(NAK) Northern Dynasty Minerals - Ratings and Ratios
Copper, Gold, Molybdenum, Silver, Rhenium
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 98.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -24.29% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.54 |
| Alpha | 191.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.692 |
| Beta | 1.519 |
| Beta Downside | 1.086 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.83% |
| Mean DD | 19.40% |
| Median DD | 17.40% |
Description: NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals October 22, 2025
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NYSE MKT: NAK) is a Vancouver-based explorer focused on a single, large-scale project – the Pebble Copper-Gold-Molybdenum-Silver-Rhenium deposit in southwest Alaska. The company holds a 100 % interest in 1,840 mineral claims covering roughly 274 square miles, targeting a suite of metals that includes copper, gold, molybdenum, silver and the rare metal rhenium.
According to the most recent technical update (Q2 2024), Pebble’s indicated resources total about 1.2 billion tonnes grading 0.5 % copper, 5.3 million ounces of gold, 0.2 % molybdenum, 5.5 % silver and 0.2 % rhenium – a portfolio that could deliver roughly 1.5 % of global copper supply if fully developed. The project’s economics are highly sensitive to copper prices; a $4.00/lb benchmark yields an after-tax NPV of ~$5 billion, while a $3.00/lb scenario cuts NPV by more than 40 %.
Key sector drivers bolster the upside: accelerating demand for copper from renewable-energy infrastructure and electric-vehicle production, tightening global supply due to mine closures, and a modest but growing market for rhenium in aerospace super-alloys. Conversely, Pebble remains in a protracted permitting phase, with the U.S. EPA’s final decision on the mine’s water-quality impacts still pending, representing a material execution risk.
For a deeper dive into NAK’s valuation metrics and peer comparisons, you might find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
NAK Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 1,016m |
| Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| IPO / Inception | 2002-02-12 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 191% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
NAK Dividends
Currently no dividends paidNAK Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 82.93% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.22 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 4.27 |
| Current Volume | 9207.8k |
| Average Volume | 8345.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| error: Net Income check cannot be calculated (needs Net Income TTM and Revenue TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.16pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| error: NWC/Revenue cannot be calculated (needs Current Assets/Liabilities and Revenue current+prev) |
| CFO/TA -0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO -18.6m > Net Income -79.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 0.32 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (539.2m) change vs 12m ago 0.28% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| error: Gross Margin (current vs previous) cannot be calculated (needs Total Revenue and Cost Of Revenue) |
| Asset Turnover 0.0% (prev 0.0%; Δ 0.0pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -86.94 (EBITDA TTM -78.3m / Interest Expense TTM 903.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -27.39
| (A) -0.46 = (Total Current Assets 26.2m - Total Current Liabilities 82.2m) / Total Assets 122.5m |
| (B) -6.41 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -785.2m / Total Assets 122.5m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -6.41 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.60 = EBIT TTM -78.5m / Avg Total Assets 131.2m |
| (D) 0.48 = Book Value of Equity 40.0m / Total Liabilities 82.6m |
| Total Rating: -27.39 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.95
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.09 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.28 |
| 7. RoE -103.7% |
| 8. Revenue Trend data missing |
| 9. EPS Trend -16.43% |
What is the price of NAK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -13.29%, over one month by -26.83%, over three months by +76.47% and over the past year by +225.73%.
Is NAK a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NAK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.5 | 66% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.5 | 66% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.8 | 22% |
NAK Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
P/B = 33.4913
Beta = 0.422
Revenue TTM = 0.0 CAD
EBIT TTM = -78.5m CAD
EBITDA TTM = -78.3m CAD
Long Term Debt = 507.0k CAD (from longTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 2.98m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.42m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -21.7m CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.40b CAD (1.43b + Debt 3.42m - CCE 25.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -86.94 (Ebit TTM -78.5m / Interest Expense TTM 903.0k)
FCF Yield = -1.33% (FCF TTM -18.6m / Enterprise Value 1.40b)
FCF Margin = unknown (Revenue TTM is 0 or missing)
Net Margin = unknown
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 0.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 108.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.46 (Enterprise Value 1.40b / Total Assets 122.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.93% (Interest Expense 237.0k / Debt 3.42m)
Taxrate = -0.18% (negative due to tax credits) (65.0k / -36.1m)
NOPAT = -78.6m (EBIT -78.5m * (1 - -0.18%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 26.2m / Total Current Liabilities 82.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 3.42m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.28 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -21.7m / EBITDA -78.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.17 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -21.7m / FCF TTM -18.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 76.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -64.85% (Net Income -79.5m / Total Assets 122.5m)
RoE = -103.7% (Net Income TTM -79.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 76.6m)
RoCE = -101.8% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -78.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 76.6m + L.T.Debt 507.0k))
RoIC = -99.12% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -78.6m / Invested Capital 79.3m)
WACC = 11.60% (E(1.43b)/V(1.43b) * Re(11.61%) + D(3.42m)/V(1.43b) * Rd(6.93%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 11.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.75%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.6m)
EPS Correlation: -16.43 | EPS CAGR: -3.76% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for NAK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle