TOY Stock Analysis: Spin Master | TO
Leisure | TO, Canada | Market Cap: 2.108m CAD | 12M Return: 11.6% | CA8485101031 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.68M
EPS Trend: -68.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 41.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.2 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Spin Master Corp. is a Toronto-based children’s entertainment company that creates, manufactures, licenses, and markets toys, entertainment content, and digital games worldwide. Its business is organized into Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games.
Alongside toy products, the company produces multi-platform content and related consumer goods, while its digital games are distributed through third-party platforms. Spin Master operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector’s Leisure Products industry.
- Toy sales depend on hit launches and holiday demand
- PAW Patrol content and licensing drive entertainment revenue
- Digital game growth and Melissa & Doug integration shape margins
| Net Income: -110.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.17% < 20% (prev 5.79%; Δ 0.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 455.8m > Net Income -110.7m |
| Net Debt (500.2m) to EBITDA (130.7m): 3.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (102.9m) vs 12m ago -0.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.68% > 18% (prev 54.29%; Δ -1.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.03% > 50% (prev 77.45%; Δ 4.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.16 > 6 (EBIT TTM -40.0m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 884.7m - Total Current Liabilities 754.6m) / Total Assets 2.39b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 491.9m / Total Assets 2.39b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -40.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.57b) |
| D: 1.10 (Book Value of Equity 1.25b / Total Liabilities 1.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.08 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 571.1m/653.9m, Revenue 2.11b/2.13b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 54.29% / 52.68%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.53 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 2.11b / 2.13b) |
| TATA: -0.24 (NI -110.7m - CFO 455.8m) / TA 2.39b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 13, 2026, the stock is trading at CAD 22.14 with a total of 69,399 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.79%, over one month by +8.21%, over three months by +6.03% and over the past year by +11.55%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.70 (which is 6.5% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Spin Master has no consensus analysts rating.
Market Cap USD = 1.48b (2.11b CAD * 0.7017 CAD.USD)
P/E Forward = 9.5238
P/S = 0.9962
P/B = 1.2086
P/EG = 0.4542
Revenue TTM = 2.11b USD
EBIT TTM = -40.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 130.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 161.1m USD (from longTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 198.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 539.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 189.3m
Net Debt = 500.2m USD (calculated: Debt 539.1m - CCE 38.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.98b USD (1.48b + Debt 539.1m - CCE 38.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.16 (Ebit TTM -40.0m / Interest Expense TTM 34.5m)
EV/FCF = 5.41x (Enterprise Value 1.98b / FCF TTM 365.7m)
FCF Yield = 18.48% (FCF TTM 365.7m / Enterprise Value 1.98b)
FCF Margin = 17.34% (FCF TTM 365.7m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Net Margin = -5.25% (Net Income TTM -110.7m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Gross Margin = 52.68% ((Revenue TTM 2.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 997.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.02% (prev 57.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 1.98b / Total Assets 2.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.40% (Interest Expense 34.5m / Debt 539.1m)
Taxrate = 24.33% (25.4m / 104.4m)
NOPAT = -30.3m (EBIT -40.0m * (1 - 24.33%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.17 (Total Current Assets 884.7m / Total Current Liabilities 754.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 539.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.83 (Net Debt 500.2m / EBITDA 130.7m)
Debt / FCF = 1.37 (Net Debt 500.2m / FCF TTM 365.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.31% (Net Income -110.7m / Total Assets 2.39b)
RoE = -9.16% (Net Income TTM -110.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.21b)
RoCE = -2.92% (EBIT -40.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.21b + L.T.Debt 161.1m))
RoIC = -1.69% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -30.3m / Invested Capital 1.79b)
WACC = 6.77% (E(1.48b)/V(2.02b) * Re(7.47%) + D(539.1m)/V(2.02b) * Rd(6.40%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 7.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -38.46 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈324.8m ; Y1≈372.3m ; Y5≈548.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 250.7 (EV 8.25b - Net Debt 500.2m = Equity 7.75b / Shares 30.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -68.21 | EPS CAGR: -14.51% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.50 | Revenue CAGR: 2.95% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=-0.26 | Chg30d=+7.14% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-1.29% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+5.3% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-1.81% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+18.8% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=4, down=4)