(NHC) National HealthCare - Ratings and Ratios
Skilled Nursing, Assisted Living, Independent Living, Homecare, Hospice
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.20% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.64% |
| Payout Consistency | 72.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.6% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.27 |
| Alpha | 31.58 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.530 |
| Beta | 0.465 |
| Beta Downside | 0.236 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.40% |
| Mean DD | 10.00% |
| Median DD | 6.87% |
Description: NHC National HealthCare January 16, 2026
National HealthCare Corporation (NYSE MKT:NHC) operates a diversified portfolio of post-acute and senior-living services through two primary segments: Inpatient (skilled nursing, memory-care, sub-acute, assisted-living, independent-living, and behavioral-health facilities) and Homecare & Hospice (home health, hospice, pharmacy, and managed-care solutions). The company also generates ancillary revenue by leasing facilities and providing management, accounting, and financial services. Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Murfreesboro, Tennessee, NHC serves patients recovering from acute events (e.g., strokes, heart attacks) as well as long-term and end-of-life care needs.
Key quantitative drivers (based on FY 2023 filings and industry reports) include: • Average occupancy across its skilled-nursing and assisted-living properties was ~84%, slightly above the industry median of 81%, indicating modest pricing power. • Revenue grew ~5% YoY, driven primarily by higher case-mix reimbursement and expansion of home-health services, while operating margins remained constrained near 6% due to labor cost inflation. • Macro-level demand is underpinned by the U.S. “old-age” dependency ratio, projected to rise from 27% in 2024 to >35% by 2035, boosting long-term-care utilization. Assumption: these figures reflect publicly disclosed data and may be revised in subsequent quarterly updates.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of NHC’s valuation dynamics and peer comparison, you may find ValueRay’s platform useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income (101.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 90.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.63pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.07% (prev 16.09%; Δ -2.01pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 181.1m > Net Income 101.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-2.56m) to EBITDA (188.9m) ratio: -0.01 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.75 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (15.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.02% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 38.55% (prev 37.93%; Δ 0.62pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 95.74% (prev 78.68%; Δ 17.06pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 18.26 (EBITDA TTM 188.9m / Interest Expense TTM 7.90m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.87
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 493.5m - Total Current Liabilities 282.4m) / Total Assets 1.57b |
| (B) 0.52 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 818.1m / Total Assets 1.57b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 144.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.57b |
| (D) 1.59 = Book Value of Equity 817.1m / Total Liabilities 513.9m |
| Total Rating: 4.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.58
| 1. Piotroski 9.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.49% |
| 3. FCF Margin 9.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.01 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.43)% |
| 7. RoE 9.98% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 92.12% |
| 9. EPS Trend 62.48% |
What is the price of NHC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.70%, over one month by -0.82%, over three months by +13.05% and over the past year by +41.94%.
Is NHC a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the NHC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6.2 | -95.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6.2 | -95.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 175.8 | 28.2% |
NHC Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026
P/S = 1.4373
P/B = 2.0483
Revenue TTM = 1.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 144.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 188.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 65.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 128.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.56m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.96b USD (1.96b + Debt 128.1m - CCE 130.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.26 (Ebit TTM 144.3m / Interest Expense TTM 7.90m)
EV/FCF = 13.36x (Enterprise Value 1.96b / FCF TTM 146.9m)
FCF Yield = 7.49% (FCF TTM 146.9m / Enterprise Value 1.96b)
FCF Margin = 9.79% (FCF TTM 146.9m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Net Margin = 6.75% (Net Income TTM 101.2m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Gross Margin = 38.55% ((Revenue TTM 1.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 922.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.06% (prev 39.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 1.96b / Total Assets 1.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.14% (Interest Expense 1.46m / Debt 128.1m)
Taxrate = 24.63% (13.4m / 54.4m)
NOPAT = 108.7m (EBIT 144.3m * (1 - 24.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 493.5m / Total Current Liabilities 282.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 128.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.01 (Net Debt -2.56m / EBITDA 188.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -2.56m / FCF TTM 146.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.46% (Net Income 101.2m / Total Assets 1.57b)
RoE = 9.98% (Net Income TTM 101.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 13.35% (EBIT 144.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 65.6m))
RoIC = 9.63% (NOPAT 108.7m / Invested Capital 1.13b)
WACC = 7.21% (E(1.96b)/V(2.09b) * Re(7.62%) + D(128.1m)/V(2.09b) * Rd(1.14%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.61% ; FCFF base≈117.6m ; Y1≈105.7m ; Y5≈90.6m
Fair Price DCF = 123.9 (EV 1.92b - Net Debt -2.56m = Equity 1.92b / Shares 15.5m; r=7.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -12.46% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 62.48 | EPS CAGR: 27.07% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.12 | Revenue CAGR: 9.92% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for NHC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle