(IMO) Imperial Oil - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Synthetic Oil, Bitumen, Polyethylene
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.28% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 11.73% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 27.35% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 |
| Alpha | 19.22 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.532 |
| Beta | 0.741 |
| Beta Downside | 0.938 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.95% |
| Mean DD | 6.70% |
| Median DD | 6.19% |
Description: IMO Imperial Oil December 03, 2025
Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) is a fully integrated Canadian energy company operating upstream, downstream, and chemical segments. The upstream unit focuses on exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude, and bitumen, while the downstream arm handles refining, blending, and distribution of petroleum products-including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants-under the Esso and Mobil brands. The chemical segment produces aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, polyethylene resins, and refinery-grade propylene.
Key operating metrics (2023): upstream net production averaged ~300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a 15% year-over-year increase in bitumen output driven by higher oil-sand lease extensions; downstream capacity stands at ~250,000 barrels per day of refining throughput, anchored by the Montreal refinery, which now runs at a 92% utilization rate; the chemical division contributed ~3% of total revenue, benefitting from rising demand for polyethylene in North American packaging. The company paid a dividend of $0.78 per share, yielding roughly 5% at current price levels, and maintained a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×, indicating moderate leverage.
Sector drivers that materially affect IMO include Canadian crude price differentials (the “differential” to WTI), regulatory changes to carbon pricing, and the pace of capital allocation to oil-sand projects versus renewable investments. A sustained narrowing of the Canada-WTI spread would boost upstream margins, while tighter environmental standards could increase downstream compliance costs.
For a deeper quantitative view, explore ValueRay’s detailed IMO model to assess risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (4.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.77b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.07pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 4.96% (prev 5.87%; Δ -0.91pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.58b > Net Income 4.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.70b) to EBITDA (7.67b) ratio: 0.22 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.47 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (505.1m) change vs 12m ago -5.04% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 13.95% (prev 14.58%; Δ -0.63pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 126.0% (prev 115.9%; Δ 10.15pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 325.8 (EBITDA TTM 7.67b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.47
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 7.15b - Total Current Liabilities 4.86b) / Total Assets 30.85b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 16.48b / Total Assets 30.85b |
| (C) 0.14 = EBIT TTM 5.22b / Avg Total Assets 36.69b |
| (D) 1.23 = Book Value of Equity 17.01b / Total Liabilities 13.84b |
| Total Rating: 4.47 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.45
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.75% |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.34% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.18 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.22 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.14)% |
| 7. RoE 17.79% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -47.79% |
| 9. EPS Trend -20.73% |
What is the price of IMO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.73%, over one month by -4.62%, over three months by +4.22% and over the past year by +28.83%.
Is IMO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the IMO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 65.8 | -27.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 65.8 | -27.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 116.6 | 28.6% |
IMO Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 17.5045
P/E Forward = 19.1571
P/S = 1.0327
P/B = 2.9109
P/EG = 0.85
Beta = 0.987
Revenue TTM = 46.24b CAD
EBIT TTM = 5.22b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 7.67b CAD
Long Term Debt = 3.45b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.1m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.03b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.70b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 70.88b CAD (69.19b + Debt 3.03b - CCE 1.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 325.8 (Ebit TTM 5.22b / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.75% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Enterprise Value 70.88b)
FCF Margin = 10.34% (FCF TTM 4.78b / Revenue TTM 46.24b)
Net Margin = 8.65% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Revenue TTM 46.24b)
Gross Margin = 13.95% ((Revenue TTM 46.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 39.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.20% (prev 13.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.30 (Enterprise Value 70.88b / Total Assets 30.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.26% (Interest Expense 8.01m / Debt 3.03b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (162.2m / 702.0m)
NOPAT = 4.01b (EBIT 5.22b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 7.15b / Total Current Liabilities 4.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.18 (Debt 3.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 17.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (Net Debt 1.70b / EBITDA 7.67b)
Debt / FCF = 0.35 (Net Debt 1.70b / FCF TTM 4.78b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.96% (Net Income 4.00b / Total Assets 30.85b)
RoE = 17.79% (Net Income TTM 4.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.47b)
RoCE = 20.13% (EBIT 5.22b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.47b + L.T.Debt 3.45b))
RoIC = 14.53% (NOPAT 4.01b / Invested Capital 27.61b)
WACC = 8.39% (E(69.19b)/V(72.22b) * Re(8.75%) + D(3.03b)/V(72.22b) * Rd(0.26%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.78% ; FCFE base≈4.31b ; Y1≈4.60b ; Y5≈5.59b
Fair Price DCF = 172.4 (DCF Value 85.67b / Shares Outstanding 496.9m; 5y FCF grow 7.74% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -20.73 | EPS CAGR: -6.01% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -47.79 | Revenue CAGR: -0.52% | SUE: -0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=+0.044 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.58 | Chg30d=+0.116 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=-5.3% | Growth Revenue=+9.3%
Additional Sources for IMO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle