HWX Stock Analysis: Headwater Exploration | TO
Oil & Gas E&P | TO, Canada | Market Cap: 3.424m CAD | 12M Return: 81.3% | CA4220961078 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.1M
EPS Trend: 3.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 77.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Headwater Exploration Inc. is a Canadian oil and natural gas exploration and production company based in Calgary. It holds interests in Alberta’s Marten Hills area and New Brunswick’s McCully Field, and changed its name from Corridor Resources in March 2020.
As an exploration and production company, Headwater develops resources and sells produced oil and gas, with its business exposed to commodity prices.
- Clearwater production growth drives revenue and free cash flow
- WTI prices and heavy-oil differentials shape realized pricing
- Dividends and buybacks compete with drilling investment for capital
| Net Income: 186.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.53% < 20% (prev 10.68%; Δ -9.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.31 > 3% & CFO 335.2m > Net Income 186.2m |
| Net Debt (-85.9m) to EBITDA (368.2m): -0.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (239.4m) vs 12m ago -0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.84% > 18% (prev 50.65%; Δ 3.19% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.25% > 50% (prev 61.78%; Δ 2.47% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 237.3 > 6 (EBIT TTM 246.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 162.7m - Total Current Liabilities 152.5m) / Total Assets 1.10b |
| B: 0.29 (Retained Earnings 316.3m / Total Assets 1.10b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 246.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.04b) |
| D: 2.88 (Book Value of Equity 814.5m / Total Liabilities 283.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.61 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 67.9m/53.4m, Revenue 668.4m/607.1m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 50.65% / 53.84%) |
| AQI: 0.65 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 668.4m / 607.1m) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI 186.2m - CFO 335.2m) / TA 1.10b) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at CAD 12.97 with a total of 822,226 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.25%, over one month by -5.05%, over three months by +0.98% and over the past year by +81.29%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.00 (which is 7.5% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Headwater Exploration has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.0
P/E Forward = 21.645
P/S = 5.7834
P/B = 4.3118
Revenue TTM = 668.4m CAD
EBIT TTM = 246.8m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 368.2m CAD
Long Term Debt = 777k CAD (estimated: total debt 1.78m - short term 999k)
Short Term Debt = 999k CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.78m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.78m already included)
Net Debt = -85.9m CAD (calculated: Debt 1.78m - CCE 87.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.34b CAD (3.42b + Debt 1.78m - CCE 87.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 237.3 (Ebit TTM 246.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04m)
EV/FCF = 32.65x (Enterprise Value 3.34b / FCF TTM 102.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.06% (FCF TTM 102.2m / Enterprise Value 3.34b)
FCF Margin = 15.30% (FCF TTM 102.2m / Revenue TTM 668.4m)
Net Margin = 27.85% (Net Income TTM 186.2m / Revenue TTM 668.4m)
Gross Margin = 53.84% ((Revenue TTM 668.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 308.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.91% (prev 58.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.04 (Enterprise Value 3.34b / Total Assets 1.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 58.56% (Interest Expense 1.04m / Debt 1.78m)
Taxrate = 23.97% (58.7m / 244.9m)
NOPAT = 187.6m (EBIT 246.8m * (1 - 23.97%))
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 162.7m / Total Current Liabilities 152.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.78m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 814.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.23 (Net Debt -85.9m / EBITDA 368.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.84 (Net Debt -85.9m / FCF TTM 102.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 768.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.90% (Net Income 186.2m / Total Assets 1.10b)
RoE = 24.24% (Net Income TTM 186.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 768.1m)
RoCE = 32.10% (EBIT 246.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 768.1m + L.T.Debt 777k))
RoIC = 20.56% (NOPAT 187.6m / Invested Capital 912.8m)
WACC = 6.29% (E(3.42b)/V(3.43b) * Re(6.29%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 6.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.91 | Cagr: 0.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.86% ; FCFF base≈97.1m ; Y1≈110.7m ; Y5≈160.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.52 (EV 2.42b - Net Debt -85.9m = Equity 2.50b / Shares 237.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 14.28% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 3.02 | EPS CAGR: 0.38% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 77.63 | Revenue CAGR: 7.88% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=-24.74% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-15.6% | GrowthRev=-21.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=-7.91% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+6.5% | GrowthRev=+2.5%