AXFO Stock Analysis: Axfood | ST

Grocery Stores | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 58.018m SEK | 12M Return: -5.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Groceries, Wholesale Distribution, Private Label, E-Commerce
Total Rating 32
Safety 51
Buy Signal -1.34
Grocery Stores
Industry Rotation: -1.2
Market Cap: 5.98B
Avg Turnover: 79.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility21.1%
VaR 5th Pctl3.30%
VaR vs Median-3.90%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Rel. Str. IBD14.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group26.5
Character TTM
Beta-0.275
Beta Downside-0.584
Hurst Exponent0.477
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD27.10%
CAGR/Max DD0.16
CAGR/Mean DD0.43
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AXFO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 2.48, "2021-09": 3, "2021-12": 2.55, "2022-03": 2.54, "2022-06": 2.9, "2022-09": 3.54, "2022-12": 2.45, "2023-03": 2.39, "2023-06": 3.14, "2023-09": 3.57, "2023-12": 2.67, "2024-03": 2.59, "2024-06": 2.67, "2024-09": 3.25, "2024-12": 2.08, "2025-03": 2.22, "2025-06": 2.96, "2025-09": 3.29, "2025-12": 2.69, "2026-03": 2.41,
EPS CAGR: -3.16%
EPS Trend: -57.1%
Last SUE: -0.73
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AXFO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 13903, 2021-09: 13723, 2021-12: 17062, 2022-03: 16593, 2022-06: 18468, 2022-09: 18674, 2022-12: 19739, 2023-03: 19252, 2023-06: 20797, 2023-09: 20293, 2023-12: 20769, 2024-03: 20252, 2024-06: 21044, 2024-09: 20902, 2024-12: 21860, 2025-03: 21040, 2025-06: 22995, 2025-09: 22286, 2025-12: 22831, 2026-03: 21595,
Rev. CAGR: 4.88%
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Last SUE: -1.95
Qual. Beats: -6

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +0.1% 0
Feb -1.8% 12
Mar +3.0% 40
Apr +0.7% 8
May +0.4% 8
Jun -0.3% 13
Jul +1.5% 9
Aug -0.8% 9
Sep -1.3% 22
Oct -0.1% 8
Nov +0.3% 11
Dec +0.6% 12

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AXFO Axfood

Axfood AB is a Swedish food retail and wholesale company headquartered in Stockholm, operating through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through multiple store chains, including Willys, HANDLARN, Hemköp, Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo, and also runs e-commerce operations alongside private label products.

In addition to grocery retail, Axfood operates Urban Deli, a restaurant-store-market hall concept, as well as Apohem, an online pharmacy. It serves restaurants, fast food operators, cafés, and independent retailer-owned stores through its Snabbgross wholesale arm and Matöppet network. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is a subsidiary of Axretail AB.

As a food retailer in the consumer staples sector, Axfood benefits from demand patterns that are typically non-cyclical, with grocery sales remaining relatively stable across economic cycles. The Swedish grocery market is dominated by a small number of large chains, and Axfoods multi-banner strategy allows it to target different price points and customer segments, from discount (Willys) to premium convenience (Hemköp, Urban Deli).

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Willys discount chain gains market share in Sweden
  • Private label expansion supports gross margin resilience
  • Swedish food inflation moderates pressuring like-for-like sales
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 2.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -7.37% < 20% (prev -7.67%; Δ 0.29% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 6.61b > Net Income 2.41b
Net Debt (28.7b) to EBITDA (7.83b): 3.67 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.60 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (216.8m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: 14.77% > 18% (prev 14.58%; Δ 0.19% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 246.8% > 50% (prev 239.1%; Δ 7.67% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.73b / Interest Expense TTM 582.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.20
A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 9.75b - Total Current Liabilities 16.4b) / Total Assets 37.2b
B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 5.29b / Total Assets 37.2b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 3.73b / Avg Total Assets 36.4b)
D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 6.12b / Total Liabilities 30.8b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.20 = B
Beneish M -2.53
DSRI: 1.62 (Receivables 2.56b/1.50b, Revenue 89.7b/84.8b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 14.58% / 14.77%)
AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.22)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 89.7b / 84.8b)
TATA: -0.11 (NI 2.41b - CFO 6.61b) / TA 37.2b)
Beneish M = -2.53 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of AXFO shares?

As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 265.40 with a total of 206,723 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.23%, over one month by +0.34%, over three months by -16.46% and over the past year by -5.36%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 259.70 (which is 2.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is AXFO a buy, sell or hold?

Axfood has no consensus analysts rating.

Axfood (AXFO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 09 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.98b (58.0b SEK * 0.1031 SEK.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.1854
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 0.6468
P/B = 9.2563
P/EG = 4.8872
Revenue TTM = 89.7b SEK
EBIT TTM = 3.73b SEK
EBITDA TTM = 7.83b SEK
Long Term Debt = 1.70b SEK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.65b SEK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 29.1b SEK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.0b
Net Debt = 28.7b SEK (calculated: Debt 29.1b - CCE 384.0m)
Enterprise Value = 86.7b SEK (58.0b + Debt 29.1b - CCE 384.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.41 (Ebit TTM 3.73b / Interest Expense TTM 582.0m)
EV/FCF = 17.81x (Enterprise Value 86.7b / FCF TTM 4.87b)
FCF Yield = 5.61% (FCF TTM 4.87b / Enterprise Value 86.7b)
FCF Margin = 5.43% (FCF TTM 4.87b / Revenue TTM 89.7b)
Net Margin = 2.69% (Net Income TTM 2.41b / Revenue TTM 89.7b)
Gross Margin = 14.77% ((Revenue TTM 89.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 76.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.88% (prev 14.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.33 (Enterprise Value 86.7b / Total Assets 37.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.00% (Interest Expense 582.0m / Debt 29.1b)
Taxrate = 21.65% (676.0m / 3.12b)
NOPAT = 2.92b (EBIT 3.73b * (1 - 21.65%))
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 9.75b / Total Current Liabilities 16.4b)
Debt / Equity = 4.76 (Debt 29.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.67 (Net Debt 28.7b / EBITDA 7.83b)
Debt / FCF = 5.90 (Net Debt 28.7b / FCF TTM 4.87b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.63% (Net Income 2.41b / Total Assets 37.2b)
RoE = 35.98% (Net Income TTM 2.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.70b)
RoCE = 44.41% (EBIT 3.73b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.70b + L.T.Debt 1.70b))
RoIC = 12.12% (NOPAT 2.92b / Invested Capital 24.1b)
WACC = 3.86% (E(58.0b)/V(87.1b) * Re(5.01%) + D(29.1b)/V(87.1b) * Rd(2.00%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 5.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 57.95 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈4.35b ; Y1≈4.98b ; Y5≈7.33b
[DCF] Fair Price = 378.0 (EV 110b - Net Debt 28.7b = Equity 81.6b / Shares 215.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -57.06 | EPS CAGR: -3.16% | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.15 | Revenue CAGR: 4.88% | SUE: -1.95 | # QB: -6
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.21 | Chg30d=-3.33% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.79 | Chg30d=-2.98% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.46 | Chg30d=-1.75% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.87 | Chg30d=-2.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+11.4% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -77% (up=0, down=10)