(CMCL) Caledonia Mining - Overview
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Gold | Exchange: NYSE MKT (USA) | Market Cap: 440m USD | Total Return: 41% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 4.14M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 98.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Choppy
Tailwinds
Confidence
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is a Jersey-based gold producer primarily focused on operations within Zimbabwe. The company’s core asset is a 64% controlling interest in the Blanket Mine, complemented by a portfolio of 100% owned exploration and development projects including Maligreen, Bilboes, and Motapa. Incorporated in 1992, the firm shifted its corporate structure in 2016 to its current iteration as a public limited company.
The company operates within the gold mining sector, a capital-intensive industry where profitability is heavily influenced by global spot prices and the jurisdictional stability of host nations. Caledonia’s business model relies on a mix of consistent production from established shafts and the long-term appreciation of brownfield exploration assets. For a deeper look into the companys valuation metrics, you can explore the data on ValueRay.
- Gold production volume at Blanket Mine dictates primary quarterly revenue and cash flow
- Global gold price fluctuations directly impact profit margins and dividend payout capacity
- Zimbabwe political and regulatory instability poses significant jurisdictional and currency conversion risks
- Development progress at Bilboes project determines long term production growth and valuation
- All-in sustaining costs remain sensitive to local electricity supply and inflationary pressures
| Net Income: 62.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 64.94% < 20% (prev 11.83%; Δ 53.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 81.3m > Net Income 62.2m |
| Net Debt (-53.2m) to EBITDA (147.3m): -0.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.8m) vs 12m ago 3.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.90% > 18% (prev 0.45%; Δ 5.14k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.80% > 50% (prev 54.50%; Δ 5.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 21.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 147.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.26m) |
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 226.7m - Total Current Liabilities 48.6m) / Total Assets 553.2m |
| B: -0.06 (Retained Earnings -32.4m / Total Assets 553.2m) |
| C: 0.29 (EBIT TTM 131.6m / Avg Total Assets 458.4m) |
| D: 1.07 (Book Value of Equity 271.9m / Total Liabilities 253.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.97 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.38 (Receivables 9.11m/17.5m, Revenue 274.2m/198.2m) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 51.90% / 45.45%) |
| AQI: 115.9 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.38 (Revenue 274.2m / 198.2m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 62.2m - CFO 81.3m) / TA 553.2m) |
| Beneish M = 64.74 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.71 with a total of 248,606 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.90%,
over one month by +4.40%,
over three months by -24.39% and
over the past year by +41.03%.
Caledonia Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMCL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 80.2% |
P/E Trailing = 7.1698
P/E Forward = 7.5358
P/S = 1.6836
P/B = 1.6198
Revenue TTM = 274.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 131.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 147.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 103.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 116.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 995k
Net Debt = -53.2m USD (calculated: Debt 116.8m - CCE 170.0m)
Enterprise Value = 387.2m USD (440.3m + Debt 116.8m - CCE 170.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 21.02 (Ebit TTM 131.6m / Interest Expense TTM 6.26m)
EV/FCF = 8.00x (Enterprise Value 387.2m / FCF TTM 48.4m)
FCF Yield = 12.50% (FCF TTM 48.4m / Enterprise Value 387.2m)
FCF Margin = 17.65% (FCF TTM 48.4m / Revenue TTM 274.2m)
Net Margin = 22.67% (Net Income TTM 62.2m / Revenue TTM 274.2m)
Gross Margin = 51.90% ((Revenue TTM 274.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 131.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.32% (prev 55.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 387.2m / Total Assets 553.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.36% (Interest Expense 6.26m / Debt 116.8m)
Taxrate = 30.71% (8.38m / 27.3m)
NOPAT = 91.2m (EBIT 131.6m * (1 - 30.71%))
Current Ratio = 4.66 (Total Current Assets 226.7m / Total Current Liabilities 48.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 116.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 271.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.36 (Net Debt -53.2m / EBITDA 147.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.10 (Net Debt -53.2m / FCF TTM 48.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.56% (Net Income 62.2m / Total Assets 553.2m)
RoE = 21.61% (Net Income TTM 62.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 287.6m)
RoCE = 33.63% (EBIT 131.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 287.6m + L.T.Debt 103.6m))
RoIC = 26.35% (NOPAT 91.2m / Invested Capital 346.1m)
WACC = 8.30% (E(440.3m)/V(557.2m) * Re(9.52%) + D(116.8m)/V(557.2m) * Rd(5.36%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 9.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 19.38 | Cagr: 2.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈35.8m ; Y1≈41.1m ; Y5≈60.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.84 (EV 909.4m - Net Debt -53.2m = Equity 962.5m / Shares 19.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 98.78 | Revenue CAGR: 30.48% | SUE: -0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+14.89% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+16.07% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.81 | Chg30d=-8.64% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+67.4% | GrowthRev=+23.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%