UHR Stock Analysis: The Swatch | SW
Luxury Goods | SW, Switzerland | Market Cap: 9.227m CHF | 12M Return: 9.4% | CH0012255151 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -92.3%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Swatch Group AG is a Swiss manufacturer and retailer of watches, jewelry, and watch components, operating through two main segments: Watches & Jewelry, which produces and commercializes its branded timepieces and jewelry, and Electronic Systems, which handles electronic components and sports timing technology. Beyond core production, the company manages assembly, R&D, logistics, distribution, and customer service, and also holds ancillary activities in real estate, finance, reinsurance, and retail. Its portfolio includes a tiered set of brands ranging from prestige names such as Breguet, Blancpain, and Harry Winston to mid-market and entry-level labels like Longines, Rado, Tissot, Hamilton, and Swatch, allowing it to address multiple price points within the global watch market. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.
Operating within the Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sub-industry of Consumer Discretionary, the Swatch Group is notable for its multi-brand strategy and deep vertical integration, producing movements, cases, dials, hands, batteries, and other components in-house-a model that distinguishes major Swiss watchmakers from competitors that rely on outsourced parts. The Swiss watch industry as a whole is concentrated in a few regions (notably the Jura arc and the broader French-Swiss border area) and is recognized globally as a leading exporter of finished watches, with Switzerland historically accounting for a significant share of world watch exports by value.
- Omega sales decline drags down Watches & Jewelry segment
- Greater China demand weakness pressures luxury watch volumes
- Swiss franc appreciation squeezes operating margins and tourist demand
| Net Income: 9.00m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 133.6% < 20% (prev 135.3%; Δ -1.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 631.0m > Net Income 9.00m |
| Net Debt (-1.12b) to EBITDA (560.0m): -2.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.70 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.0m) vs 12m ago 0.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.16% > 18% (prev 82.55%; Δ -23.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.91% > 50% (prev 46.83%; Δ 0.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 28.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 141.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.00m) |
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 9.74b - Total Current Liabilities 1.26b) / Total Assets 13.5b |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 13.4b / Total Assets 13.5b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 141.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.5b) |
| D: 5.74 (Book Value of Equity 11.4b / Total Liabilities 1.98b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 13.46 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 618.0m/598.0m, Revenue 6.34b/6.35b) |
| GMI: 1.40 (GM 82.55% / 59.16%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 6.34b / 6.35b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 9.00m - CFO 631.0m) / TA 13.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at CHF 183.90 with a total of 110,750 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.66%, over one month by +5.90%, over three months by -12.39% and over the past year by +9.37%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 175.10 (which is 4.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
The Swatch has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 1043.8235
P/E Forward = 21.0084
P/S = 1.4549
P/B = 0.8232
P/EG = 0.0712
Revenue TTM = 6.34b CHF
EBIT TTM = 141.0m CHF
EBITDA TTM = 560.0m CHF
Long Term Debt = 2.00m CHF (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 234.0m CHF (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 236.0m CHF (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.12b CHF (calculated: Debt 236.0m - CCE 1.36b)
Enterprise Value = 8.10b CHF (9.23b + Debt 236.0m - CCE 1.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.20 (Ebit TTM 141.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.00m)
EV/FCF = 30.01x (Enterprise Value 8.10b / FCF TTM 270.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 270.0m / Enterprise Value 8.10b)
FCF Margin = 4.26% (FCF TTM 270.0m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Net Margin = 0.14% (Net Income TTM 9.00m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Gross Margin = 59.16% ((Revenue TTM 6.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.62% (prev 81.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 8.10b / Total Assets 13.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.12% (Interest Expense 5.00m / Debt 236.0m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 105.8m (EBIT 141.0m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 7.70 (Total Current Assets 9.74b / Total Current Liabilities 1.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 236.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.01 (Net Debt -1.12b / EBITDA 560.0m)
Debt / FCF = -4.16 (Net Debt -1.12b / FCF TTM 270.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.07% (Net Income 9.00m / Total Assets 13.5b)
RoE = 0.08% (Net Income TTM 9.00m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.7b)
RoCE = 1.21% (EBIT 141.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.7b + L.T.Debt 2.00m))
RoIC = 0.87% (NOPAT 105.8m / Invested Capital 12.1b)
WACC = 8.59% (E(9.23b)/V(9.46b) * Re(8.77%) + D(236.0m)/V(9.46b) * Rd(2.12%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -3.09 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.59% ; FCFF base≈270.0m ; Y1≈271.1m ; Y5≈287.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 187.1 (EV 4.29b - Net Debt -1.12b = Equity 5.41b / Shares 28.9m; r=8.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -92.28 | Revenue CAGR: -8.77% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=4.88 | Chg30d=+2.38% | Revisions=-10% | GrowthEPS=+30.5% | GrowthRev=-8.0%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.34 | Chg30d=-1.94% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+8572.8% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=3, down=9)