(DHL) Deutsche Post - Ratings and Ratios
Express, Forwarding, Supply, Chain, Parcel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.97% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 94.23% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 60.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 36.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.01% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.28 |
| Alpha | 40.27 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.47 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.529 |
| Beta | 0.196 |
| Beta Downside | 0.232 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.04% |
| Mean DD | 10.11% |
| Median DD | 9.25% |
Description: DHL Deutsche Post December 03, 2025
Deutsche Post AG (XETRA:DHL) is a global mail and logistics provider operating across five segments: Express, Global Forwarding & Freight, Supply Chain, eCommerce, and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express unit delivers time-definite courier services, while Global Forwarding & Freight handles air, ocean, and overland freight with multimodal solutions. Supply Chain offers modular logistics, including warehousing and value-added services, and the eCommerce segment focuses on parcel delivery and cross-border shipments. The Post & Parcel Germany business manages domestic mail, registered and insured items, and related services.
In FY 2023 the company generated €81.8 bn in revenue, with the Express segment contributing roughly 30 % and posting an EBIT margin of 9.5 %. eCommerce parcel volumes grew 10 % year-over-year, reflecting accelerating online shopping, while the Supply Chain segment saw a 5 % revenue increase driven by higher demand for contract logistics in North America and Asia-Pacific.
Key economic drivers for DHL include global trade volumes, which affect freight forwarding demand, and fuel price volatility, which impacts operating costs across all segments. The firm is also investing heavily in automation and digital platforms to improve warehouse throughput and last-mile efficiency, aligning with broader industry trends toward hyper-connected supply chains.
For a deeper, data-driven look at DHL’s valuation and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform provides transparent tools that can help you assess the stock’s risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (3.54b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.01b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.62pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -1.95% (prev -2.26%; Δ 0.30pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 9.39b > Net Income 3.54b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (22.73b) to EBITDA (11.23b) ratio: 2.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.92 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.13b) change vs 12m ago -5.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 16.18% (prev 9.92%; Δ 6.27pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 123.1% (prev 123.9%; Δ -0.78pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.04 (EBITDA TTM 11.23b / Interest Expense TTM 1.26b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.79
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 19.61b - Total Current Liabilities 21.24b) / Total Assets 68.75b |
| (B) 0.28 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 19.15b / Total Assets 68.75b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 6.38b / Avg Total Assets 67.81b |
| (D) 0.38 = Book Value of Equity 18.01b / Total Liabilities 46.91b |
| Total Rating: 1.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.12
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.56% |
| 3. FCF Margin 7.84% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.22 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 12.91)% |
| 7. RoE 15.77% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -66.02% |
| 9. EPS Trend -74.80% |
What is the price of DHL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.81%, over one month by +10.76%, over three months by +22.27% and over the past year by +45.34%.
Is DHL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the DHL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.7 | -4.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 53.1 | 13.8% |
DHL Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
Market Cap EUR = 53.76b (53.76b EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 15.1857
P/E Forward = 13.7363
P/S = 0.6396
P/B = 2.4559
P/EG = 1.7027
Beta = 1.148
Revenue TTM = 83.47b EUR
EBIT TTM = 6.38b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 11.23b EUR
Long Term Debt = 20.32b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.96b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 26.28b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.73b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 76.49b EUR (53.76b + Debt 26.28b - CCE 3.55b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.04 (Ebit TTM 6.38b / Interest Expense TTM 1.26b)
FCF Yield = 8.56% (FCF TTM 6.55b / Enterprise Value 76.49b)
FCF Margin = 7.84% (FCF TTM 6.55b / Revenue TTM 83.47b)
Net Margin = 4.24% (Net Income TTM 3.54b / Revenue TTM 83.47b)
Gross Margin = 16.18% ((Revenue TTM 83.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 69.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.92% (prev 10.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 76.49b / Total Assets 68.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 309.0m / Debt 26.28b)
Taxrate = 29.94% (380.0m / 1.27b)
NOPAT = 4.47b (EBIT 6.38b * (1 - 29.94%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 19.61b / Total Current Liabilities 21.24b)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 26.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 21.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.02 (Net Debt 22.73b / EBITDA 11.23b)
Debt / FCF = 3.47 (Net Debt 22.73b / FCF TTM 6.55b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.43b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.15% (Net Income 3.54b / Total Assets 68.75b)
RoE = 15.77% (Net Income TTM 3.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.43b)
RoCE = 14.92% (EBIT 6.38b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.43b + L.T.Debt 20.32b))
RoIC = 17.71% (NOPAT 4.47b / Invested Capital 25.23b)
WACC = 4.80% (E(53.76b)/V(80.04b) * Re(6.74%) + D(26.28b)/V(80.04b) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 6.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.07%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.34% ; FCFE base≈5.77b ; Y1≈5.79b ; Y5≈6.19b
Fair Price DCF = 96.71 (DCF Value 109.49b / Shares Outstanding 1.13b; 5y FCF grow -0.15% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -74.80 | EPS CAGR: -15.65% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: -66.02 | Revenue CAGR: -3.91% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.69 | Chg30d=-0.008 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.33 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+8.6% | Growth Revenue=+2.3%