(ALGIL) Groupe Guillin - Ratings and Ratios
Food Packaging, Packaging Machinery, Distribution Equipment
Description: ALGIL Groupe Guillin
Groupe Guillin S.A. is a leading manufacturer and supplier of innovative food packaging solutions, catering to a diverse range of industries, including supermarkets, hypermarkets, commercial catering, retail, and industrial catering. With a strong presence in France and internationally, the company provides a comprehensive portfolio of products, including packaging materials, sealing equipment, and meal distribution systems. Its extensive product range is designed to meet the evolving needs of the food industry, with a focus on quality, sustainability, and customer satisfaction.
As a key player in the Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers sub-industry, Groupe Guillin S.A. has established a strong reputation for delivering high-quality products and services. With a history dating back to 1972, the company has developed a robust infrastructure, with a strong logistics and storage management capability, enabling it to serve its customers efficiently. The companys commitment to innovation and customer-centric approach has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge in the market.
Analyzing the companys technical data, we observe that the stock has been trading in a relatively stable range, with the last price at €28.65, closely aligned with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of €28.67. The 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA are at €27.64 and €26.81, respectively, indicating a positive trend. The Average True Range (ATR) is relatively low at 1.53%, suggesting limited volatility. Based on these technical indicators, we can expect the stock to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching the 52-week high of €29.25.
From a fundamental perspective, Groupe Guillin S.A. appears to be undervalued, with a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.21, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings. The companys Return on Equity (RoE) is impressive at 22.79%, suggesting a strong ability to generate profits. With a market capitalization of €550.93 million, the company has a significant presence in the market. Considering these fundamental factors, we forecast that the companys stock will continue to perform well, driven by its strong financials and growth prospects.
Combining both technical and fundamental analysis, our forecast suggests that Groupe Guillin S.A.s stock will continue to rise, potentially reaching €30.50 in the next 6-12 months, driven by its positive trend, undervaluation, and strong financial performance. However, it is essential to monitor the companys progress and adjust our forecast accordingly.
ALGIL Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 657m |
| Sub-Industry | Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers |
| IPO / Inception |
ALGIL Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 52.4% |
| Fundamental | 85.1% |
| Dividend Rating | 65.4% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -9.57% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
ALGIL Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 3.48% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.11% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 29.67% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.1% |
ALGIL Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 71.5% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 37.3% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 78% |
| CAGR 5y | 12.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD 5y | 0.34 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.21 |
| Alpha | -0.65 |
| Beta | 0.208 |
| Volatility | 26.68% |
| Current Volume | 1.5k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1.5k |
| Stop Loss | 29.3 (-3.1%) |
| Signal | 1.57 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (135.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 105.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.79pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 12.48% (prev 25.42%; Δ -12.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 (>3.0%) and CFO 235.5m > Net Income 135.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (39.8m) to EBITDA (264.0m) ratio: 0.15 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.99 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (18.5m) change vs 12m ago NaN% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 17.05% (prev 9.22%; Δ 7.84pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 186.5% (prev 97.49%; Δ 89.04pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 48.50 (EBITDA TTM 264.0m / Interest Expense TTM 3.75m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.22
| (A) 0.23 = (Total Current Assets 440.3m - Total Current Liabilities 221.3m) / Total Assets 960.8m |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 59.7m / Total Assets 960.8m |
| (C) 0.19 = EBIT TTM 181.7m / Avg Total Assets 940.8m |
| (D) 0.22 = Book Value of Equity 71.2m / Total Liabilities 327.5m |
| Total Rating: 3.22 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 85.09
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt = 3.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 20.00% = 5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.93% = 1.73 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.15 = 2.49 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.36 = 2.40 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC 13.08% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 22.79% = 1.90 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 73.28% = 3.66 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 9.34% = 1.17 |
| 10. EPS Trend 3.43% = 0.09 |
| 11. EPS CAGR 6.51% = 0.65 |
What is the price of ALGIL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.17%, over one month by +2.20%, over three months by +7.32% and over the past year by +5.34%.
Is Groupe Guillin a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ALGIL is around 31.34 EUR . This means that ALGIL is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 3.6%.
Is ALGIL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALGIL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 30.9 | 2.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.1 | 12.8% |
ALGIL Fundamental Data Overview
Market Cap EUR = 561.1m (561.1m EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 47.6m EUR (last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 9.3963
P/S = 0.6444
P/B = 0.8858
Beta = 0.774
Revenue TTM = 1.75b EUR
EBIT TTM = 181.7m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 264.0m EUR
Long Term Debt = 53.2m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 41.6m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 94.8m EUR (Calculated: Short Term 41.6m + Long Term 53.2m)
Net Debt = 39.8m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 608.3m EUR (561.1m + Debt 94.8m - CCE 47.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 48.50 (Ebit TTM 181.7m / Interest Expense TTM 3.75m)
FCF Yield = 20.00% (FCF TTM 121.7m / Enterprise Value 608.3m)
FCF Margin = 6.93% (FCF TTM 121.7m / Revenue TTM 1.75b)
Net Margin = 7.70% (Net Income TTM 135.2m / Revenue TTM 1.75b)
Gross Margin = 17.05% ((Revenue TTM 1.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.46b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.54 (Enterprise Value 608.3m / Book Value Of Equity 71.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 1.19m / Debt 94.8m)
Taxrate = 25.38% (from yearly Income Tax Expense: 20.5m / 80.7m)
NOPAT = 135.6m (EBIT 181.7m * (1 - 25.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.99 (Total Current Assets 440.3m / Total Current Liabilities 221.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 94.8m / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 632.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.36 (Net Debt 39.8m / EBITDA 264.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.78 (Debt 94.8m / FCF TTM 121.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 593.1m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 14.07% (Net Income 135.2m, Total Assets 960.8m )
RoE = 22.79% (Net Income TTM 135.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 593.1m)
RoCE = 28.11% (Ebit 181.7m / (Equity 593.1m + L.T.Debt 53.2m))
RoIC = 19.02% (NOPAT 135.6m / Invested Capital 712.9m)
WACC = 5.93% (E(561.1m)/V(655.9m) * Re(6.78%)) + (D(94.8m)/V(655.9m) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: 30.0 | Cagr: 0.00%
Discount Rate = 6.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + ERP 8.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈91.0m ; Y1≈112.2m ; Y5≈191.4m
Fair Price DCF = 176.1 (DCF Value 3.26b / Shares Outstanding 18.5m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 73.28 | Revenue CAGR: 9.34%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: -41.65
EPS Correlation: 3.43 | EPS CAGR: 6.51%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: 124.3