AXFO Stock Analysis: Axfood | ST

Grocery Stores | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 53.237m SEK | 12M Return: -15.1% | SE0006993770 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Groceries, Wholesale Distribution, Private Label, E-Commerce
Total Rating 28
Safety 61
Buy Signal -0.63
Grocery Stores
Industry Rotation: +4.2
Market Cap: 5.60B
Avg Turnover: 82.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility21.1%
VaR 5th Pctl3.26%
VaR vs Median-4.75%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Rel. Str. IBD9.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group19.4
Character TTM
Beta-0.485
Beta Downside-0.875
Hurst Exponent0.428
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD31.74%
CAGR/Max DD0.03
CAGR/Mean DD0.09
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AXFO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 2.48, "2021-09": 3, "2021-12": 2.55, "2022-03": 2.54, "2022-06": 2.9, "2022-09": 3.54, "2022-12": 2.45, "2023-03": 2.39, "2023-06": 3.14, "2023-09": 3.57, "2023-12": 2.67, "2024-03": 2.59, "2024-06": 2.67, "2024-09": 3.25, "2024-12": 2.08, "2025-03": 2.22, "2025-06": 2.96, "2025-09": 3.43, "2025-12": 2.69, "2026-03": 2.43, "2026-06": 2.95,
EPS CAGR: -1.72%
EPS Trend: -31.1%
Last SUE: -1.02
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of AXFO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 13903, 2021-09: 13723, 2021-12: 17062, 2022-03: 16593, 2022-06: 18468, 2022-09: 18674, 2022-12: 19739, 2023-03: 19252, 2023-06: 20797, 2023-09: 20293, 2023-12: 20769, 2024-03: 20252, 2024-06: 21044, 2024-09: 20902, 2024-12: 21860, 2025-03: 21040, 2025-06: 22995, 2025-09: 22286, 2025-12: 22831, 2026-03: 21595, 2026-06: 23197,
Rev. CAGR: 4.64%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Last SUE: -1.48
Qual. Beats: -7

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +1.1% 5
Feb -3.2% 17
Mar +3.5% 51
Apr +0.2% 2
May +0.7% 13
Jun -0.1% 7
Jul -2.5% 6
Aug -1.2% 16
Sep -1.2% 27
Oct -1.1% 14
Nov -0.3% 0
Dec +0.8% 17

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AXFO Axfood

Axfood AB is a Swedish food retail and wholesale company headquartered in Stockholm, operating through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through multiple store chains, including Willys, HANDLARN, Hemköp, Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo, and also runs e-commerce operations alongside private label products.

In addition to grocery retail, Axfood operates Urban Deli, a restaurant-store-market hall concept, as well as Apohem, an online pharmacy. It serves restaurants, fast food operators, cafés, and independent retailer-owned stores through its Snabbgross wholesale arm and Matöppet network. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is a subsidiary of Axretail AB.

As a food retailer in the consumer staples sector, Axfood benefits from demand patterns that are typically non-cyclical, with grocery sales remaining relatively stable across economic cycles. The Swedish grocery market is dominated by a small number of large chains, and Axfoods multi-banner strategy allows it to target different price points and customer segments, from discount (Willys) to premium convenience (Hemköp, Urban Deli).

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Willys discount chain gains market share in Sweden
  • Private label expansion supports gross margin resilience
  • Swedish food inflation moderates pressuring like-for-like sales
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 2.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.61 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -5.86% < 20% (prev -7.13%; Δ 1.26% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 5.90b > Net Income 2.43b
Net Debt (28.6b) to EBITDA (7.87b): 3.63 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (216.8m) vs 12m ago 0.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 14.75% > 18% (prev 14.71%; Δ 0.03% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 245.6% > 50% (prev 240.2%; Δ 5.44% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.76b / Interest Expense TTM 579.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.46
A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 9.62b - Total Current Liabilities 14.9b) / Total Assets 37.1b
B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 5.29b / Total Assets 37.1b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 3.76b / Avg Total Assets 36.6b)
D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 6.74b / Total Liabilities 30.0b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.46 = B
Beneish M -2.96
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 2.59b/2.29b, Revenue 89.9b/86.8b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 14.71% / 14.75%)
AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.21)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 89.9b / 86.8b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 2.43b - CFO 5.90b) / TA 37.1b)
Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of AXFO shares?

As of August 28, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 248.30 with a total of 199,917 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.01%, over one month by +3.80%, over three months by -6.76% and over the past year by -15.14%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 244.10 (which is 1.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is AXFO a buy, sell or hold?

Axfood has no consensus analysts rating.

Axfood (AXFO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.60b (53.2b SEK * 0.1051 SEK.USD)
P/E Trailing = 21.9786
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 0.5921
P/B = 7.818
P/EG = 4.8872
Revenue TTM = 89.9b SEK
EBIT TTM = 3.76b SEK
EBITDA TTM = 7.87b SEK
Long Term Debt = 2.40b SEK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.73b SEK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 28.9b SEK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.0b
Net Debt = 28.6b SEK (calculated: Debt 28.9b - CCE 337.0m)
Enterprise Value = 81.8b SEK (53.2b + Debt 28.9b - CCE 337.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.49 (Ebit TTM 3.76b / Interest Expense TTM 579.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.18x (Enterprise Value 81.8b / FCF TTM 4.26b)
FCF Yield = 5.21% (FCF TTM 4.26b / Enterprise Value 81.8b)
FCF Margin = 4.74% (FCF TTM 4.26b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Net Margin = 2.70% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Gross Margin = 14.75% ((Revenue TTM 89.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 76.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.83% (prev 14.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.21 (Enterprise Value 81.8b / Total Assets 37.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.00% (Interest Expense 579.0m / Debt 28.9b)
Taxrate = 21.56% (679.0m / 3.15b)
NOPAT = 2.95b (EBIT 3.76b * (1 - 21.56%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 9.62b / Total Current Liabilities 14.9b)
Debt / Equity = 4.29 (Debt 28.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.63 (Net Debt 28.6b / EBITDA 7.87b)
Debt / FCF = 6.70 (Net Debt 28.6b / FCF TTM 4.26b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.64% (Net Income 2.43b / Total Assets 37.1b)
RoE = 35.60% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.83b)
RoCE = 40.70% (EBIT 3.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.83b + L.T.Debt 2.40b))
RoIC = 11.99% (NOPAT 2.95b / Invested Capital 24.6b)
WACC = 3.32% (E(53.2b)/V(82.1b) * Re(4.27%) + D(28.9b)/V(82.1b) * Rd(2.00%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 4.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.34 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.08% ; FCFF base≈4.31b ; Y1≈4.23b ; Y5≈4.29b
[DCF] Fair Price = 178.4 (EV 67.1b - Net Debt 28.6b = Equity 38.5b / Shares 215.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.60% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -31.08 | EPS CAGR: -1.72% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.95 | Revenue CAGR: 4.64% | SUE: -1.48 | # QB: -7
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.59 | Chg30d=+0.94% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.74 | Chg30d=+0.14% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+3.3% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.05 | Chg30d=+0.51% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -83% (up=0, down=15)