(ALO) Alstom S.A. - Ratings and Ratios
Trains, Locomotives, Signaling, Services, Components
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 61.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 |
| Alpha | 2.40 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.03 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.514 |
| Beta | 0.240 |
| Beta Downside | 0.337 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 62.07% |
| Mean DD | 26.84% |
| Median DD | 23.42% |
Description: ALO Alstom S.A. November 03, 2025
Alstom S.A. (NASDAQ: ALO) designs, builds and services a full spectrum of rail-transport solutions-from people-movers, light-rail and metros to high-speed trains, locomotives and freight-signaling systems-serving customers across Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.
Beyond rolling stock, the company monetizes recurring revenue through asset-optimization, connectivity, cybersecurity and maintenance services, while also supplying critical components such as bogies, traction converters, and green-traction (e-mobility) equipment. In FY 2024 Alstom reported a €12.3 billion revenue run-rate and a €5 billion order backlog, indicating roughly 40 months of booked work at current execution rates.
Key economic drivers include expanding government infrastructure budgets aimed at decarbonising transport, the EU’s “Fit-for-55” agenda, and rising demand for high-speed and urban rail as cities pursue congestion-reduction and ESG targets. The sector’s growth outlook is further bolstered by the global shift toward electrified freight corridors, where Alstom’s signaling and catenary-free solutions are positioned to capture market share.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of Alstom’s valuation dynamics and scenario modeling, see the detailed research page on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-158.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.17b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.57pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -1.60% (prev -11.83%; Δ 10.23pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.37b > Net Income -158.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.45b) to EBITDA (2.13b) ratio: 0.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (462.0m) change vs 12m ago 13.59% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 12.51% (prev 12.08%; Δ 0.43pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 106.7% (prev 75.15%; Δ 31.59pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.33 (EBITDA TTM 2.13b / Interest Expense TTM 315.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.12
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 18.73b - Total Current Liabilities 19.31b) / Total Assets 34.45b |
| (B) 0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.04b / Total Assets 34.45b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 418.0m / Avg Total Assets 33.83b |
| (D) 0.04 = Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 23.93b |
| Total Rating: 0.12 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 54.45
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.12% |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.34% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.68 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -4.16)% |
| 7. RoE -1.58% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 41.37% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.60% |
What is the price of ALO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.56%, over one month by +6.30%, over three months by +16.00% and over the past year by +9.91%.
Is ALO a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.8 | -2.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 26.2 | 7.7% |
ALO Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 9.93b (9.93b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 37.0517
P/E Forward = 13.986
P/S = 0.5289
P/B = 0.9988
P/EG = 0.685
Beta = 1.23
Revenue TTM = 36.11b EUR
EBIT TTM = 418.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 2.13b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.68b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 459.0m EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.52b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 1.45b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.76b EUR (9.93b + Debt 3.52b - CCE 1.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.33 (Ebit TTM 418.0m / Interest Expense TTM 315.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.12% (FCF TTM 484.5m / Enterprise Value 11.76b)
FCF Margin = 1.34% (FCF TTM 484.5m / Revenue TTM 36.11b)
Net Margin = -0.44% (Net Income TTM -158.0m / Revenue TTM 36.11b)
Gross Margin = 12.51% ((Revenue TTM 36.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 31.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.67% (prev 12.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 11.76b / Total Assets 34.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.16% (Interest Expense 76.0m / Debt 3.52b)
Taxrate = 64.33% (101.0m / 157.0m)
NOPAT = 149.1m (EBIT 418.0m * (1 - 64.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 18.73b / Total Current Liabilities 19.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 3.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.42b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.68 (Net Debt 1.45b / EBITDA 2.13b)
Debt / FCF = 3.00 (Net Debt 1.45b / FCF TTM 484.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.46% (Net Income -158.0m / Total Assets 34.45b)
RoE = -1.58% (Net Income TTM -158.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 9.99b)
RoCE = 3.30% (EBIT 418.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 9.99b + L.T.Debt 2.68b))
RoIC = 1.13% (NOPAT 149.1m / Invested Capital 13.15b)
WACC = 5.29% (E(9.93b)/V(13.45b) * Re(6.90%) + D(3.52b)/V(13.45b) * Rd(2.16%) * (1-Tc(0.64)))
Discount Rate = 6.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.58%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈484.5m ; Y1≈318.1m ; Y5≈145.5m
Fair Price DCF = 6.19 (DCF Value 2.86b / Shares Outstanding 462.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.60 | EPS CAGR: 1.11% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.37 | Revenue CAGR: 24.93% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-03-31): EPS=1.74 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+58.1% | Growth Revenue=+2.6%
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=2.16 | Chg30d=+0.034 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+23.9% | Growth Revenue=+4.9%