AXFO Stock Analysis: Axfood | ST
Grocery Stores | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 55.763m SEK | 12M Return: -5.2% | SE0006993770 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 109M
EPS Trend: -31.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: -7
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Axfood AB is a Swedish food retail and wholesale company operating through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. Its portfolio includes both company-owned chains (Willys, Hemköp, City Gross) and retailer-owned formats (HANDLARN, Tempo, Matöppet, Eurocash), giving it exposure across discount, supermarket, and convenience store price points.
Beyond traditional grocery retail, Axfood operates an e-commerce business, a private label offering, the Urban Deli restaurant-store concept, and Apohem, an online pharmacy. The wholesale arm, Snabbgross, and Dagabs supply chain operations serve restaurants, fast food operators, cafés, and independent retailers across Sweden. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Stockholm.
The Swedish grocery sector is highly concentrated, dominated by three major retail groups, with private label products typically accounting for a meaningful share of total sales across the industry. Food retail is generally considered a defensive sector, with demand patterns that tend to be stable through economic cycles. Axfood operates as a subsidiary of Axretail AB.
- Swedish food inflation lifts Willys comparable sales
- Discount competition from Lidl pressures grocery margins
- E-commerce and Dagab logistics scale drive segment revenue growth
| Net Income: 2.43b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.61 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.86% < 20% (prev -7.13%; Δ 1.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 5.90b > Net Income 2.43b |
| Net Debt (28.6b) to EBITDA (7.87b): 3.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (216.8m) vs 12m ago 0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.75% > 18% (prev 14.71%; Δ 0.03% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 245.6% > 50% (prev 240.2%; Δ 5.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.76b / Interest Expense TTM 579.0m) |
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 9.62b - Total Current Liabilities 14.9b) / Total Assets 37.1b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 5.29b / Total Assets 37.1b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 3.76b / Avg Total Assets 36.6b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 6.74b / Total Liabilities 30.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.46 = B |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 2.59b/2.29b, Revenue 89.9b/86.8b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 14.71% / 14.75%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 89.9b / 86.8b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 2.43b - CFO 5.90b) / TA 37.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 260.00 with a total of 424,946 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.77%, over one month by +7.57%, over three months by -0.26% and over the past year by -5.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 249.40 (which is 4.1% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Axfood has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 23.0214
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 0.6202
P/B = 8.2667
P/EG = 4.8872
Revenue TTM = 89.9b SEK
EBIT TTM = 3.76b SEK
EBITDA TTM = 7.87b SEK
Long Term Debt = 2.40b SEK (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.73b SEK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 28.9b SEK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.0b
Net Debt = 28.6b SEK (calculated: Debt 28.9b - CCE 337.0m)
Enterprise Value = 84.3b SEK (55.8b + Debt 28.9b - CCE 337.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.49 (Ebit TTM 3.76b / Interest Expense TTM 579.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.77x (Enterprise Value 84.3b / FCF TTM 4.26b)
FCF Yield = 5.06% (FCF TTM 4.26b / Enterprise Value 84.3b)
FCF Margin = 4.74% (FCF TTM 4.26b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Net Margin = 2.70% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Revenue TTM 89.9b)
Gross Margin = 14.75% ((Revenue TTM 89.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 76.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.83% (prev 14.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.27 (Enterprise Value 84.3b / Total Assets 37.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.00% (Interest Expense 579.0m / Debt 28.9b)
Taxrate = 21.56% (679.0m / 3.15b)
NOPAT = 2.95b (EBIT 3.76b * (1 - 21.56%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 9.62b / Total Current Liabilities 14.9b)
Debt / Equity = 4.29 (Debt 28.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.63 (Net Debt 28.6b / EBITDA 7.87b)
Debt / FCF = 6.70 (Net Debt 28.6b / FCF TTM 4.26b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.64% (Net Income 2.43b / Total Assets 37.1b)
RoE = 35.60% (Net Income TTM 2.43b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.83b)
RoCE = 40.70% (EBIT 3.76b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.83b + L.T.Debt 2.40b))
RoIC = 11.99% (NOPAT 2.95b / Invested Capital 24.6b)
WACC = 3.32% (E(55.8b)/V(84.7b) * Re(4.22%) + D(28.9b)/V(84.7b) * Rd(2.00%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 4.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.34 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.08% ; FCFF base≈4.31b ; Y1≈4.23b ; Y5≈4.29b
[DCF] Fair Price = 178.4 (EV 67.1b - Net Debt 28.6b = Equity 38.5b / Shares 215.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.60% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -31.08 | EPS CAGR: -1.72% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.95 | Revenue CAGR: 4.64% | SUE: -1.48 | # QB: -7
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.53 | Chg30d=-1.76% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.67 | Chg30d=-0.60% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+2.6% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.99 | Chg30d=-0.46% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+11.2% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -18% (up=3, down=5)