(BSP) BAE Systems - Ratings and Ratios
Combat Vehicles, Naval Ships, Combat Aircraft, Submarines, Cybersecurity
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.33% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.88% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -2.22% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 50.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 54.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.34% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.90 |
| Alpha | 28.02 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.19 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.409 |
| Beta | -0.089 |
| Beta Downside | -0.239 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.20% |
| Mean DD | 5.64% |
| Median DD | 4.72% |
Description: BSP BAE Systems December 03, 2025
Bae Systems plc (Xetra:BSP) is a global defence, aerospace and security contractor operating across the United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, Australia, Japan, Europe and other markets. It is organised into five segments – Electronic Systems, Platforms & Services, Air, Maritime and Cyber & Intelligence – each delivering a mix of hardware (e.g., combat vehicles, submarines, Eurofighter jets) and high-value services (e.g., ship repair, cyber-security for national-security customers).
Key performance indicators from FY 2023 show revenue of £25.6 bn, an order backlog of roughly £55 bn (≈ 2 years of sales) and free-cash-flow generation of £2.1 bn, supporting a dividend yield near 3.5 % and a payout ratio of ~80 %. The company’s earnings are highly correlated with sovereign defence spending; the United States defence budget is projected to exceed $800 bn in 2025 and the UK MOD has sign-posted a 5 % annual increase, both of which underpin BAE’s long-term order pipeline. A sector-wide driver is the accelerating shift toward electronic-warfare and cyber-capabilities, where BAE’s Electronic Systems and Cyber & Intelligence segments are positioned to capture higher-margin contracts.
For a deeper, data-driven view of BAE’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, analytics-focused snapshot.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (3.82b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.12b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.62pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.92% (prev 3.10%; Δ -4.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.28b > Net Income 3.82b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (7.28b) to EBITDA (7.05b) ratio: 1.03 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.96 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (3.03b) change vs 12m ago -1.56% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 54.87% (prev 48.72%; Δ 6.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 155.2% (prev 72.72%; Δ 82.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.82 (EBITDA TTM 7.05b / Interest Expense TTM 778.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.73
| (A) -0.01 = (Total Current Assets 11.16b - Total Current Liabilities 11.63b) / Total Assets 36.00b |
| (B) 0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.86b / Total Assets 36.00b |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 5.31b / Avg Total Assets 33.48b |
| (D) 0.38 = Book Value of Equity 9.59b / Total Liabilities 24.99b |
| Total Rating: 1.73 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 84.98
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.65% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.16% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.87 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.03 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 19.21)% |
| 7. RoE 34.49% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 90.12% |
| 10. EPS Trend data missing |
What is the price of BSP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.59%, over one month by -9.43%, over three months by -6.06% and over the past year by +29.52%.
Is BSP a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the BSP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | - | - |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.5 | 7.2% |
BSP Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
Market Cap GBP = 48.17b (55.12b EUR * 0.874 EUR.GBP)
P/E Trailing = 25.5068
P/E Forward = 19.4175
P/S = 2.0111
P/B = 4.6078
P/EG = 3.3622
Beta = -0.076
Revenue TTM = 51.96b GBP
EBIT TTM = 5.31b GBP
EBITDA TTM = 7.05b GBP
Long Term Debt = 7.05b GBP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 814.0m GBP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.43b GBP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.28b GBP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 55.45b GBP (48.17b + Debt 9.43b - CCE 2.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.82 (Ebit TTM 5.31b / Interest Expense TTM 778.0m)
FCF Yield = 7.65% (FCF TTM 4.24b / Enterprise Value 55.45b)
FCF Margin = 8.16% (FCF TTM 4.24b / Revenue TTM 51.96b)
Net Margin = 7.35% (Net Income TTM 3.82b / Revenue TTM 51.96b)
Gross Margin = 54.87% ((Revenue TTM 51.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.44% (prev 100.0%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.54 (Enterprise Value 55.45b / Total Assets 36.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.37% (Interest Expense 223.0m / Debt 9.43b)
Taxrate = 14.97% (178.0m / 1.19b)
NOPAT = 4.51b (EBIT 5.31b * (1 - 14.97%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 11.16b / Total Current Liabilities 11.63b)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 9.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.03 (Net Debt 7.28b / EBITDA 7.05b)
Debt / FCF = 1.71 (Net Debt 7.28b / FCF TTM 4.24b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.60% (Net Income 3.82b / Total Assets 36.00b)
RoE = 34.49% (Net Income TTM 3.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.07b)
RoCE = 29.29% (EBIT 5.31b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.07b + L.T.Debt 7.05b))
RoIC = 24.30% (NOPAT 4.51b / Invested Capital 18.58b)
WACC = 5.09% (E(48.17b)/V(57.60b) * Re(5.69%) + D(9.43b)/V(57.60b) * Rd(2.37%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 5.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈3.80b ; Y1≈2.50b ; Y5≈1.14b
Fair Price DCF = 7.69 (DCF Value 22.45b / Shares Outstanding 2.92b; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 90.12 | Revenue CAGR: 14.04% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0