(COFA) Coface - Overview
Stock: Credit Insurance, Single Risk Insurance, Debt Collection
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.70% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 25.50% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 26.31% |
| Payout Consistency | 74.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 90.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.47% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 |
| Alpha | 4.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.096 |
| Beta Downside | 0.240 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.79 |
Description: COFA Coface January 13, 2026
Coface SA (ticker COFA) is a French-based credit insurer that, through a network of subsidiaries, sells protection against non-payment of trade receivables to a broad client base-from micro-enterprises to multinational corporations and financial institutions. Its product suite extends beyond traditional credit insurance to single-risk policies, factoring, surety bonds, customs and excise guarantees, and a suite of business-information services delivered via the iCON portal and the Universal Risk Business Assessment (URBA) platform.
The group operates across 7 regions: Western, Northern, and Central-Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific. This geographic diversification buffers Coface against regional credit cycles but also exposes it to heterogeneous sovereign risk environments, a factor that analysts typically model using country-specific default probability adjustments.
Key industry metrics that shape Coface’s outlook include: (1) global trade-goods volume, which has been growing at an average 3-4 % CAGR since 2020 and directly drives demand for credit insurance; (2) the combined ratio for European P&C insurers, currently hovering around 95 % (i.e., underwriting profit margin of ~5 %), providing a benchmark for Coface’s underwriting efficiency; and (3) the credit-risk premium index, which rose 12 % YoY in Q3 2024 as corporate default rates increased amid higher interest rates-a tailwind for premium growth but a pressure point for loss ratios.
Assuming Coface can maintain its current loss-ratio of roughly 1.2 % of insured turnover (consistent with the sector average) while expanding its digital-risk services, the incremental earnings contribution could be in the low-single-digit percentage range of total revenue. However, this projection is sensitive to macro-economic shocks that could elevate sovereign defaults in emerging markets, a scenario that would materially erode profitability.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform offers granular risk metrics and peer comparisons that can help validate these assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 229.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 165.5% < 20% (prev 78.43%; Δ 87.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 202.4m > Net Income 229.6m |
| Net Debt (2.06b) to EBITDA (383.1m): 5.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 8.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (149.3m) vs 12m ago -0.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 91.66% > 18% (prev 0.88%; Δ 9078 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 22.39% > 50% (prev 20.66%; Δ 1.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.75 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 383.1m / Interest Expense TTM 41.5m) |
Altman Z'' 3.36
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 3.38b - Total Current Liabilities 409.1m) / Total Assets 8.17b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 1.23b / Total Assets 8.17b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 280.1m / Avg Total Assets 8.01b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 1.46b / Total Liabilities 6.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.36 = A |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 3.38b/3.24b, Revenue 1.79b/1.62b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 91.66% / 88.04%) |
| AQI: 0.74 (AQ_t 0.58 / AQ_t-1 0.78) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.79b / 1.62b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 229.6m - CFO 202.4m) / TA 8.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of COFA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.93%, over one month by +1.70%, over three months by +11.82% and over the past year by +10.28%.
Is COFA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the COFA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.7 | 9.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.9 | 22.7% |
COFA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 10.1948
P/S = 1.2104
P/B = 1.0731
Revenue TTM = 1.79b EUR
EBIT TTM = 280.1m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 383.1m EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.72b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.24m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.43b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.06b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.40b EUR (2.34b + Debt 2.43b - CCE 375.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.75 (Ebit TTM 280.1m / Interest Expense TTM 41.5m)
EV/FCF = 25.11x (Enterprise Value 4.40b / FCF TTM 175.3m)
FCF Yield = 3.98% (FCF TTM 175.3m / Enterprise Value 4.40b)
FCF Margin = 9.77% (FCF TTM 175.3m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Net Margin = 12.80% (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Gross Margin = 91.66% ((Revenue TTM 1.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 149.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 88.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.54 (Enterprise Value 4.40b / Total Assets 8.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.43% (Interest Expense 10.5m / Debt 2.43b)
Taxrate = 19.92% (13.0m / 65.0m)
NOPAT = 224.3m (EBIT 280.1m * (1 - 19.92%))
Current Ratio = 8.26 (Total Current Assets 3.38b / Total Current Liabilities 409.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 2.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.37 (Net Debt 2.06b / EBITDA 383.1m)
Debt / FCF = 11.74 (Net Debt 2.06b / FCF TTM 175.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.87% (Net Income 229.6m / Total Assets 8.17b)
RoE = 10.58% (Net Income TTM 229.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.17b)
RoCE = 7.20% (EBIT 280.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.17b + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 5.75% (NOPAT 224.3m / Invested Capital 3.90b)
WACC = 3.25% (E(2.34b)/V(4.78b) * Re(6.27%) + D(2.43b)/V(4.78b) * Rd(0.43%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.85% ; FCFF base≈209.9m ; Y1≈157.0m ; Y5≈93.0m
Fair Price DCF = 5.59 (EV 2.89b - Net Debt 2.06b = Equity 833.9m / Shares 149.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -29.83% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -47.63 | EPS CAGR: -16.31% | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 59.85 | Revenue CAGR: 17.26% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.61 | Chg30d=-0.157 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+2.5% | Growth Revenue=+3.4%