VSURE Stock Analysis: Verisure | ST

Security & Protection Services | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 10.557m EUR | 12M Return: -31.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Alarm Systems, Security Cameras, Smart Locks, Smoke Detectors
Total Rating 30
Safety 63
Buy Signal -0.70
Security & Protection Services
Industry Rotation: +5.4
Market Cap: 12.0B
Avg Turnover: 7.88M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility51.0%
VaR 5th Pctl8.82%
VaR vs Median4.98%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Rel. Str. IBD18.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group25
Character TTM
Beta1.405
Beta Downside1.473
Hurst Exponent0.441
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD49.10%
CAGR/Max DD-0.92
CAGR/Mean DD-1.80
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of VSURE over the last years for every Quarter: "2022-12": null, "2023-12": null, "2024-06": null, "2024-12": null, "2025-03": null, "2025-06": null, "2025-09": -0.06, "2025-12": 0.12, "2026-03": 0.15,
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of VSURE over the last years for every Quarter: 2022-12: 2827.022, 2023-12: 3089.97, 2024-06: 1683.519, 2024-12: 1724.499, 2025-03: 919.9, 2025-06: 1847.749, 2025-09: null, 2025-12: 964.7, 2026-03: 1019.3,
Rev. CAGR: 10.10%
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 0.7 years of data

Jan +2.2% -
Feb -28.7% -
Mar -2.1% -
Apr +22.9% -
May +12.8% -
Jun -12.5% -
Jul - -
Aug - -
Sep - -
Oct - -
Nov +10.3% -
Dec -9.3% -

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: VSURE Verisure

Verisure plc provides integrated security solutions for residential and small business markets across Europe and Latin America. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in London, the company operates as a subsidiary of Aegis Lux 2 Sàrl, offering a full-service suite that includes professional installation, 24/7 monitoring, and emergency response services.

The business model relies on a recurring revenue structure driven by long-term monitoring contracts, which provide predictable cash flows typical of the security services industry. Unlike DIY security providers, Verisure utilizes a vertically integrated approach, managing the entire value chain from product development and hardware installation to professional alarm verification and technical maintenance.

The company protects clients against a range of hazards, including burglary, fire, and medical emergencies. In the security and protection services sector, market growth is increasingly driven by the integration of smart home technology and Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities into traditional alarm systems.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Subscription revenue growth driven by rising residential security penetration
  • EBITDA margins expand through lower customer acquisition costs and churn
  • High leverage levels sensitive to interest rate and refinancing costs
  • Market share gains in Latin America offset European saturation risks
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: -189.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.36 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -7.59% < 20% (prev -12.69%; Δ 5.09% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income -189.6m
Net Debt (5.49b) to EBITDA (1.60b): 3.44 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.03b) vs 12m ago -1.04% < -2%
Gross Margin: 48.63% > 18% (prev 27.03%; Δ 21.60% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 29.32% > 50% (prev 21.23%; Δ 8.09% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.75 > 6 (EBIT TTM 437.4m / Interest Expense TTM 586.5m)
Altman Z'' 1.07
A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 994.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.35b) / Total Assets 16.4b
B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -1.08b / Total Assets 16.4b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 437.4m / Avg Total Assets 16.2b)
D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 8.88b / Total Liabilities 7.48b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.07 = BB
Beneish M -3.10
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 636.1m/420.2m, Revenue 4.75b/3.41b)
GMI: 0.56 (GM 27.03% / 48.63%)
AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.84)
SGI: 1.39 (Revenue 4.75b / 3.41b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -189.6m - CFO 1.32b) / TA 16.4b)
Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of VSURE shares?

As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 10.30 with a total of 821,032 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.18%, over one month by +0.27%, over three months by +24.26% and over the past year by -31.50%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.70 (which is 5.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is VSURE a buy, sell or hold?

Verisure has no consensus analysts rating.

Verisure (VSURE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 12.0b (10.6b EUR * 1.1405 EUR.USD)
P/S = 2.7457
Revenue TTM = 4.75b EUR
EBIT TTM = 437.4m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.60b EUR
Long Term Debt = 4.84b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 329.8m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 5.52b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 209.0m
Net Debt = 5.49b EUR (calculated: Debt 5.52b - CCE 32.4m)
Enterprise Value = 16.0b EUR (10.6b + Debt 5.52b - CCE 32.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.75 (Ebit TTM 437.4m / Interest Expense TTM 586.5m)
EV/FCF = 47.89x (Enterprise Value 16.0b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.09% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Enterprise Value 16.0b)
FCF Margin = 7.05% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Revenue TTM 4.75b)
Net Margin = -3.99% (Net Income TTM -189.6m / Revenue TTM 4.75b)
Gross Margin = 48.63% ((Revenue TTM 4.75b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.89% (prev 47.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 16.0b / Total Assets 16.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.62% (Interest Expense 586.5m / Debt 5.52b)
Taxrate = 31.71% (28.7m / 90.5m)
NOPAT = 298.7m (EBIT 437.4m * (1 - 31.71%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 994.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 5.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.44 (Net Debt 5.49b / EBITDA 1.60b)
Debt / FCF = 16.39 (Net Debt 5.49b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.17% (Net Income -189.6m / Total Assets 16.4b)
RoE = -2.58% (Net Income TTM -189.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.34b)
RoCE = 3.59% (EBIT 437.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.34b + L.T.Debt 4.84b))
RoIC = 1.95% (NOPAT 298.7m / Invested Capital 15.3b)
WACC = 9.67% (E(10.6b)/V(16.1b) * Re(10.93%) + D(5.52b)/V(16.1b) * Rd(10.62%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 10.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -59.76 | Cagr: -1.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.63% ; FCFF base≈356.0m ; Y1≈316.8m ; Y5≈263.5m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.46b - Net Debt 5.49b = -2.03b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.99 | Revenue CAGR: 10.10% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-3.23% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.56 | Chg30d=-0.30% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+60.7% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+19.9% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +21% (up=7, down=4)