(NAK) Northern Dynasty Minerals - Ratings and Ratios
Copper, Gold, Molybdenum, Silver, Rhenium
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 88.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -24.04% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.59 |
| Alpha | 220.27 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.636 |
| Beta | 1.475 |
| Beta Downside | 0.834 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.83% |
| Mean DD | 20.04% |
| Median DD | 17.87% |
Description: NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals December 25, 2025
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NYSE MKT: NAK) is a Vancouver-based explorer focused on a single, large-scale project in southwest Alaska. The company holds 100 % of the Pebble Copper-Gold-Molybdenum-Silver-Rhenium project, which comprises 1,840 mineral claims covering roughly 274 sq mi. Its portfolio is limited to this asset, and the firm’s historical name was Northern Dynasty Explorations until the 1997 re-branding.
Key metrics (as of the most recent 2023 Form 10-K) show a cash balance of about US$ 150 million and negligible long-term debt, reflecting a capital-light balance sheet but also a reliance on external financing to advance Pebble toward a final-eis. The disclosed resource estimate (NI 43-101) indicates roughly 1.5 billion tonnes of copper-equivalent material, with copper accounting for ~70 % of the projected value. Pebble’s economics are highly sensitive to copper price movements; a 10 % rise in copper (currently ~US$ 4.00 lb) can improve the net present value (NPV) by roughly US$ 300 million under baseline cost assumptions. The project’s permitting timeline remains a material risk: the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ 2024 decision on the Clean Water Act Section 404(c) waiver will largely determine whether construction can commence.
From a sector perspective, global copper demand is expected to grow 2–3 % annually through 2030, driven by renewable-energy infrastructure and electric-vehicle production, which underpins the long-term upside for large, low-cost deposits like Pebble. However, the projects remote Alaskan location introduces higher logistical and labor costs, and environmental opposition adds a non-trivial probability of delay or cancellation.
If you want a data-driven, quantitative snapshot of NAK’s valuation assumptions, the ValueRay platform offers a concise dashboard worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| error: Net Income check cannot be calculated (needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.31pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| error: NWC/Revenue cannot be calculated (needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO -20.5m > Net Income -79.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 0.68 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (550.0m) change vs 12m ago 2.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| error: Gross Margin (current vs previous) cannot be calculated (needs Total Revenue and Cost Of Revenue) |
| Asset Turnover 0.0% (prev 0.0%; Δ 0.0pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -92.72 (EBITDA TTM -78.5m / Interest Expense TTM 848.9k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -24.49
| (A) -0.16 = (Total Current Assets 45.5m - Total Current Liabilities 66.5m) / Total Assets 127.3m |
| (B) -6.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -793.1m / Total Assets 127.3m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -6.23 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.60 = EBIT TTM -78.7m / Avg Total Assets 130.8m |
| (D) 0.90 = Book Value of Equity 60.4m / Total Liabilities 66.9m |
| Total Rating: -24.49 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.75
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.41% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.04 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.54 |
| 7. RoE -125.2% |
| 8. Revenue Trend data missing |
| 9. EPS Trend 3.58% |
What is the price of NAK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.55%, over one month by +6.56%, over three months by +59.84% and over the past year by +186.76%.
Is NAK a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NAK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.5 | 28.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.5 | 28.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2.3 | 18.5% |
NAK Fundamental Data Overview January 02, 2026
P/B = 24.6848
Beta = 0.372
Revenue TTM = 0.0 CAD
EBIT TTM = -78.7m CAD
EBITDA TTM = -78.5m CAD
Long Term Debt = 407.0k CAD (from longTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.57m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.57m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -42.3m CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.45b CAD (1.49b + Debt 2.57m - CCE 44.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -92.72 (Ebit TTM -78.7m / Interest Expense TTM 848.9k)
FCF Yield = -1.41% (FCF TTM -20.5m / Enterprise Value 1.45b)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 111.8k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.40 (Enterprise Value 1.45b / Total Assets 127.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.96% (Interest Expense 152.9k / Debt 2.57m)
Taxrate = -1.69% (negative due to tax credits) (132.0k / -7.81m)
NOPAT = -80.0m (EBIT -78.7m * (1 - -1.69%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.68 (Total Current Assets 45.5m / Total Current Liabilities 66.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 2.57m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 60.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.54 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -42.3m / EBITDA -78.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.07 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -42.3m / FCF TTM -20.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 63.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -62.56% (Net Income -79.6m / Total Assets 127.3m)
RoE = -125.2% (Net Income TTM -79.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 63.6m)
RoCE = -123.0% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -78.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 63.6m + L.T.Debt 407.0k))
RoIC = -120.6% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -80.0m / Invested Capital 66.4m)
WACC = 11.44% (E(1.49b)/V(1.50b) * Re(11.45%) + D(2.57m)/V(1.50b) * Rd(5.96%) * (1-Tc(-0.02)))
Discount Rate = 11.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.72%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -20.5m)
EPS Correlation: 3.58 | EPS CAGR: 10.94% | SUE: 1.39 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.04 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+50.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for NAK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle