(COFA) Coface - Ratings and Ratios
Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Surety Bonds
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 9.36% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 26.02% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 33.21% |
| Payout Consistency | 72.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 90.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.62 |
| Alpha | 10.11 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.86 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.515 |
| Beta | 0.080 |
| Beta Downside | 0.200 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.62% |
| Mean DD | 5.38% |
| Median DD | 4.46% |
Description: COFA Coface November 10, 2025
COFACE SA (ticker COFA) is a French-based credit-insurance specialist that protects companies of all sizes-from micro-enterprises to multinational corporations-against non-payment of trade receivables. Its product suite extends beyond traditional credit cover to include single-risk policies, factoring, customs and excise bonds, environmental surety, and payment guarantees, all supported by a digital risk-management platform (iCON) and the Universal Risk Business Assessment (URBA) service for portfolio monitoring.
The group operates across 7 geographic zones (Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean & Africa, North America, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific), leveraging a diversified client base to mitigate concentration risk. In 2023 COFACE reported gross written premiums of roughly €2.3 billion, a combined ratio of 92 % and a solvency ratio comfortably above the EU regulatory minimum, indicating strong underwriting discipline amid a volatile global trade environment.
Key sector drivers include rising cross-border trade volumes, heightened supply-chain disruptions, and increasing ESG-related underwriting standards, all of which boost demand for comprehensive credit-risk solutions. For a deeper quantitative view of COFA’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (243.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 104.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.31pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 171.0% (prev 45.42%; Δ 125.6pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 167.5m <= Net Income 243.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.36b) to EBITDA (417.2m) ratio: 3.27 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 8.26 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (149.3m) change vs 12m ago -0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 88.68% (prev 87.78%; Δ 0.90pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 21.80% (prev 20.50%; Δ 1.30pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 9.19 (EBITDA TTM 417.2m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.45
| (A) 0.37 = (Total Current Assets 3.38b - Total Current Liabilities 409.1m) / Total Assets 8.07b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.14b / Total Assets 8.07b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 378.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.97b |
| (D) 0.24 = Book Value of Equity 1.44b / Total Liabilities 5.97b |
| Total Rating: 3.45 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.24
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 14.87% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.07% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.86 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.27 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.58)% |
| 7. RoE 11.26% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 41.92% |
| 9. EPS Trend -47.63% |
What is the price of COFA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.45%, over one month by +3.89%, over three months by -3.17% and over the past year by +12.93%.
Is COFA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the COFA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 18.1 | 20.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 18.5 | 23.4% |
COFA Fundamental Data Overview November 27, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 2.25b (2.25b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 9.7987
P/S = 1.1635
P/B = 1.0279
Beta = 0.497
Revenue TTM = 1.74b EUR
EBIT TTM = 378.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 417.2m EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.74b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.65m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.80b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.36b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 942.1m EUR (2.25b + Debt 1.80b - CCE 3.11b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.19 (Ebit TTM 378.0m / Interest Expense TTM 41.2m)
FCF Yield = 14.87% (FCF TTM 140.1m / Enterprise Value 942.1m)
FCF Margin = 8.07% (FCF TTM 140.1m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = 13.99% (Net Income TTM 243.0m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 88.68% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 196.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.44% (prev 89.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.12 (Enterprise Value 942.1m / Total Assets 8.07b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.56% (Interest Expense 10.1m / Debt 1.80b)
Taxrate = 26.26% (22.2m / 84.6m)
NOPAT = 278.8m (EBIT 378.0m * (1 - 26.26%))
Current Ratio = 8.26 (Total Current Assets 3.38b / Total Current Liabilities 409.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.86 (Debt 1.80b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.27 (Net Debt 1.36b / EBITDA 417.2m)
Debt / FCF = 9.73 (Net Debt 1.36b / FCF TTM 140.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.01% (Net Income 243.0m / Total Assets 8.07b)
RoE = 11.26% (Net Income TTM 243.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.16b)
RoCE = 9.71% (EBIT 378.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.16b + L.T.Debt 1.74b))
RoIC = 7.27% (NOPAT 278.8m / Invested Capital 3.84b)
WACC = 3.69% (E(2.25b)/V(4.05b) * Re(6.31%) + D(1.80b)/V(4.05b) * Rd(0.56%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.97% ; FCFE base≈211.2m ; Y1≈182.6m ; Y5≈144.9m
Fair Price DCF = 17.70 (DCF Value 2.64b / Shares Outstanding 149.2m; 5y FCF grow -16.49% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -47.63 | EPS CAGR: -16.31% | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.92 | Revenue CAGR: -0.82% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.77 | Chg30d=+0.047 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+5.5% | Growth Revenue=+3.9%