HOLM-B Stock Analysis: Holmen (publ) | ST
Paper & Paper Products | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 48.590m SEK | 12M Return: -7.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 42.1M
EPS Trend: -78.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -77.1%
Qual. Beats: -4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Holmen AB (publ) is a Swedish forest industry group operating through four segments: Forest, Renewable Energy, Wood Products, and Board and Paper. Founded in 1609 and headquartered in Stockholm, the company supplies logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and board and paper mills; generates hydro and wind power for the Nordic electricity market; produces construction timber, CLT, and glulam for the building sector; and manufactures paperboard and paper for packaging, publishing, and printing customers. Holmen is classified in the GICS Materials sector (Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials) and is vertically integrated across the forest value chain-a common Nordic forest industry model that combines raw material ownership, industrial processing, and energy generation under a single group.
- Board and Paper margins track European paperboard pricing cycle
- Renewable Energy revenue rises with Nordic electricity spot prices
- Wood Products demand softens as European construction activity slows
| Net Income: 2.75b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.92% < 20% (prev 8.03%; Δ 3.89% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 4.31b > Net Income 2.75b |
| Net Debt (4.67b) to EBITDA (4.39b): 1.06 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (153.4m) vs 12m ago -2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -10.64% > 18% (prev 36.27%; Δ -46.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.94% > 50% (prev 27.42%; Δ -1.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 152.0m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 11.3b - Total Current Liabilities 8.73b) / Total Assets 82.3b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 31.6b / Total Assets 82.3b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Avg Total Assets 83.1b) |
| D: 1.98 (Book Value of Equity 54.6b / Total Liabilities 27.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.77 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 4.07b/4.72b, Revenue 21.6b/23.0b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.07 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 21.6b / 23.0b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 2.75b - CFO 4.31b) / TA 82.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.69 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 328.20 with a total of 170,570 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.88%, over one month by +7.82%, over three months by +4.46% and over the past year by -7.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 314.30 (which is 4.2% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Holmen (publ) has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.2383
P/E Forward = 20.8333
P/S = 2.1785
P/B = 0.8897
P/EG = 4.9436
Revenue TTM = 21.6b SEK
EBIT TTM = 2.94b SEK
EBITDA TTM = 4.39b SEK
Long Term Debt = 3.50b SEK (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.87b SEK (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.27b SEK (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 202.0m
Net Debt = 4.67b SEK (calculated: Debt 6.27b - CCE 1.60b)
Enterprise Value = 53.3b SEK (48.6b + Debt 6.27b - CCE 1.60b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.32 (Ebit TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 152.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.25x (Enterprise Value 53.3b / FCF TTM 2.63b)
FCF Yield = 4.94% (FCF TTM 2.63b / Enterprise Value 53.3b)
FCF Margin = 12.20% (FCF TTM 2.63b / Revenue TTM 21.6b)
Net Margin = 12.73% (Net Income TTM 2.75b / Revenue TTM 21.6b)
Gross Margin = -10.64% ((Revenue TTM 21.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 3.56% (prev -105.3%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 53.3b / Total Assets 82.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.42% (Interest Expense 152.0m / Debt 6.27b)
Taxrate = 8.10% (242.0m / 2.99b)
NOPAT = 2.70b (EBIT 2.94b * (1 - 8.10%))
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 11.3b / Total Current Liabilities 8.73b)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 6.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 54.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.06 (Net Debt 4.67b / EBITDA 4.39b)
Debt / FCF = 1.78 (Net Debt 4.67b / FCF TTM 2.63b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 55.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.30% (Net Income 2.75b / Total Assets 82.3b)
RoE = 4.92% (Net Income TTM 2.75b / Total Stockholder Equity 55.8b)
RoCE = 4.95% (EBIT 2.94b / Capital Employed (Equity 55.8b + L.T.Debt 3.50b))
RoIC = 3.63% (NOPAT 2.70b / Invested Capital 74.4b)
WACC = 6.58% (E(48.6b)/V(54.9b) * Re(7.14%) + D(6.27b)/V(54.9b) * Rd(2.42%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -83.41 | Cagr: -1.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.03b ; Y1≈2.32b ; Y5≈3.42b
[DCF] Fair Price = 444.4 (EV 51.4b - Net Debt 4.67b = Equity 46.7b / Shares 105.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.29 | EPS CAGR: -15.33% | SUE: -0.53 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -77.14 | Revenue CAGR: -2.44% | SUE: -1.12 | # QB: -4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.67 | Chg30d=-1.80% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.71 | Chg30d=-2.32% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.17 | Chg30d=-1.82% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-18.0% | GrowthRev=-1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.58 | Chg30d=-0.46% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+9.2% | GrowthRev=+0.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=1, down=9)