PKN Stock Analysis: Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN | WAR
Oil & Gas Integrated | WAR, Poland | Market Cap: 181.502m PLN | 12M Return: 54.6% | PLPKN0000018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 186M
EPS Trend: -35.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -93.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Orlen S.A. is a Poland-based integrated energy company headquartered in Płock. Its operations span oil refining and wholesale, fuel and petrochemical production, power and heat generation, natural gas, upstream exploration and production, and fuel retailing. Its products include transport fuels, chemicals, plastics, fertilizers, oils, and bitumen.
The company also trades and stores gas and electricity and produces energy from conventional and renewable sources, including solar power. Orlen was founded in 1999 and adopted its current name in July 2023.
- Refining margins and crude differentials drive downstream earnings volatility
- Polish fuel-price controls and taxes pressure retail margins
- Energy-transition investment raises capital spending and execution risk
| Net Income: 21.0b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.24% < 20% (prev 3.52%; Δ 4.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 44.1b > Net Income 21.0b |
| Net Debt (22.8b) to EBITDA (49.7b): 0.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.16b) vs 12m ago 0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.41% > 18% (prev 16.87%; Δ 4.54% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 104.5% > 50% (prev 105.3%; Δ -0.73% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 16.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM 35.6b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 90.3b - Total Current Liabilities 66.8b) / Total Assets 281b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 99.1b / Total Assets 281b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 35.6b / Avg Total Assets 273b) |
| D: 1.12 (Book Value of Equity 148b / Total Liabilities 132b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.76 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 28.4b/27.5b, Revenue 285b/279b) |
| GMI: 0.79 (GM 16.87% / 21.41%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 285b / 279b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 21.0b - CFO 44.1b) / TA 281b) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 03, 2026, the stock is trading at PLN 144.30 with a total of 1,105,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.82%, over one month by -0.01%, over three months by -3.15% and over the past year by +54.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 133.60 (which is 7.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 8.6328
P/E Forward = 5.8514
P/S = 0.6355
P/B = 0.6912
P/EG = 1.1625
Revenue TTM = 285b PLN
EBIT TTM = 35.6b PLN
EBITDA TTM = 49.7b PLN
Long Term Debt = 25.0b PLN (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.86b PLN (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 54.3b PLN (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.6b
Net Debt = 22.8b PLN (calculated: Debt 54.3b - CCE 31.5b)
Enterprise Value = 204b PLN (182b + Debt 54.3b - CCE 31.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 16.50 (Ebit TTM 35.6b / Interest Expense TTM 2.16b)
EV/FCF = 15.30x (Enterprise Value 204b / FCF TTM 13.4b)
FCF Yield = 6.54% (FCF TTM 13.4b / Enterprise Value 204b)
FCF Margin = 4.68% (FCF TTM 13.4b / Revenue TTM 285b)
Net Margin = 7.37% (Net Income TTM 21.0b / Revenue TTM 285b)
Gross Margin = 21.41% ((Revenue TTM 285b - Cost of Revenue TTM 224b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.17% (prev 24.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 204b / Total Assets 281b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.98% (Interest Expense 2.16b / Debt 54.3b)
Taxrate = 27.82% (8.17b / 29.4b)
NOPAT = 25.7b (EBIT 35.6b * (1 - 27.82%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 90.3b / Total Current Liabilities 66.8b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 54.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 148b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.46 (Net Debt 22.8b / EBITDA 49.7b)
Debt / FCF = 1.71 (Net Debt 22.8b / FCF TTM 13.4b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 149b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.70% (Net Income 21.0b / Total Assets 281b)
RoE = 14.10% (Net Income TTM 21.0b / Total Stockholder Equity 149b)
RoCE = 20.48% (EBIT 35.6b / Capital Employed (Equity 149b + L.T.Debt 25.0b))
RoIC = 12.65% (NOPAT 25.7b / Invested Capital 203b)
WACC = 5.85% (E(182b)/V(236b) * Re(6.74%) + D(54.3b)/V(236b) * Rd(3.98%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -29.84 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈14.5b ; Y1≈12.7b ; Y5≈10.2b
[DCF] Fair Price = 121.9 (EV 164b - Net Debt 22.8b = Equity 142b / Shares 1.16b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -35.43 | EPS CAGR: -15.54% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -93.00 | Revenue CAGR: -11.03% | SUE: -1.09 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=6.08 | Chg30d=+7.54% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=24.72 | Chg30d=+0.76% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+147.0% | GrowthRev=+16.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.77 | Chg30d=+8.06% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-20.0% | GrowthRev=-7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +70% (up=7, down=0)