net Debt (-54.0m) to EBITDA (135.9m): -0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.3m) vs 12m ago -0.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.58% > 18% (prev 47.31%; Δ 5.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.03% > 50% (prev 54.84%; Δ 4.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 120.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 226.5m - Total Current Liabilities 39.5m) / Total Assets 562.5m |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -11.4m / Total Assets 562.5m) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 120.1m / Avg Total Assets 475.8m) |
| D: 1.23 (Book Value of Equity 293.9m / Total Liabilities 238.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.10 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 7.74m/9.47m, Revenue 280.9m/213.4m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 47.31% / 52.58%) |
| AQI: 81.69 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 280.9m / 213.4m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 65.5m - CFO 82.5m) / TA 562.5m) |
| Beneish M = 44.64 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.73 with a total of 260,922 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.47%, over one month by -5.91%, over three months by +37.70% and over the past year by -30.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.10 (which is 11.1% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Caledonia Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMCL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.9 | 84.9% |
P/E Trailing = 6.8052
P/E Forward = 9.5057
P/S = 1.6898
P/B = 1.7738
Revenue TTM = 280.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 120.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 135.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 108.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 117.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 935k
Net Debt = -54.0m USD (calculated: Debt 117.8m - CCE 171.8m)
Enterprise Value = 405.2m USD (459.2m + Debt 117.8m - CCE 171.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.23 (Ebit TTM 120.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m)
EV/FCF = 7.75x (Enterprise Value 405.2m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
FCF Yield = 12.90% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Enterprise Value 405.2m)
FCF Margin = 18.62% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Net Margin = 23.31% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Gross Margin = 52.58% ((Revenue TTM 280.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 133.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.41% (prev 48.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 405.2m / Total Assets 562.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.92% (Interest Expense 6.97m / Debt 117.8m)
Taxrate = 32.93% (40.1m / 121.8m)
NOPAT = 80.5m (EBIT 120.1m * (1 - 32.93%))
Current Ratio = 5.73 (Total Current Assets 226.5m / Total Current Liabilities 39.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 117.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 293.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.40 (Net Debt -54.0m / EBITDA 135.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.03 (Net Debt -54.0m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 269.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.76% (Net Income 65.5m / Total Assets 562.5m)
RoE = 24.33% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 269.1m)
RoCE = 31.80% (EBIT 120.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 269.1m + L.T.Debt 108.5m))
RoIC = 15.59% (NOPAT 80.5m / Invested Capital 516.6m)
WACC = 8.20% (E(459.2m)/V(577.0m) * Re(9.29%) + D(117.8m)/V(577.0m) * Rd(5.92%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 9.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 57.27 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈40.0m ; Y1≈45.9m ; Y5≈67.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 55.31 (EV 1.02b - Net Debt -54.0m = Equity 1.07b / Shares 19.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.04 | Revenue CAGR: 31.34% | SUE: -0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+34.48% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.01 | Chg30d=+4.16% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+39.5% | GrowthRev=+17.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.57 | Chg30d=-10.48% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+14.0% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)