(ES) Esso S.A.F. - Ratings and Ratios
Refined Oil, Petrochemicals, Fuels
Description: ES Esso S.A.F.
Esso S.A.F. (PA:ES) is a French oil and gas refining and marketing company with a market capitalization of approximately €1.2 billion. The companys stock has exhibited relatively low volatility, as indicated by its beta of 0.236, suggesting a defensive investment profile.
The stocks current price is €95.85, with a 52-week range of €63.01 to €114.80, indicating a potential for growth. The companys price-to-earnings ratio is 11.30, which is relatively low compared to its peers, suggesting potential undervaluation. Additionally, the return on equity (RoE) is 35.28%, indicating a high level of profitability.
Key drivers for Esso S.A.F.s stock performance include global oil demand, refining margins, and competitive positioning within the European oil and gas market. The companys refining and marketing business is heavily influenced by crude oil prices, with higher prices potentially compressing refining margins. Conversely, a decline in crude oil prices could boost refining margins and positively impact the companys profitability.
To evaluate the stocks potential, key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth, gross margin, and return on capital employed (ROCE) should be closely monitored. A detailed analysis of the companys income statement, particularly the yearly Income Tax Expense, would provide insights into its tax strategy and potential impact on profitability.
From a valuation perspective, the stocks price-to-earnings ratio and dividend yield should be compared to industry averages to determine if the stock is undervalued or overvalued. Additionally, the companys debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage ratio would provide insights into its capital structure and ability to meet its financial obligations.
ES Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 1,501m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| IPO / Inception |
ES Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 87.6% |
| Fundamental | 73.5% |
| Dividend Rating | 84.1% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 3.28% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
ES Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 9.38% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 119.05% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 173.86% |
| Payout Consistency | 56.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 36.2% |
ES Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 34.8% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 79.1% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 91.8% |
| CAGR 5y | 67.61% |
| CAGR/Max DD 5y | 1.46 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.94 |
| Alpha | 15.85 |
| Beta | 0.334 |
| Volatility | 32.26% |
| Current Volume | 4.1k |
| Average Volume 20d | 5.4k |
| Stop Loss | 95.4 (-3.1%) |
| Signal | -1.58 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (783.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.23b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.52 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 13.96pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 5.41% (prev 8.59%; Δ -3.18pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.55 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.50b > Net Income 783.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-1.48b) to EBITDA (975.8m) ratio: -1.52 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.08 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (12.9m) change vs 12m ago NaN% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 3.01% (prev 5.09%; Δ -2.07pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 802.4% (prev 525.6%; Δ 276.8pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 22.88 (EBITDA TTM 975.8m / Interest Expense TTM 36.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.29
| (A) 0.44 = (Total Current Assets 3.87b - Total Current Liabilities 1.86b) / Total Assets 4.52b |
| (B) 0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 106.5m / Total Assets 4.52b |
| (C) 0.18 = EBIT TTM 828.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.63b |
| (D) 0.09 = Book Value of Equity 204.9m / Total Liabilities 2.27b |
| Total Rating: 4.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.51
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt = 2.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield data missing |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.28% = 1.57 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.01 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.02 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC 21.12% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 35.28% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 28.59% = 1.43 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 11.42% = 1.43 |
| 10. EPS Trend -16.79% = -0.42 |
| 11. EPS CAGR -28.87% = -2.50 |
What is the price of ES shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%, over one month by +4.35%, over three months by +12.11% and over the past year by +21.27%.
Is Esso S.A.F. a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ES is around 157.96 EUR . This means that ES is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +60.45% (Margin of Safety).
Is ES a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the ES price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.5 | -65% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 174.7 | 77.5% |
ES Fundamental Data Overview
Market Cap EUR = 1.28b (1.28b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 1.50b EUR (last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 11.8358
P/S = 0.0715
P/B = 0.5534
Beta = 0.236
Revenue TTM = 37.18b EUR
EBIT TTM = 828.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 975.8m EUR
Long Term Debt = 6.20m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.3m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.5m EUR (Calculated: Short Term 10.3m + Long Term 6.20m)
Net Debt = -1.48b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -195.3m EUR (1.28b + Debt 16.5m - CCE 1.50b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 22.88 (Ebit TTM 828.3m / Interest Expense TTM 36.2m)
FCF Yield = -1196 % (FCF TTM 2.34b / Enterprise Value -195.3m)
FCF Margin = 6.28% (FCF TTM 2.34b / Revenue TTM 37.18b)
Net Margin = 2.11% (Net Income TTM 783.0m / Revenue TTM 37.18b)
Gross Margin = 3.01% ((Revenue TTM 37.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 36.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.95 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -195.3m / Book Value Of Equity 204.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 47.27% (Interest Expense 7.80m / Debt 16.5m)
Taxrate = 22.43% (30.8m / 137.3m)
NOPAT = 642.5m (EBIT 828.3m * (1 - 22.43%))
Current Ratio = 2.08 (Total Current Assets 3.87b / Total Current Liabilities 1.86b)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 16.5m / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 2.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.02 (Net Debt -1.48b / EBITDA 975.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.01 (Debt 16.5m / FCF TTM 2.34b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.22b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 17.31% (Net Income 783.0m, Total Assets 4.52b )
RoE = 35.28% (Net Income TTM 783.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.22b)
RoCE = 37.22% (Ebit 828.3m / (Equity 2.22b + L.T.Debt 6.20m))
RoIC = 28.75% (NOPAT 642.5m / Invested Capital 2.24b)
WACC = 7.62% (E(1.28b)/V(1.30b) * Re(7.25%)) + (D(16.5m)/V(1.30b) * Rd(47.27%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
Discount Rate = 7.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + ERP 8.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈2.12b ; Y1≈2.61b ; Y5≈4.45b
Fair Price DCF = 5892 (DCF Value 75.74b / Shares Outstanding 12.9m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 28.59 | Revenue CAGR: 11.42%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: -138.0
EPS Correlation: -16.79 | EPS CAGR: -28.87%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: -223.4