(IMO) Imperial Oil - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products, Petrochemicals, Polyethylene
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 |
| Alpha | 20.91 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.411 |
| Beta | 0.741 |
| Beta Downside | 0.944 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.95% |
| Mean DD | 7.61% |
| Median DD | 7.13% |
Description: IMO Imperial Oil September 29, 2025
Imperial Oil Ltd (NYSE MKT:IMO) is a Canadian-based, integrated oil and gas company operating as a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil. It is organized into three business segments – Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals – and trades under the Esso and Mobil brands.
**Upstream**: The segment conducts exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude, and bitumen across Western Canada. Based on the 2023 annual report, Imperial Oil’s average daily production was roughly 200,000 boe/d, giving it a reserve replacement ratio of 1.2× (assumption: the figure reflects reported proved plus probable reserves). The segment’s earnings are highly sensitive to the West Canadian Select (WCS) price spread versus WTI, which has averaged a $15-$20 per-barrel discount in 2023.
**Downstream**: Imperial Oil owns and operates two refineries (Edmonton ≈ 115,000 bbl/d and Sarnia ≈ 230,000 bbl/d) for a combined capacity of about 345,000 bbl/d. It transports crude and refined products via owned pipelines and third-party carriers, and distributes fuel, asphalt, and lubricants through a network of terminals and retail stations. The downstream segment contributed roughly 55 % of total revenue in 2023, and its operating margin is closely tied to the crack spread, which widened to ~ $25 per barrel in the second half of 2023.
**Chemicals**: The chemical arm manufactures aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, polyethylene resins, and refinery-grade propylene. While a smaller slice of the business (≈ 5 % of revenue), it benefits from stable demand in North American packaging and construction sectors, and its EBITDA margin has hovered near 12 % in recent quarters.
Key economic drivers for Imperial Oil include Canadian-U.S. price differentials, pipeline capacity constraints (e.g., Trans Mountain expansion), carbon-pricing mechanisms in Alberta, and broader macro trends such as global oil demand recovery and petrochemical demand growth driven by e-commerce packaging.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of IMO that incorporates these drivers and recent KPI trends, you may find ValueRay’s analytical toolkit useful.
IMO Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 51,287m |
| Sub-Industry | Integrated Oil & Gas |
| IPO / Inception | 1986-07-16 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 15.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.22 of 5 |
IMO Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.56% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 15.52% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 27.35% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.4% |
IMO Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 23.53% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.03 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.09 |
| Current Volume | 305.2k |
| Average Volume | 493.1k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (4.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.80b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.07pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 4.91% (prev 5.87%; Δ -0.95pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.58b > Net Income 4.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.70b) to EBITDA (7.66b) ratio: 0.22 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.47 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (505.1m) change vs 12m ago -5.04% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 15.80% (prev 14.59%; Δ 1.21pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 127.1% (prev 115.9%; Δ 11.18pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 325.8 (EBITDA TTM 7.66b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.47
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 7.15b - Total Current Liabilities 4.86b) / Total Assets 30.85b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 16.48b / Total Assets 30.85b |
| (C) 0.14 = EBIT TTM 5.21b / Avg Total Assets 36.69b |
| (D) 1.23 = Book Value of Equity 17.01b / Total Liabilities 13.84b |
| Total Rating: 4.47 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 69.01
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.46% |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.18 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.22 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.11)% |
| 7. RoE 17.80% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -37.98% |
| 9. EPS Trend -30.20% |
What is the price of IMO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.67%, over one month by +14.11%, over three months by +15.92% and over the past year by +29.58%.
Is IMO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the IMO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 65.8 | -32.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 65.8 | -32.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 123.1 | 26.5% |
IMO Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 18.0376
P/E Forward = 19.1205
P/S = 1.0603
P/B = 2.9035
P/EG = 0.85
Beta = 0.987
Revenue TTM = 46.62b CAD
EBIT TTM = 5.21b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 7.66b CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.45b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.1m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.03b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.70b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 74.02b CAD (72.32b + Debt 3.03b - CCE 1.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 325.8 (Ebit TTM 5.21b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.46% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Enterprise Value 74.02b)
FCF Margin = 10.26% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Revenue TTM 46.62b)
Net Margin = 8.58% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Revenue TTM 46.62b)
Gross Margin = 15.80% ((Revenue TTM 46.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 39.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.45% (prev 13.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.40 (Enterprise Value 74.02b / Total Assets 30.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.26% (Interest Expense 8.00m / Debt 3.03b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (162.0m / 701.0m)
NOPAT = 4.01b (EBIT 5.21b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 7.15b / Total Current Liabilities 4.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.18 (Debt 3.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (Net Debt 1.70b / EBITDA 7.66b)
Debt / FCF = 0.35 (Net Debt 1.70b / FCF TTM 4.78b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.97% (Net Income 4.00b / Total Assets 30.85b)
RoE = 17.80% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.47b)
RoCE = 20.11% (EBIT 5.21b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.47b + L.T.Debt 3.45b))
RoIC = 14.52% (NOPAT 4.01b / Invested Capital 27.61b)
WACC = 8.41% (E(72.32b)/V(75.35b) * Re(8.75%) + D(3.03b)/V(75.35b) * Rd(0.26%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.78% ; FCFE base≈4.31b ; Y1≈4.60b ; Y5≈5.59b
Fair Price DCF = 172.4 (DCF Value 85.67b / Shares Outstanding 496.9m; 5y FCF grow 7.74% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -30.20 | EPS CAGR: -30.06% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -37.98 | Revenue CAGR: -5.07% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for IMO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle