MSA Stock Analysis: Mineros | TO

Gold, Silver, Hydroelectric Power

Total Rating 46

Safety 22

Buy Signal 0.39

Gold
Industry Rotation: -27.3

Market Cap: 2.02B
Avg Turnover: 2.19M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility42.5%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.32%

VaR vs Median4.58%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.34

Rel. Str. IBD97.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group94.6 pctl

Character TTM

Beta1.282

Beta Downside0.742

Hurst Exponent0.419

Choppyness3.81%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD40.74%

CAGR/Max DD4.33

CAGR/Mean DD22.56

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -0.28
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 32.63%
Rev. Trend: 93.8%

Last SUE: -0.81
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

Supp Ema20

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality

Not enough history

Description: MSA Mineros

Mineros S.A. explores for, develops, and produces gold and silver in Central and South America. Its assets include the Nechí Alluvial and Hemco properties, the La Pepa project, and a Colombian gold exploration project it has an option to acquire.

The company also generates hydroelectric power. Gold mining typically involves exploring deposits and then developing and operating mines, while production and project outcomes can be affected by ore quality, operating costs, and metal prices.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Gold prices and Colombian peso swings drive margins and cash flow
Nechí and Hemco production, grades, and costs shape earnings
Colombia and Nicaragua mining rules and security risks threaten operations

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5

Net Income: 199.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -15.55 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 18.29% < 20% (prev 17.35%; Δ 0.94% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 103.1m > Net Income 199.5m
Net Debt (14.5m) to EBITDA (461.8m): 0.03 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.68 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (294.8m) vs 12m ago -1.65% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.35% > 18% (prev 39.16%; Δ 2.19% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 125.3% > 50% (prev 93.36%; Δ 31.96% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 44.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM 397.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.92m)

Altman Z'' 6.69

A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 468.0m - Total Current Liabilities 278.6m) / Total Assets 973.3m
B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 144.5m / Total Assets 973.3m)
C: 0.48 (EBIT TTM 397.0m / Avg Total Assets 826.2m)
D: 1.62 (Book Value of Equity 601.4m / Total Liabilities 372.0m)
Altman-Z'' = 6.69 = AAA

Beneish M -1.10

DSRI: 2.39 (Receivables 115.3m/29.6m, Revenue 1.04b/634.0m)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 39.16% / 41.35%)
AQI: 1.63 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.12)
SGI: 1.63 (Revenue 1.04b / 634.0m)
TATA: 0.10 (NI 199.5m - CFO 103.1m) / TA 973.3m)
Beneish M = -1.10 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of MSA shares?

As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at CAD 9.65 with a total of 204,717 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.93%, over one month by +7.01%, over three months by +53.96% and over the past year by +97.94%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.10 (which is 5.7% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is MSA a buy, sell or hold?

Mineros has no consensus analysts rating.

Mineros (MSA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 2.02b (2.85b CAD * 0.7071 CAD.USD)
Market Cap USD = 2.02b (2.85b CAD * 0.7071 CAD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 10.3763
P/S = 2.8107
P/B = 3.5424
Revenue TTM = 1.04b USD
EBIT TTM = 397.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 461.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.69m USD (estimated: total debt 55.8m - short term 53.1m)
Short Term Debt = 53.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 55.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.5m USD (calculated: Debt 55.8m - CCE 41.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.03b USD (2.02b + Debt 55.8m - CCE 41.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 44.50 (Ebit TTM 397.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.92m)
EV/FCF = 65.81x (Enterprise Value 2.03b / FCF TTM 30.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.52% (FCF TTM 30.9m / Enterprise Value 2.03b)
FCF Margin = 2.98% (FCF TTM 30.9m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Net Margin = 19.27% (Net Income TTM 199.5m / Revenue TTM 1.04b)
Gross Margin = 41.35% ((Revenue TTM 1.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 607.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.58% (prev 48.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.09 (Enterprise Value 2.03b / Total Assets 973.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.99% (Interest Expense 8.92m / Debt 55.8m)
Taxrate = 37.58% (120.1m / 319.6m)
NOPAT = 247.8m (EBIT 397.0m * (1 - 37.58%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 468.0m / Total Current Liabilities 278.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 55.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 601.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.03 (Net Debt 14.5m / EBITDA 461.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.47 (Net Debt 14.5m / FCF TTM 30.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 546.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 24.15% (Net Income 199.5m / Total Assets 973.3m)
RoE = 36.49% (Net Income TTM 199.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 546.7m)
RoCE = 72.25% (EBIT 397.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 546.7m + L.T.Debt 2.69m))
RoIC = 35.07% (NOPAT 247.8m / Invested Capital 706.6m)
WACC = 9.94% (E(2.02b)/V(2.07b) * Re(9.94%) + D(55.8m)/V(2.07b) * Rd(15.99%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 9.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -74.27 | Cagr: -0.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 67.39% ; FCFF base≈69.4m ; Y1≈60.9m ; Y5≈49.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.07 (EV 625.8m - Net Debt 14.5m = Equity 611.2m / Shares 295.8m; r=9.94% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.80 | Revenue CAGR: 32.63% | SUE: -0.81 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+5.29% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+82.7% | GrowthRev=+17.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-2.92% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-25.7% | GrowthRev=-1.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)