DHL Stock Analysis: Deutsche Post | XETRA
Integrated Freight & Logistics | XETRA, Germany | Market Cap: 62.857m EUR | 12M Return: 50.2% | DE0005552004 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 86.5M
EPS Trend: 27.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 40.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
DHL AG (Deutsche Post DHL Group) is a Bonn-based, integrated logistics and postal services company operating through five business segments: Express, Global Forwarding, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment delivers time-definite international shipments and medical/cargo air freight via a dedicated global air network; Global Forwarding provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding; Supply Chain offers contract logistics (warehousing, transport, e-fulfillment, value-added services) across retail, automotive, technology, life sciences, and industrial end-markets; eCommerce handles domestic and cross-border parcels in selected European, Asian, and U.S. markets; and Post & Parcel Germany runs the domestic letter and parcel business, including Packstation lockers, hybrid mail, and electronic communications services. The company was incorporated in 1995 and recently rebranded from Deutsche Post AG to DHL AG in September 2026.
As a large-cap industrial classified within GICS Air Freight & Logistics, DHL benefits from the integrated carrier model-owning aircraft, hubs, ground fleets, and warehousing assets-which is uncommon in the industry and typically enables cross-selling across international express, freight forwarding, and contract logistics. The combination of cyclical freight forwarding with relatively recurring contract logistics and regulated-style domestic mail revenues generally provides some diversification across trade volumes and economic conditions.
- Express segment margins recover as Asia-Pacific trade volumes rebound
- Global Forwarding freight rates stabilize after prolonged ocean and air downcycle
- eCommerce parcel volumes grow on European B2C cross-border demand
- Post & Parcel Germany letter decline offset by parcel price increases
- Capital returns accelerate via share buybacks and dividend hikes
| Net Income: 3.72b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.74% < 20% (prev -1.34%; Δ 2.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 9.06b > Net Income 3.72b |
| Net Debt (38.5b) to EBITDA (11.9b): 3.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.12b) vs 12m ago -0.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.47% > 18% (prev 10.42%; Δ 1.05% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 121.1% > 50% (prev 124.6%; Δ -3.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.96b / Interest Expense TTM 1.41b) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 21.9b - Total Current Liabilities 21.2b) / Total Assets 73.0b |
| B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 19.4b / Total Assets 73.0b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 6.96b / Avg Total Assets 70.2b) |
| D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 22.3b / Total Liabilities 50.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.06 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 13.1b/10.6b, Revenue 85.0b/83.9b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 10.42% / 11.47%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 85.0b / 83.9b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.72b - CFO 9.06b) / TA 73.0b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 56.00 with a total of 2,020,322 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.27%, over one month by +2.87%, over three months by -1.27% and over the past year by +50.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 53.00 (which is 5.4% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Deutsche Post has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 17.227
P/E Forward = 15.528
P/S = 0.7285
P/B = 2.8541
P/EG = 2.6454
Revenue TTM = 85.0b EUR
EBIT TTM = 6.96b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 11.9b EUR
Long Term Debt = 9.05b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.35b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.8b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.8b
Net Debt = 38.5b EUR (calculated: Debt 42.8b - CCE 4.29b)
Enterprise Value = 101b EUR (62.9b + Debt 42.8b - CCE 4.29b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.94 (Ebit TTM 6.96b / Interest Expense TTM 1.41b)
EV/FCF = 16.38x (Enterprise Value 101b / FCF TTM 6.18b)
FCF Yield = 6.10% (FCF TTM 6.18b / Enterprise Value 101b)
FCF Margin = 7.28% (FCF TTM 6.18b / Revenue TTM 85.0b)
Net Margin = 4.38% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Revenue TTM 85.0b)
Gross Margin = 11.47% ((Revenue TTM 85.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 75.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.82% (prev 10.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 101b / Total Assets 73.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.30% (Interest Expense 1.41b / Debt 42.8b)
Taxrate = 29.89% (1.70b / 5.67b)
NOPAT = 4.88b (EBIT 6.96b * (1 - 29.89%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 21.9b / Total Current Liabilities 21.2b)
Debt / Equity = 1.92 (Debt 42.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 22.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.23 (Net Debt 38.5b / EBITDA 11.9b)
Debt / FCF = 6.22 (Net Debt 38.5b / FCF TTM 6.18b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.30% (Net Income 3.72b / Total Assets 73.0b)
RoE = 16.64% (Net Income TTM 3.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.4b)
RoCE = 22.18% (EBIT 6.96b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.4b + L.T.Debt 9.05b))
RoIC = 9.41% (NOPAT 4.88b / Invested Capital 51.9b)
WACC = 5.31% (E(62.9b)/V(106b) * Re(7.35%) + D(42.8b)/V(106b) * Rd(3.30%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 7.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.24 | Cagr: -2.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.89% ; FCFF base≈6.10b ; Y1≈6.30b ; Y5≈7.06b
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.23 (EV 109b - Net Debt 38.5b = Equity 70.8b / Shares 1.12b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 3.45% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 27.48 | EPS CAGR: 2.12% | SUE: 0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 40.33 | Revenue CAGR: 0.69% | SUE: 2.28 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=+3.97% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.53 | Chg30d=+1.14% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.86 | Chg30d=+1.55% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +8% (up=5, down=4)