COFA Stock Analysis: Coface | PA
Insurance - Reinsurance | PA, France | Market Cap: 2.391m EUR | 12M Return: 9.9% | FR0010667147 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.57M
EPS Trend: -67.2%
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Coface SA, headquartered in Bois-Colombes, France, and founded in 1946, is a global provider of trade credit insurance and related risk management services. The company serves a broad client base including small and medium enterprises, mid-market companies, multinational corporations, and financial institutions across Western Europe, Africa, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific.
Its core offering is trade credit insurance, which protects businesses against the risk of non-payment by commercial buyers. Coface distributes this product through tiered solutions such as TradeLiner and EasyLiner for smaller businesses and GlobaLiner for multinational clients, supported by digital tools including the CofaNet portal, the CofaMove mobile app, the CofaServe API, and the AlyX credit risk management software.
Beyond insurance, Coface provides complementary services including business information reports (such as Urba360 assessments, Full and Snapshot reports, and Credit Opinions), debt collection, factoring, and a wide range of surety bonds covering contract, customs and excise, environmental, and legal obligations. These information and bonding services extend the companys role from pure insurer to integrated trade risk partner.
- Global trade contraction pressures trade credit insurance premium growth
- Combined ratio improves as European corporate insolvency rates normalize
- Higher interest rates lift investment income on insurance reserves
| Net Income: 205.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 273.1% < 20% (prev 276.9%; Δ -3.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 172.4m > Net Income 205.7m |
| Net Debt (-994.9m) to EBITDA (355.2m): -2.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (150.2m) vs 12m ago 0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.74% > 18% (prev 88.68%; Δ -35.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 22.44% > 50% (prev 21.52%; Δ 0.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 315.2m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m) |
| A: 0.60 (Total Current Assets 7.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.00b) / Total Assets 8.47b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 1.18b / Total Assets 8.47b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 315.2m / Avg Total Assets 8.27b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 2.17b / Total Liabilities 6.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.00 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 3.92b/3.60b, Revenue 1.86b/1.74b) |
| GMI: 1.68 (GM 88.68% / 52.74%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.86b / 1.74b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 205.7m - CFO 172.4m) / TA 8.47b) |
| Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 15.90 with a total of 155,901 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.05%, over one month by -0.25%, over three months by -0.93% and over the past year by +9.92%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.50 (which is 2.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Coface has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 11.5036
P/E Forward = 8.6356
P/S = 1.2998
P/B = 1.1696
Revenue TTM = 1.86b EUR
EBIT TTM = 315.2m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 355.2m EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.97b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59m EUR (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 2.15b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 88.8m
Net Debt = -994.9m EUR (calculated: Debt 2.15b - CCE 3.15b)
Enterprise Value = 1.40b EUR (2.39b + Debt 2.15b - CCE 3.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.65 (Ebit TTM 315.2m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m)
EV/FCF = 10.53x (Enterprise Value 1.40b / FCF TTM 132.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.50% (FCF TTM 132.6m / Enterprise Value 1.40b)
FCF Margin = 7.14% (FCF TTM 132.6m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = 11.08% (Net Income TTM 205.7m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 52.74% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 877.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.08% (prev 43.34%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.16 (Enterprise Value 1.40b / Total Assets 8.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.91% (Interest Expense 41.2m / Debt 2.15b)
Taxrate = 24.79% (67.9m / 274.0m)
NOPAT = 237.1m (EBIT 315.2m * (1 - 24.79%))
Current Ratio = 3.53 (Total Current Assets 7.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 2.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.80 (Net Debt -994.9m / EBITDA 355.2m)
Debt / FCF = -7.51 (Net Debt -994.9m / FCF TTM 132.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.49% (Net Income 205.7m / Total Assets 8.47b)
RoE = 9.36% (Net Income TTM 205.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.20b)
RoCE = 7.56% (EBIT 315.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.20b + L.T.Debt 1.97b))
RoIC = 3.72% (NOPAT 237.1m / Invested Capital 6.38b)
WACC = 4.18% (E(2.39b)/V(4.54b) * Re(6.64%) + D(2.15b)/V(4.54b) * Rd(1.91%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.38 | Cagr: 0.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.68% ; FCFF base≈135.6m ; Y1≈130.0m ; Y5≈125.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.85 (EV 1.97b - Net Debt -994.9m = Equity 2.97b / Shares 149.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -5.39% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.18 | EPS CAGR: -5.66% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.31 | Revenue CAGR: 6.23% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.41 | Chg30d=-2.79% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-5.1% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.60 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+13.1% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)