ALR Stock Analysis: Alior Bank S.A. | WAR
Banks - Diversified | WAR, Poland | Market Cap: 17.945m PLN | 12M Return: 47.9% | PLALIOR00045 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.8M
EPS Trend: 9.0%
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.8 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Alior Bank S.A. is a Warsaw-based Polish bank serving retail, corporate, and enterprise customers. Its business spans lending and deposit-taking, alongside payments, foreign exchange, leasing, factoring, brokerage, and investment services.
Like other diversified banks, Alior combines interest income from loans with fee-based services. It was incorporated in 2008 and operates through Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities segments.
- Polish rate cuts pressure net interest margins and earnings
- Consumer lending growth lifts revenue but raises credit-loss risk
- Bank tax and borrower-relief measures weigh on profitability
| Net Income: 1.93b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.08k% < 20% (prev -1.20k%; Δ 123.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 3.71b > Net Income 1.93b |
| Net Debt (-1.16b) to EBITDA (2.91b): -0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.6m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.99% > 18% (prev 68.73%; Δ 5.26% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.71% > 50% (prev 6.83%; Δ 0.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.76 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.51b) |
| A: -0.79 (Total Current Assets 4.28b - Total Current Liabilities 90.1b) / Total Assets 108b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 1.28b / Total Assets 108b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 2.65b / Avg Total Assets 103b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 12.6b / Total Liabilities 95.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.85 = D |
| DSRI: 0.19 (Receivables 55.8m/246.6m, Revenue 7.94b/6.68b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 68.73% / 73.99%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.95 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 7.94b / 6.68b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.93b - CFO 3.71b) / TA 108b) |
| Beneish M = -3.63 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at PLN 142.20 with a total of 256,974 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.71%, over one month by +7.93%, over three months by +6.40% and over the past year by +47.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 136.70 (which is 3.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Alior Bank S.A. has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 9.2934
P/E Forward = 6.7843
P/S = 3.263
P/B = 1.4019
Revenue TTM = 7.94b PLN
EBIT TTM = 2.65b PLN
EBITDA TTM = 2.91b PLN
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 510.0m PLN (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 3.06b PLN (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.16b PLN (calculated: Debt 3.06b - CCE 4.23b)
Enterprise Value = 16.8b PLN (17.9b + Debt 3.06b - CCE 4.23b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.76 (Ebit TTM 2.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.51b)
EV/FCF = 4.78x (Enterprise Value 16.8b / FCF TTM 3.51b)
FCF Yield = 20.91% (FCF TTM 3.51b / Enterprise Value 16.8b)
FCF Margin = 44.19% (FCF TTM 3.51b / Revenue TTM 7.94b)
Net Margin = 24.31% (Net Income TTM 1.93b / Revenue TTM 7.94b)
Gross Margin = 73.99% ((Revenue TTM 7.94b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.79% (prev 69.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 16.8b / Total Assets 108b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 49.16% (Interest Expense 1.51b / Debt 3.06b)
Taxrate = 28.94% (786.5m / 2.72b)
NOPAT = 1.88b (EBIT 2.65b * (1 - 28.94%))
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 4.28b / Total Current Liabilities 90.1b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 3.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.40 (Net Debt -1.16b / EBITDA 2.91b)
Debt / FCF = -0.33 (Net Debt -1.16b / FCF TTM 3.51b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.87% (Net Income 1.93b / Total Assets 108b)
RoE = 15.06% (Net Income TTM 1.93b / Total Stockholder Equity 12.8b)
RoCE = 14.62% (EBIT 2.65b / Capital Employed (Total Assets 108b - Current Liab 90.1b))
RoIC = 10.62% (NOPAT 1.88b / Invested Capital 17.8b)
WACC = 11.27% (E(17.9b)/V(21.0b) * Re(7.23%) + D(3.06b)/V(21.0b) * Rd(49.16%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -17.41 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.92% ; FCFF base≈3.51b ; Y1≈3.52b ; Y5≈3.73b
[DCF] Fair Price = 306.1 (EV 38.8b - Net Debt -1.16b = Equity 40.0b / Shares 130.6m; r=11.27% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.95 | EPS CAGR: 0.73% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.94 | Revenue CAGR: 12.64% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.43 | Chg30d=-1.37% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-25.9% | GrowthRev=-0.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.14 | Chg30d=+1.11% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+20.1% | GrowthRev=+7.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)