OBE Stock Analysis: Obsidian Energy | NYSE MKT
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE MKT, USA | Market Cap: 535m USD | 12M Return: 35.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.39M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -61.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (NYSE MKT: OBE) is a Canadian upstream energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas, with operations focused in Western Canada. Its asset base includes a mix of unitized and non-unitized properties producing light oil, heavy oil, and natural gas, providing exposure across multiple hydrocarbon streams. The company was previously known as Penn West Petroleum Ltd. and adopted its current name in June 2017, and it is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta.
As an oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company, Obsidian Energy operates in the upstream segment of the energy value chain, which is focused on locating reserves and bringing them to production rather than midstream transportation or downstream refining. The companys Western Canadian operations place it in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, one of the worlds largest hydrocarbon-bearing regions, where producers typically deal with elevated transportation costs and exposure to heavy-oil price differentials relative to U.S. producers. Listed as a small-cap stock, OBE offers investors direct commodity-price leverage to oil and natural gas markets.
- WTI oil prices swing segment revenue and free cash flow
- WCS heavy oil discount pressures Peace River realized pricing
- Alberta emissions cap regulation increases compliance and operating costs
| Net Income: 1.10m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -19.45% < 20% (prev 21.76%; Δ -41.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 183.1m > Net Income 1.10m |
| Net Debt (282.4m) to EBITDA (216.0m): 1.31 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (67.3m) vs 12m ago -11.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.86% > 18% (prev 2.67%; Δ 51.19% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.53% > 50% (prev 37.41%; Δ -10.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.10 > 6 (EBIT TTM 22.1m / Interest Expense TTM 20.1m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 144.8m - Total Current Liabilities 251.7m) / Total Assets 1.97b |
| B: -0.42 (Retained Earnings -821.5m / Total Assets 1.97b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 22.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.07b) |
| D: 2.21 (Book Value of Equity 1.36b / Total Liabilities 613.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.68 = B |
| DSRI: 1.56 (Receivables 90.5m/86.0m, Revenue 549.6m/813.0m) |
| GMI: 0.05 (GM 2.67% / 53.86%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 0.68 (Revenue 549.6m / 813.0m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.10m - CFO 183.1m) / TA 1.97b) |
| Beneish M = -3.54 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.87 with a total of 270,653 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.20%, over one month by -31.86%, over three months by -16.19% and over the past year by +35.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.50 (which is 17.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Obsidian Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold OBE.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6 | -24% |
Market Cap CAD = 760.4m (535.3m USD * 1.4203 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 801.7
P/E Forward = 7.2359
P/S = 1.0883
P/B = 0.56
Revenue TTM = 549.6m CAD
EBIT TTM = 22.1m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 216.0m CAD
Long Term Debt = 245.3m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.20m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 283.9m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.3m
Net Debt = 282.4m CAD (calculated: Debt 283.9m - CCE 1.50m)
Enterprise Value = 1.04b CAD (760.4m + Debt 283.9m - CCE 1.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.10 (Ebit TTM 22.1m / Interest Expense TTM 20.1m)
EV/FCF = -15.33x (Enterprise Value 1.04b / FCF TTM -68.0m)
FCF Yield = -6.52% (FCF TTM -68.0m / Enterprise Value 1.04b)
FCF Margin = -12.37% (FCF TTM -68.0m / Revenue TTM 549.6m)
Net Margin = 0.20% (Net Income TTM 1.10m / Revenue TTM 549.6m)
Gross Margin = 53.86% ((Revenue TTM 549.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 253.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.90% (prev 45.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 1.04b / Total Assets 1.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.08% (Interest Expense 20.1m / Debt 283.9m)
Taxrate = 45.0% (900k / 2.00m)
NOPAT = 12.2m (EBIT 22.1m * (1 - 45.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.58 (Total Current Assets 144.8m / Total Current Liabilities 251.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 283.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.31 (Net Debt 282.4m / EBITDA 216.0m)
Debt / FCF = -4.15 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 282.4m / FCF TTM -68.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.05% (Net Income 1.10m / Total Assets 1.97b)
RoE = 0.08% (Net Income TTM 1.10m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.39b)
RoCE = 1.35% (EBIT 22.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.39b + L.T.Debt 245.3m))
RoIC = 0.71% (NOPAT 12.2m / Invested Capital 1.72b)
WACC = 8.60% (E(760.4m)/V(1.04b) * Re(10.36%) + D(283.9m)/V(1.04b) * Rd(7.08%) * (1-Tc(0.45)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.39 | Cagr: -8.24%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -68.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -61.73 | Revenue CAGR: -7.40% | SUE: 1.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+900.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+295.0% | GrowthRev=+22.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.25 | Chg30d=+184.81% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+2.3% | GrowthRev=+7.8%