GPW Stock Analysis: Gielda Papierow | WAR
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | WAR, Poland | Market Cap: 4.050m PLN | 12M Return: 64.4% | PLGPW0000017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.84M
EPS Trend: 94.7%
Rev. Trend: 96.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.8 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Gielda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie (GPW) operates Poland’s securities and commodity markets, including the GPW Main Market, NewConnect, Catalyst and energy markets. Its services span listing, trading, clearing, settlement and market information.
The exchange’s business model combines financial-market services with commodity trading and related infrastructure. It also provides benchmark data, including WIBID and WIBOR, and operates in areas such as energy, agricultural commodities and post-trade services. Founded in 1991, GPW is based in Warsaw, Poland.
- Higher equity turnover boosts transaction and clearing fees
- Energy-market volatility lifts commodity trading revenue
- WIBOR replacement creates uncertainty for benchmark-data income
| Net Income: 215.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.59% < 20% (prev 59.78%; Δ -19.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 217.2m > Net Income 215.1m |
| Net Debt (-469.5m) to EBITDA (306.8m): -1.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (42.0m) vs 12m ago -0.30% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.12% > 18% (prev 66.80%; Δ 12.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.41% > 50% (prev 34.73%; Δ 6.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 48.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 272.8m / Interest Expense TTM 5.64m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 586.3m - Total Current Liabilities 335.0m) / Total Assets 1.54b |
| B: 0.68 (Retained Earnings 1.06b / Total Assets 1.54b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 272.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.49b) |
| D: 2.72 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 411.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.38 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.30 (Receivables 131.1m/82.1m, Revenue 618.9m/502.2m) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 66.80% / 79.12%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.49) |
| SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 618.9m / 502.2m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 215.1m - CFO 217.2m) / TA 1.54b) |
| Beneish M = -2.69 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at PLN 99.45 with a total of 95,996 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.85%, over one month by -1.83%, over three months by -5.10% and over the past year by +64.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 92.20 (which is 7.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Gielda Papierow has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.8109
P/E Forward = 13.3156
P/S = 6.7539
P/B = 3.6409
P/EG = 3.9373
Revenue TTM = 618.9m PLN
EBIT TTM = 272.8m PLN
EBITDA TTM = 306.8m PLN
Long Term Debt = 12.4m PLN (estimated: total debt 20.2m - short term 7.83m)
Short Term Debt = 7.83m PLN (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.2m PLN (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 20.2m already included)
Net Debt = -469.5m PLN (calculated: Debt 20.2m - CCE 489.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.58b PLN (4.05b + Debt 20.2m - CCE 489.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 48.34 (Ebit TTM 272.8m / Interest Expense TTM 5.64m)
EV/FCF = 18.45x (Enterprise Value 3.58b / FCF TTM 194.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.42% (FCF TTM 194.1m / Enterprise Value 3.58b)
FCF Margin = 31.37% (FCF TTM 194.1m / Revenue TTM 618.9m)
Net Margin = 34.75% (Net Income TTM 215.1m / Revenue TTM 618.9m)
Gross Margin = 79.12% ((Revenue TTM 618.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 129.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.34% (prev 85.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.32 (Enterprise Value 3.58b / Total Assets 1.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 27.90% (Interest Expense 5.64m / Debt 20.2m)
Taxrate = 18.01% (48.1m / 267.2m)
NOPAT = 223.7m (EBIT 272.8m * (1 - 18.01%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 586.3m / Total Current Liabilities 335.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 20.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.53 (Net Debt -469.5m / EBITDA 306.8m)
Debt / FCF = -2.42 (Net Debt -469.5m / FCF TTM 194.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.39% (Net Income 215.1m / Total Assets 1.54b)
RoE = 18.93% (Net Income TTM 215.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.14b)
RoCE = 23.75% (EBIT 272.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.14b + L.T.Debt 12.4m))
RoIC = 18.87% (NOPAT 223.7m / Invested Capital 1.19b)
WACC = 7.35% (E(4.05b)/V(4.07b) * Re(7.27%) + D(20.2m)/V(4.07b) * Rd(27.90%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 7.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 34.02 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈163.6m ; Y1≈187.5m ; Y5≈276.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 110.1 (EV 4.15b - Net Debt -469.5m = Equity 4.62b / Shares 42.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.68 | EPS CAGR: 17.92% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.04 | Revenue CAGR: 14.13% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.00 | Chg30d=+19.17% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+29.0% | GrowthRev=+17.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.76 | Chg30d=+9.88% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-3.9% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)