COFA Stock Analysis: Coface | PA
Insurance - Reinsurance | PA, France | Market Cap: 2.395m EUR | 12M Return: 8.4% | FR0010667147 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 2.21M
EPS Trend: -67.2%
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Coface SA (PA: COFA) is a France-headquartered provider of trade credit insurance and related risk management services, founded in 1946 and operating globally. The company serves a broad client base spanning small and medium enterprises, mid-market firms, international corporations, and financial institutions. Trade credit insurance is a specialized segment of the property and casualty insurance market that protects sellers against the risk of non-payment by their commercial buyers, distinguishing Coface from generalist P&C insurers.
The companys product lineup includes multi-tier insurance contracts such as TradeLiner and EasyLiner for SMEs, GlobaLiner for multinationals, and single-risk medium-term cover for commercial and political risks. Beyond insurance, Coface generates revenue from complementary services including business information reports, debt collection, factoring, and a wide range of surety bonds (contract, customs, environmental, and legal bonds), as well as digital tools like CofaNet, Coface Dashboard, CofaMove, CofaServe, and the AlyX credit risk management platform.
Coface also monetizes its proprietary business intelligence through offerings such as Urba360, Full and Snapshot reports, scoring models, Credit Opinions, Portfolio Insights, Selectio, and Economic Insights, which are sold both to insured clients and external users. The group operates across Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region, making it one of a small handful of globally diversified trade credit insurers alongside Euler Hermes (Allianz) and Atradius.
- European corporate insolvencies rise, lifting claims and policy demand
- Higher interest rates boost investment income from premium reserves
- Trade volume slowdown pressures premium growth across European markets
| Net Income: 205.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 273.1% < 20% (prev 276.9%; Δ -3.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 172.4m > Net Income 205.7m |
| Net Debt (-994.9m) to EBITDA (355.2m): -2.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (150.2m) vs 12m ago 0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.74% > 18% (prev 88.68%; Δ -35.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 22.44% > 50% (prev 21.52%; Δ 0.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 315.2m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m) |
| A: 0.60 (Total Current Assets 7.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.00b) / Total Assets 8.47b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 1.18b / Total Assets 8.47b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 315.2m / Avg Total Assets 8.27b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 2.17b / Total Liabilities 6.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.00 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 3.92b/3.60b, Revenue 1.86b/1.74b) |
| GMI: 1.68 (GM 88.68% / 52.74%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.86b / 1.74b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 205.7m - CFO 172.4m) / TA 8.47b) |
| Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of September 01, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 15.85 with a total of 126,986 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.06%, over one month by +0.32%, over three months by +6.59% and over the past year by +8.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.50 (which is 2.2% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Coface has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 11.6014
P/E Forward = 8.6356
P/S = 1.3028
P/B = 1.1088
Revenue TTM = 1.86b EUR
EBIT TTM = 315.2m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 355.2m EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.97b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59m EUR (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 2.15b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 88.8m
Net Debt = -994.9m EUR (calculated: Debt 2.15b - CCE 3.15b)
Enterprise Value = 1.40b EUR (2.39b + Debt 2.15b - CCE 3.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.65 (Ebit TTM 315.2m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m)
EV/FCF = 10.56x (Enterprise Value 1.40b / FCF TTM 132.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.47% (FCF TTM 132.6m / Enterprise Value 1.40b)
FCF Margin = 7.14% (FCF TTM 132.6m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Net Margin = 11.08% (Net Income TTM 205.7m / Revenue TTM 1.86b)
Gross Margin = 52.74% ((Revenue TTM 1.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 877.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.08% (prev 43.34%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.17 (Enterprise Value 1.40b / Total Assets 8.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.91% (Interest Expense 41.2m / Debt 2.15b)
Taxrate = 24.79% (67.9m / 274.0m)
NOPAT = 237.1m (EBIT 315.2m * (1 - 24.79%))
Current Ratio = 3.53 (Total Current Assets 7.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 2.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.80 (Net Debt -994.9m / EBITDA 355.2m)
Debt / FCF = -7.51 (Net Debt -994.9m / FCF TTM 132.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.49% (Net Income 205.7m / Total Assets 8.47b)
RoE = 9.36% (Net Income TTM 205.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.20b)
RoCE = 7.56% (EBIT 315.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.20b + L.T.Debt 1.97b))
RoIC = 3.72% (NOPAT 237.1m / Invested Capital 6.38b)
WACC = 4.19% (E(2.39b)/V(4.55b) * Re(6.67%) + D(2.15b)/V(4.55b) * Rd(1.91%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.38 | Cagr: 0.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.68% ; FCFF base≈135.6m ; Y1≈130.0m ; Y5≈125.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.84 (EV 1.97b - Net Debt -994.9m = Equity 2.97b / Shares 149.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -5.39% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.18 | EPS CAGR: -5.66% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.31 | Revenue CAGR: 6.23% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.46 | Chg30d=-2.54% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-2.4% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.60 | Chg30d=-1.27% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=0, down=5)