EVO Stock Analysis: Evolution (publ) | ST
Gambling | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 129.807m SEK | 12M Return: -12.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 532M
EPS Trend: 67.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Evolution AB (publ) is a Swedish B2B provider that develops, produces, and licenses live casino and online slots content to gaming operators worldwide, with a geographic footprint spanning Europe, Asia, North America, and Latin America. Rather than serving end consumers directly, the company supplies its games and platforms to operators under a software licensing model, a structure common in the iGaming supply chain. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Stockholm, it was previously known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ).
The companys product portfolio spans several acquired and organically developed brands. Under the Evolution and Ezugi brands it offers live casino and game-show style titles; NetEnt covers online casino slots; Red Tiger provides jackpot systems, bonus management tools, and tournament gamification; Big Time Gaming contributes slot mechanics; Nolimit City adds online casino platform and games; DigiWheel supplies HD spinning gaming wheels; and Livespins offers B2B social streaming games. This brand-based structure reflects a roll-up strategy that has built Evolution into one of the larger content providers in the live dealer segment of the online gambling industry.
Live dealer casino, Evolutions core category, typically involves real human dealers streamed from dedicated studios, allowing online operators to offer an experience that approximates a physical casino floor. The company sits within the Casinos & Gaming sub-industry of Consumer Discretionary, supplying technology and content rather than operating gambling venues itself.
- North America live casino expansion accelerates market share gains
- Asian regulatory tightening weighs on studio utilization
- Slots and RNG diversification offsets live casino maturity
| Net Income: 1.06b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 49.92% < 20% (prev 46.21%; Δ 3.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 1.24b > Net Income 1.06b |
| Net Debt (-998.8m) to EBITDA (1.42b): -0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.8m) vs 12m ago -5.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.44% > 18% (prev 100.0%; Δ -41.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.57% > 50% (prev 38.18%; Δ -1.61% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 113.3 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.26b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 2.43b - Total Current Liabilities 1.37b) / Total Assets 5.85b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 2.05b / Total Assets 5.85b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 1.26b / Avg Total Assets 5.77b) |
| D: 2.78 (Book Value of Equity 4.30b / Total Liabilities 1.55b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.70 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.41 (Receivables 497.1m/1.24b, Revenue 2.11b/2.17b) |
| GMI: 1.71 (GM 100.0% / 58.44%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 2.11b / 2.17b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 1.06b - CFO 1.24b) / TA 5.85b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 677.80 with a total of 616,116 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.96%, over one month by -3.58%, over three months by +12.14% and over the past year by -12.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 654.40 (which is 3.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Evolution (publ) has no consensus analysts rating.
Market Cap EUR = 11.7b (130b SEK * 0.0903 SEK.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 11.4536
P/E Forward = 11.5875
P/S = 63.0548
P/B = 2.7106
Revenue TTM = 2.11b EUR
EBIT TTM = 1.26b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.42b EUR
Long Term Debt = 72.8m EUR (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 17.8m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 88.4m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 88.4m already included)
Net Debt = -998.8m EUR (calculated: Debt 88.4m - CCE 1.09b)
Enterprise Value = 10.7b EUR (11.7b + Debt 88.4m - CCE 1.09b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 113.3 (Ebit TTM 1.26b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = 9.40x (Enterprise Value 10.7b / FCF TTM 1.14b)
FCF Yield = 10.64% (FCF TTM 1.14b / Enterprise Value 10.7b)
FCF Margin = 54.06% (FCF TTM 1.14b / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Net Margin = 50.20% (Net Income TTM 1.06b / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Gross Margin = 58.44% ((Revenue TTM 2.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 877.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 61.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.83 (Enterprise Value 10.7b / Total Assets 5.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.54% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 88.4m)
Taxrate = 14.86% (185.0m / 1.24b)
NOPAT = 1.07b (EBIT 1.26b * (1 - 14.86%))
Current Ratio = 1.77 (Total Current Assets 2.43b / Total Current Liabilities 1.37b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 88.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -998.8m / EBITDA 1.42b)
Debt / FCF = -0.88 (Net Debt -998.8m / FCF TTM 1.14b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.98b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.36% (Net Income 1.06b / Total Assets 5.85b)
RoE = 26.63% (Net Income TTM 1.06b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.98b)
RoCE = 31.01% (EBIT 1.26b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.98b + L.T.Debt 72.8m))
RoIC = 24.38% (NOPAT 1.07b / Invested Capital 4.39b)
WACC = 5.76% (E(11.7b)/V(11.8b) * Re(5.72%) + D(88.4m)/V(11.8b) * Rd(12.54%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 5.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.89 | Cagr: -3.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.44% ; FCFF base≈1.18b ; Y1≈1.11b ; Y5≈1.04b
[DCF] Fair Price = 89.65 (EV 16.4b - Net Debt -998.8m = Equity 17.4b / Shares 194.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -6.99% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.81 | EPS CAGR: 6.93% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.96 | Revenue CAGR: 10.32% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=-0.25% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.33 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=-53% | GrowthEPS=+1.9% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.05 | Chg30d=+1.08% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+13.4% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56%