NOVN Stock Analysis: Novartis | SW
Drug Manufacturers - General | SW, Switzerland | Market Cap: 223.752m CHF | 12M Return: 15.1% | CH0012005267 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 371M
EPS Trend: 92.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novartis AG is a Swiss-headquartered pharmaceutical company incorporated in 1996 and based in Basel. It operates across the full pharmaceutical value chain, including research, development, manufacturing, distribution, marketing, and sales of medicines in Switzerland and international markets.
The companys portfolio spans several therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, renal and metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. Key marketed products include Entresto (heart failure), Cosentyx (inflammatory diseases), Kisqali (oncology), Pluvicto (prostate cancer), Zolgensma (spinal muscular atrophy), Leqvio (LDL cholesterol reduction), and Lutathera, among others.
Novartis holds a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to develop, manufacture, and commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran). The pharmaceutical sector relies heavily on patent-protected branded drugs, long R&D cycles, and regulatory approvals, with Switzerland serving as a global hub for major pharmaceutical companies.
- Entresto patent expiry threatens peak revenue franchise
- Pluvicto radioligand therapy sales accelerate in prostate cancer
- Cosentyx biosimilar competition pressures immunology segment growth
| Net Income: 12.7b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.05% < 20% (prev -10.46%; Δ 2.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 18.1b > Net Income 12.7b |
| Net Debt (43.4b) to EBITDA (22.1b): 1.96 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.91b) vs 12m ago -2.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.29% > 18% (prev 76.25%; Δ -1.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.32% > 50% (prev 52.86%; Δ -4.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 27.4b - Total Current Liabilities 31.8b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 39.8b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 16.8b / Avg Total Assets 113b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 41.7b / Total Liabilities 80.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.36 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 9.88b/9.18b, Revenue 54.8b/55.2b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 76.25% / 74.29%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 54.8b / 55.2b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 12.7b - CFO 18.1b) / TA 122b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at CHF 119.10 with a total of 1,772,212 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.37%, over one month by +6.66%, over three months by -4.18% and over the past year by +15.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 114.40 (which is 3.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Novartis has no consensus analysts rating.
Market Cap USD = 269b (224b CHF * 1.2042 CHF.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.4229
P/E Forward = 14.771
P/S = 3.9467
P/B = 6.5538
P/EG = 3.3562
Revenue TTM = 54.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.1b USD
Long Term Debt = 37.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.89b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 51.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.94b
Net Debt = 43.4b USD (calculated: Debt 51.1b - CCE 7.71b)
Enterprise Value = 313b USD (269b + Debt 51.1b - CCE 7.71b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.18 (Ebit TTM 16.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b)
EV/FCF = 19.58x (Enterprise Value 313b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
FCF Yield = 5.11% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Enterprise Value 313b)
FCF Margin = 29.16% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Revenue TTM 54.8b)
Net Margin = 23.09% (Net Income TTM 12.7b / Revenue TTM 54.8b)
Gross Margin = 74.29% ((Revenue TTM 54.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.47% (prev 73.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.56 (Enterprise Value 313b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.70% (Interest Expense 1.38b / Debt 51.1b)
Taxrate = 17.86% (2.75b / 15.4b)
NOPAT = 13.8b (EBIT 16.8b * (1 - 17.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.86 (Total Current Assets 27.4b / Total Current Liabilities 31.8b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 51.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.96 (Net Debt 43.4b / EBITDA 22.1b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 43.4b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.16% (Net Income 12.7b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 29.64% (Net Income TTM 12.7b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.7b)
RoCE = 20.92% (EBIT 16.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.7b + L.T.Debt 37.5b))
RoIC = 14.10% (NOPAT 13.8b / Invested Capital 97.7b)
WACC = 4.77% (E(269b)/V(321b) * Re(5.26%) + D(51.1b)/V(321b) * Rd(2.70%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 5.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.96 | Cagr: -3.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.71% ; FCFF base≈16.8b ; Y1≈15.2b ; Y5≈13.2b
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.50 (EV 210b - Net Debt 43.4b = Equity 166b / Shares 1.90b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -11.49% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.05 | EPS CAGR: 11.39% | SUE: 2.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.11 | Revenue CAGR: 7.56% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.27 | Chg30d=+3.35% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.86 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=+36% | GrowthEPS=-1.3% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.84 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+7% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=14, down=7)