NPI Stock Analysis: Northland Power | TO
Utilities - Renewable | TO, Canada | Market Cap: 5.753m CAD | 12M Return: -11.3% | CA6665111002 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.0M
EPS Trend: -11.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 57.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Northland Power is a Canada-based utility and independent power producer with operations across the Americas and Europe. It generates electricity from offshore and onshore wind, solar, natural gas, and battery storage, selling power through long-term power purchase agreements and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, it had a net economic interest in 3,014 MW of generating facilities.
Power purchase agreements set terms for electricity sales and can provide producers with greater revenue predictability. Battery storage can help balance variable output from wind and solar.
- Offshore wind construction delays and cost overruns pressure project returns
- Higher interest rates increase financing costs across capital-intensive portfolio
- Long-term power purchase agreements stabilize revenue but limit price upside
| Net Income: -140.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.94% < 20% (prev -5.46%; Δ 7.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.08b > Net Income -140.6m |
| Net Debt (6.34b) to EBITDA (1.11b): 5.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (261.5m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.73% > 18% (prev 70.30%; Δ -21.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.08% > 50% (prev 16.32%; Δ 2.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM 385.4m / Interest Expense TTM 335.7m) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 1.19b - Total Current Liabilities 1.14b) / Total Assets 13.2b |
| B: -0.13 (Retained Earnings -1.75b / Total Assets 13.2b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 385.4m / Avg Total Assets 13.4b) |
| D: 0.48 (Book Value of Equity 4.15b / Total Liabilities 8.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.29 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 339.1m/285.7m, Revenue 2.56b/2.24b) |
| GMI: 1.44 (GM 70.30% / 48.73%) |
| AQI: 1.18 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.56b / 2.24b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -140.6m - CFO 1.08b) / TA 13.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.39 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at CAD 22.04 with a total of 733,463 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.46%, over one month by -1.64%, over three months by +2.42% and over the past year by -11.29%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.90 (which is 5.2% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Northland Power has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 14.1443
P/S = 2.2273
P/B = 1.4125
P/EG = 2.5712
Revenue TTM = 2.56b CAD
EBIT TTM = 385.4m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 1.11b CAD
Long Term Debt = 5.80b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 760.2m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.98b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 155.2m
Net Debt = 6.34b CAD (calculated: Debt 6.98b - CCE 645.9m)
Enterprise Value = 12.1b CAD (5.75b + Debt 6.98b - CCE 645.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.15 (Ebit TTM 385.4m / Interest Expense TTM 335.7m)
EV/FCF = 13.19x (Enterprise Value 12.1b / FCF TTM 916.7m)
FCF Yield = 7.58% (FCF TTM 916.7m / Enterprise Value 12.1b)
FCF Margin = 35.75% (FCF TTM 916.7m / Revenue TTM 2.56b)
Net Margin = -5.48% (Net Income TTM -140.6m / Revenue TTM 2.56b)
Gross Margin = 48.73% ((Revenue TTM 2.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.36% (prev 51.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 12.1b / Total Assets 13.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.81% (Interest Expense 335.7m / Debt 6.98b)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 289.0m (EBIT 385.4m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.04 (Total Current Assets 1.19b / Total Current Liabilities 1.14b)
Debt / Equity = 1.68 (Debt 6.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.70 (Net Debt 6.34b / EBITDA 1.11b)
Debt / FCF = 6.91 (Net Debt 6.34b / FCF TTM 916.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.05% (Net Income -140.6m / Total Assets 13.2b)
RoE = -3.46% (Net Income TTM -140.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.07b)
RoCE = 3.91% (EBIT 385.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.07b + L.T.Debt 5.80b))
RoIC = 2.28% (NOPAT 289.0m / Invested Capital 12.7b)
WACC = 5.19% (E(5.75b)/V(12.7b) * Re(7.11%) + D(6.98b)/V(12.7b) * Rd(4.81%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.36 | Cagr: 1.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.11% ; FCFF base≈925.8m ; Y1≈910.9m ; Y5≈926.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 31.11 (EV 14.5b - Net Debt 6.34b = Equity 8.14b / Shares 261.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -2.41% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -11.94 | EPS CAGR: -2.94% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 57.72 | Revenue CAGR: 3.22% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-42.86% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.24 | Chg30d=-3.69% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=-13.4% | GrowthRev=+7.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=-0.13% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+47.1% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=2, down=9)