(NHC) National HealthCare - Ratings and Ratios
Skilled Nursing, Assisted Living, Homecare, Hospice
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.72% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.86% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 43.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.72% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.43 |
| Alpha | 1.71 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.483 |
| Beta | 0.521 |
| Beta Downside | 0.381 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.40% |
| Mean DD | 10.09% |
| Median DD | 6.90% |
Description: NHC National HealthCare November 13, 2025
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) operates a diversified portfolio of post-acute and long-term care services, split between Inpatient (skilled nursing, memory-care, assisted/independent living, behavioral health) and Homecare/Hospice segments. Its facilities deliver licensed therapy, nutrition, social, and housekeeping services, while also running home-based medical, hospice, pharmacy, and managed-care insurance operations. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, NHC is listed on the NYSE MKT under the Health Care Facilities sub-industry.
Key performance indicators that analysts watch include an average skilled-nursing occupancy of roughly 85% (slightly above the industry median of 81%), a FY2023 revenue growth of ~3% YoY driven largely by expanding home-care contracts, and a cash-flow conversion rate near 80% of net income, which supports its property-lease and acquisition strategy. The company’s earnings are sensitive to Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement trends and to the broader demographic shift toward an aging U.S. population, which is projected to increase demand for both institutional and home-based senior care services.
Given the sector’s ongoing transition toward value-based care and the labor-shortage pressures in nursing, NHC’s diversified service model may provide a buffer against single-segment volatility, but its profitability remains exposed to regulatory changes and staffing costs. For a deeper dive into how these dynamics are reflected in NHC’s valuation metrics, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income (101.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 90.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.63pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.07% (prev 16.09%; Δ -2.01pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 181.1m > Net Income 101.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-2.56m) to EBITDA (188.9m) ratio: -0.01 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (15.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.02% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 38.55% (prev 37.93%; Δ 0.62pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 95.74% (prev 78.68%; Δ 17.06pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 18.26 (EBITDA TTM 188.9m / Interest Expense TTM 7.90m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.87
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 493.5m - Total Current Liabilities 282.4m) / Total Assets 1.57b |
| (B) 0.52 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 818.1m / Total Assets 1.57b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 144.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.57b |
| (D) 1.59 = Book Value of Equity 817.1m / Total Liabilities 513.9m |
| Total Rating: 4.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.54
| 1. Piotroski 9.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.18% |
| 3. FCF Margin 9.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.01 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.13)% |
| 7. RoE 9.98% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 91.98% |
| 9. EPS Trend 62.48% |
What is the price of NHC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.91%, over one month by +13.43%, over three months by +22.64% and over the past year by +10.34%.
Is NHC a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the NHC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6.2 | -95.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6.2 | -95.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 169.4 | 23.4% |
NHC Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.5401
P/S = 1.366
P/B = 1.922
Beta = 0.675
Revenue TTM = 1.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 144.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 188.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 65.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 128.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.56m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.80b USD (1.96b + Debt 128.1m - CCE 297.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.26 (Ebit TTM 144.3m / Interest Expense TTM 7.90m)
FCF Yield = 8.18% (FCF TTM 146.9m / Enterprise Value 1.80b)
FCF Margin = 9.79% (FCF TTM 146.9m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Net Margin = 6.75% (Net Income TTM 101.2m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Gross Margin = 38.55% ((Revenue TTM 1.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 922.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.06% (prev 39.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 1.80b / Total Assets 1.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.14% (Interest Expense 1.46m / Debt 128.1m)
Taxrate = 24.63% (13.4m / 54.4m)
NOPAT = 108.7m (EBIT 144.3m * (1 - 24.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 493.5m / Total Current Liabilities 282.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 128.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.01 (Net Debt -2.56m / EBITDA 188.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -2.56m / FCF TTM 146.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.44% (Net Income 101.2m / Total Assets 1.57b)
RoE = 9.98% (Net Income TTM 101.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 13.35% (EBIT 144.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 65.6m))
RoIC = 9.63% (NOPAT 108.7m / Invested Capital 1.13b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(1.96b)/V(2.09b) * Re(7.94%) + D(128.1m)/V(2.09b) * Rd(1.14%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.64% ; FCFE base≈117.6m ; Y1≈105.8m ; Y5≈90.8m
Fair Price DCF = 105.7 (DCF Value 1.64b / Shares Outstanding 15.5m; 5y FCF grow -12.46% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 62.48 | EPS CAGR: 27.07% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.98 | Revenue CAGR: 9.92% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for NHC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle