HOLM-B Stock Analysis: Holmen (publ) | ST
Paper & Paper Products | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 48.981m SEK | 12M Return: -7.8% | SE0011090018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 68.3M
EPS Trend: -72.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -76.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Holmen AB (publ) is a Swedish forest industry company founded in 1609 and headquartered in Stockholm, operating through four segments: Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper. The Forest segment supplies logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to its own and external sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills, while the Renewable Energy segment generates electricity from hydro and wind power for the Nordic market. The Wood Products segment serves construction, joinery, and packaging customers with timber, CLT, glulam, and pallet wood, and the Board and Paper segment produces packaging paperboard and graphic paper for brand owners, publishers, and retailers.
The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector, specifically the Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials sub-industry, and reflects a vertically integrated business model in which its forest holdings feed downstream production of wood products, paperboard, and paper. Operating in Sweden and internationally, Holmen is part of the broader Nordic forest cluster, a region historically dominant in European pulp, paper, and engineered wood production due to large coniferous forest resources and long-established mill infrastructure.
- Folding boxboard pricing strengthens on packaging demand
- European construction weakness pressures wood products volumes
- Nordic electricity prices boost renewable energy margins
| Net Income: 2.65b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.04% < 20% (prev 10.79%; Δ -1.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 3.44b > Net Income 2.65b |
| Net Debt (6.92b) to EBITDA (3.98b): 1.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (150.4m) vs 12m ago -5.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -24.35% > 18% (prev 48.17%; Δ -72.52% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.43% > 50% (prev 27.51%; Δ -1.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.47 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.54b / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 9.89b - Total Current Liabilities 7.93b) / Total Assets 81.1b |
| B: 0.39 (Retained Earnings 31.6b / Total Assets 81.1b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 2.54b / Avg Total Assets 81.8b) |
| D: 2.02 (Book Value of Equity 54.2b / Total Liabilities 26.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.75 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 4.48b/4.03b, Revenue 21.6b/22.7b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.07 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.42) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 21.6b / 22.7b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 2.65b - CFO 3.44b) / TA 81.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.48 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 325.00 with a total of 204,762 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.18%, over one month by -0.73%, over three months by +7.40% and over the past year by -7.78%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 312.40 (which is 3.9% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Holmen (publ) has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.8317
P/E Forward = 20.8333
P/S = 2.2338
P/B = 0.914
P/EG = 4.9436
Revenue TTM = 21.6b SEK
EBIT TTM = 2.54b SEK
EBITDA TTM = 3.98b SEK
Long Term Debt = 3.50b SEK (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.72b SEK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.10b SEK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 186.0m
Net Debt = 6.92b SEK (calculated: Debt 7.10b - CCE 182.0m)
Enterprise Value = 55.9b SEK (49.0b + Debt 7.10b - CCE 182.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.47 (Ebit TTM 2.54b / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m)
EV/FCF = 29.64x (Enterprise Value 55.9b / FCF TTM 1.89b)
FCF Yield = 3.37% (FCF TTM 1.89b / Enterprise Value 55.9b)
FCF Margin = 8.73% (FCF TTM 1.89b / Revenue TTM 21.6b)
Net Margin = 12.27% (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Revenue TTM 21.6b)
Gross Margin = -24.35% ((Revenue TTM 21.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.75% (prev 3.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 55.9b / Total Assets 81.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.31% (Interest Expense 164.0m / Debt 7.10b)
Taxrate = 7.43% (213.0m / 2.87b)
NOPAT = 2.35b (EBIT 2.54b * (1 - 7.43%))
Current Ratio = 1.25 (Total Current Assets 9.89b / Total Current Liabilities 7.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 7.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 54.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.74 (Net Debt 6.92b / EBITDA 3.98b)
Debt / FCF = 3.67 (Net Debt 6.92b / FCF TTM 1.89b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 55.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.24% (Net Income 2.65b / Total Assets 81.1b)
RoE = 4.80% (Net Income TTM 2.65b / Total Stockholder Equity 55.3b)
RoCE = 4.31% (EBIT 2.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 55.3b + L.T.Debt 3.50b))
RoIC = 3.10% (NOPAT 2.35b / Invested Capital 75.7b)
WACC = 6.40% (E(49.0b)/V(56.1b) * Re(7.02%) + D(7.10b)/V(56.1b) * Rd(2.31%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.38 | Cagr: -2.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.67b ; Y1≈1.92b ; Y5≈2.82b
[DCF] Fair Price = 337.7 (EV 42.4b - Net Debt 6.92b = Equity 35.5b / Shares 105.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -72.33 | EPS CAGR: -10.46% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -76.02 | Revenue CAGR: -2.15% | SUE: 1.31 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=-1.02% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=14.86 | Chg30d=+0.15% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=-19.7% | GrowthRev=-0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.46 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.8% | GrowthRev=-0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -42% (up=4, down=12)