LUG Stock Analysis: Lundin Gold | ST
Gold | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 128.026m SEK | 12M Return: 11.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 54.8M
EPS Trend: 72.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Lundin Gold Inc. is a Canadian mineral exploration and mining company focused on gold and silver in Ecuador. The company holds a portfolio of 27 metallic mineral concessions and 3 construction material concessions covering roughly 65,000 hectares, but its core asset is a 100% interest in the Fruta del Norte gold project, which spans about 5,566 hectares in the Cordillera del Cóndor region of southeast Ecuador.
The companys business model is characteristic of single-asset precious metals producers, where cash flow and valuation depend heavily on the operating performance and remaining reserve life of one flagship mine. As a GICS-classified Gold sub-industry Materials company, Lundin Golds revenue is tied directly to realized gold prices and production volumes, exposing it to commodity price volatility and country-specific operational risk in Ecuador, a jurisdiction where mining regulation and community relations are key value drivers.
Lundin Gold was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. It was originally named Fortress Minerals Corp. and adopted its current name in December 2014, reflecting the Lundin Groups involvement in repositioning the company around the Fruta del Norte discovery.
- Gold price rally boosts Fruta del Norte revenue and margins
- Ecuador regulatory stability remains critical for FDN operations
- Production growth and AISC discipline drive free cash flow
| Net Income: 914.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.61 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 20.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.60% < 20% (prev 41.66%; Δ -13.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.66 > 3% & CFO 1.20b > Net Income 914.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (cannot be calculated) |
| Current Ratio: 2.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (242.8m) vs 12m ago 0.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.85% > 18% (prev 62.28%; Δ 8.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 116.2% > 50% (prev 81.98%; Δ 34.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 1.03b - Total Current Liabilities 455.3m) / Total Assets 1.83b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 336.2m / Total Assets 1.83b) |
| C: 0.75 (EBIT TTM 1.29b / Avg Total Assets 1.72b) |
| D: 2.91 (Book Value of Equity 1.36b / Total Liabilities 467.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 10.75 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.63 (Receivables 214.0m/225.6m, Revenue 2.00b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 62.28% / 70.85%) |
| AQI: 1.84 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 2.00b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 914.7m - CFO 1.20b) / TA 1.83b) |
| Beneish M = -2.60 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at SEK 527.20 with a total of 68,164 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.80%, over one month by -7.90%, over three months by -30.25% and over the past year by +11.81%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 488.00 (which is 7.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Lundin Gold has no consensus analysts rating.
Market Cap USD = 13.2b (128b SEK * 0.1031 SEK.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.4133
P/E Forward = 12.5313
P/S = 64.2066
P/B = 10.0822
Revenue TTM = 2.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.29b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.43b USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = unknown
Net Debt = unknown
Enterprise Value = 12.5b USD (13.2b + (null Debt) - CCE 703.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.29b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 11.16x (Enterprise Value 12.5b / FCF TTM 1.12b)
FCF Yield = 8.96% (FCF TTM 1.12b / Enterprise Value 12.5b)
FCF Margin = 55.96% (FCF TTM 1.12b / Revenue TTM 2.00b)
Net Margin = 45.73% (Net Income TTM 914.7m / Revenue TTM 2.00b)
Gross Margin = 70.85% ((Revenue TTM 2.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 583.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.15% (prev 67.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.83 (Enterprise Value 12.5b / Total Assets 1.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = unknown (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt none)
Taxrate = 30.08% (393.5m / 1.31b)
NOPAT = 904.2m (EBIT 1.29b * (1 - 30.08%))
Current Ratio = 2.26 (Total Current Assets 1.03b / Total Current Liabilities 455.3m)
Debt / Equity = unknown (Debt none)
Debt / EBITDA = unknown (Net Debt none / EBITDA 1.43b)
Debt / FCF = unknown (Net Debt none / FCF TTM 1.12b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 53.12% (Net Income 914.7m / Total Assets 1.83b)
RoE = 68.28% (Net Income TTM 914.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 94.04% (EBIT 1.29b / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.83b - Current Liab 455.3m))
RoIC = 70.91% (NOPAT 904.2m / Invested Capital 1.28b)
WACC = 7.16% (E(13.2b)/V(13.2b) * Re(7.16%) + (debt-free company))
Discount Rate = 7.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.61 | Cagr: 0.57%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈934.7m ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈1.58b
[DCF] Fair Price = 98.13 (EV 23.7b - Net Debt 0.0 = Equity 23.7b / Shares 241.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 72.30 | EPS CAGR: 65.15% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.10 | Revenue CAGR: 36.57% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.01 | Chg30d=+1.11% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.21 | Chg30d=-2.50% | Revisions=-22% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.44 | Chg30d=-3.84% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+35.8% | GrowthRev=+33.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.69 | Chg30d=-2.08% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -65% (up=3, down=20)