COFA Stock Analysis: Coface | PA
Insurance - Reinsurance | PA, France | Market Cap: 2.287m EUR | 12M Return: 0.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 2.53M
EPS Trend: -42.9%
Rev. Trend: 89.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Coface SA (PA: COFA) is a France-headquartered provider of trade credit insurance and related risk management services, founded in 1946 and operating globally. The company serves a broad client base spanning small and medium enterprises, mid-market firms, international corporations, and financial institutions. Trade credit insurance is a specialized segment of the property and casualty insurance market that protects sellers against the risk of non-payment by their commercial buyers, distinguishing Coface from generalist P&C insurers.
The companys product lineup includes multi-tier insurance contracts such as TradeLiner and EasyLiner for SMEs, GlobaLiner for multinationals, and single-risk medium-term cover for commercial and political risks. Beyond insurance, Coface generates revenue from complementary services including business information reports, debt collection, factoring, and a wide range of surety bonds (contract, customs, environmental, and legal bonds), as well as digital tools like CofaNet, Coface Dashboard, CofaMove, CofaServe, and the AlyX credit risk management platform.
Coface also monetizes its proprietary business intelligence through offerings such as Urba360, Full and Snapshot reports, scoring models, Credit Opinions, Portfolio Insights, Selectio, and Economic Insights, which are sold both to insured clients and external users. The group operates across Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region, making it one of a small handful of globally diversified trade credit insurers alongside Euler Hermes (Allianz) and Atradius.
- European corporate insolvencies rise, lifting claims and policy demand
- Higher interest rates boost investment income from premium reserves
- Trade volume slowdown pressures premium growth across European markets
| Net Income: 213.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -50.80% < 20% (prev 280.3%; Δ -331.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 175.7m > Net Income 213.5m |
| Net Debt (2.08b) to EBITDA (357.2m): 5.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (150.2m) vs 12m ago 0.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 89.31% > 18% (prev 88.63%; Δ 0.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 21.32% > 50% (prev 20.68%; Δ 0.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 324.0m / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 858.7m - Total Current Liabilities 1.77b) / Total Assets 8.49b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 1.34b / Total Assets 8.49b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 324.0m / Avg Total Assets 8.40b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 2.25b / Total Liabilities 6.24b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.45 = B |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 385.9m/3.63b, Revenue 1.79b/1.72b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 88.63% / 89.31%) |
| AQI: 5.17 (AQ_t 0.89 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.79b / 1.72b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 213.5m - CFO 175.7m) / TA 8.49b) |
| Beneish M = -1.27 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 15.27 with a total of 163,744 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.59%, over one month by +4.30%, over three months by +5.77% and over the past year by +0.37%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.90 (which is 2.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Coface has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 10.6993
P/E Forward = 8.6356
P/S = 1.2541
P/B = 1.0146
Revenue TTM = 1.79b EUR
EBIT TTM = 324.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 357.2m EUR
Long Term Debt = 1.83b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.56b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 68.5m
Net Debt = 2.08b EUR (calculated: Debt 2.56b - CCE 472.8m)
Enterprise Value = 4.37b EUR (2.29b + Debt 2.56b - CCE 472.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.97 (Ebit TTM 324.0m / Interest Expense TTM 40.6m)
EV/FCF = 31.70x (Enterprise Value 4.37b / FCF TTM 137.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.15% (FCF TTM 137.9m / Enterprise Value 4.37b)
FCF Margin = 7.70% (FCF TTM 137.9m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Net Margin = 11.93% (Net Income TTM 213.5m / Revenue TTM 1.79b)
Gross Margin = 89.31% ((Revenue TTM 1.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 191.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.17% (prev 88.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.51 (Enterprise Value 4.37b / Total Assets 8.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 40.6m / Debt 2.56b)
Taxrate = 24.40% (69.2m / 283.4m)
NOPAT = 245.0m (EBIT 324.0m * (1 - 24.40%))
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 858.7m / Total Current Liabilities 1.77b)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 2.56b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.84 (Net Debt 2.08b / EBITDA 357.2m)
Debt / FCF = 15.11 (Net Debt 2.08b / FCF TTM 137.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.54% (Net Income 213.5m / Total Assets 8.49b)
RoE = 9.80% (Net Income TTM 213.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.18b)
RoCE = 8.09% (EBIT 324.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.18b + L.T.Debt 1.83b))
RoIC = 3.69% (NOPAT 245.0m / Invested Capital 6.64b)
WACC = 3.73% (E(2.29b)/V(4.84b) * Re(6.55%) + D(2.56b)/V(4.84b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 55.21 | Cagr: 0.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈152.2m ; Y1≈133.5m ; Y5≈107.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.73b - Net Debt 2.08b = -353.5m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -42.87 | EPS CAGR: -2.94% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.44 | Revenue CAGR: 4.91% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+0.2% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -73% (up=0, down=8)