VSURE Stock Analysis: Verisure | ST
Security & Protection Services | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 10.557m EUR | 12M Return: -31.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.88M
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 0.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Verisure plc provides integrated security solutions for residential and small business markets across Europe and Latin America. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in London, the company operates as a subsidiary of Aegis Lux 2 Sàrl, offering a full-service suite that includes professional installation, 24/7 monitoring, and emergency response services.
The business model relies on a recurring revenue structure driven by long-term monitoring contracts, which provide predictable cash flows typical of the security services industry. Unlike DIY security providers, Verisure utilizes a vertically integrated approach, managing the entire value chain from product development and hardware installation to professional alarm verification and technical maintenance.
The company protects clients against a range of hazards, including burglary, fire, and medical emergencies. In the security and protection services sector, market growth is increasingly driven by the integration of smart home technology and Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities into traditional alarm systems.
- Subscription revenue growth driven by rising residential security penetration
- EBITDA margins expand through lower customer acquisition costs and churn
- High leverage levels sensitive to interest rate and refinancing costs
- Market share gains in Latin America offset European saturation risks
| Net Income: -189.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.59% < 20% (prev -12.69%; Δ 5.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income -189.6m |
| Net Debt (5.49b) to EBITDA (1.60b): 3.44 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.03b) vs 12m ago -1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.63% > 18% (prev 27.03%; Δ 21.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.32% > 50% (prev 21.23%; Δ 8.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.75 > 6 (EBIT TTM 437.4m / Interest Expense TTM 586.5m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 994.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.35b) / Total Assets 16.4b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -1.08b / Total Assets 16.4b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 437.4m / Avg Total Assets 16.2b) |
| D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 8.88b / Total Liabilities 7.48b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.07 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 636.1m/420.2m, Revenue 4.75b/3.41b) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 27.03% / 48.63%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.39 (Revenue 4.75b / 3.41b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -189.6m - CFO 1.32b) / TA 16.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 10.30 with a total of 821,032 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.18%, over one month by +0.27%, over three months by +24.26% and over the past year by -31.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.70 (which is 5.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Verisure has no consensus analysts rating.
P/S = 2.7457
Revenue TTM = 4.75b EUR
EBIT TTM = 437.4m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.60b EUR
Long Term Debt = 4.84b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 329.8m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 5.52b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 209.0m
Net Debt = 5.49b EUR (calculated: Debt 5.52b - CCE 32.4m)
Enterprise Value = 16.0b EUR (10.6b + Debt 5.52b - CCE 32.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.75 (Ebit TTM 437.4m / Interest Expense TTM 586.5m)
EV/FCF = 47.89x (Enterprise Value 16.0b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.09% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Enterprise Value 16.0b)
FCF Margin = 7.05% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Revenue TTM 4.75b)
Net Margin = -3.99% (Net Income TTM -189.6m / Revenue TTM 4.75b)
Gross Margin = 48.63% ((Revenue TTM 4.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.89% (prev 47.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 16.0b / Total Assets 16.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.62% (Interest Expense 586.5m / Debt 5.52b)
Taxrate = 31.71% (28.7m / 90.5m)
NOPAT = 298.7m (EBIT 437.4m * (1 - 31.71%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 994.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 5.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.44 (Net Debt 5.49b / EBITDA 1.60b)
Debt / FCF = 16.39 (Net Debt 5.49b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.17% (Net Income -189.6m / Total Assets 16.4b)
RoE = -2.58% (Net Income TTM -189.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.34b)
RoCE = 3.59% (EBIT 437.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.34b + L.T.Debt 4.84b))
RoIC = 1.95% (NOPAT 298.7m / Invested Capital 15.3b)
WACC = 9.67% (E(10.6b)/V(16.1b) * Re(10.93%) + D(5.52b)/V(16.1b) * Rd(10.62%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 10.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -59.76 | Cagr: -1.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.63% ; FCFF base≈356.0m ; Y1≈316.8m ; Y5≈263.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.46b - Net Debt 5.49b = -2.03b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.99 | Revenue CAGR: 10.10% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-3.23% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.30% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+60.7% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+19.9% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +21% (up=7, down=4)