(GUI) Diageo - Overview
Stock: Beer, Scotch, Gin, Vodka, Rum
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.06% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.28% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 96.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.07% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.86 |
| Alpha | -25.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.015 |
| Beta Downside | 0.067 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 54.00% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.35 |
Description: GUI Diageo January 29, 2026
Diageo plc (XETRA:GUI) is a global leader in alcoholic-beverage production, marketing and distribution, operating across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America & the Caribbean, and Africa. Its portfolio spans beer, Scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueurs, whisky (Irish, Canadian, US, Indian, Chinese), tequila, brandy, Chinese white spirit, ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic drinks, with marquee brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Baileys, Crown Royal, Don Julio, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang and McDowell’s.
In FY 2023 Diageo reported revenue of € 15.9 billion, a 5.2 % increase year-on-year, driven primarily by an 8 % rise in premium spirit sales and strong growth in emerging markets that contributed roughly 30 % of total volume expansion. The company maintained an adjusted operating margin of 20.1 % and generated € 2.3 billion of free cash flow, supporting a dividend yield near 2.1 % and a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.2×. Key economic sensitivities include consumer discretionary spending trends, currency headwinds (particularly a weaker euro versus the dollar) and the ongoing shift toward low- and no-alcohol offerings, which now account for over 6 % of total volume.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore the detailed valuation model on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income: 3.67b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.57% < 20% (prev 25.05%; Δ -0.49% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 5.85b > Net Income 3.67b |
| Net Debt (22.20b) to EBITDA (8.44b): 2.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.23b) vs 12m ago -0.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.68% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 5908 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 64.72% > 50% (prev 46.16%; Δ 18.56% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.19 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 8.44b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b) |
Altman Z'' 2.95
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 17.50b - Total Current Liabilities 10.71b) / Total Assets 49.32b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 10.27b / Total Assets 49.32b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 6.65b / Avg Total Assets 42.68b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 11.16b / Total Liabilities 36.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.95 = A |
Beneish M -2.71
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 3.13b/2.12b, Revenue 27.62b/16.63b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 59.68% / 60.49%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.48) |
| SGI: 1.66 (Revenue 27.62b / 16.63b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 3.67b - CFO 5.85b) / TA 49.32b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.71 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of GUI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.91%, over one month by +6.56%, over three months by +6.01% and over the past year by -22.00%.
Is GUI a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the GUI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.6 | 16.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.7 | -22.8% |
GUI Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
Market Cap USD = 51.17b (43.36b EUR * 1.1801 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.1591
P/E Forward = 10.3627
P/S = 2.1416
P/B = 4.5382
P/EG = 0.5922
Revenue TTM = 27.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 8.44b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.04b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.20b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 72.92b USD (51.17b + Debt 24.40b - CCE 2.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.19 (Ebit TTM 6.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.28b)
EV/FCF = 20.82x (Enterprise Value 72.92b / FCF TTM 3.50b)
FCF Yield = 4.80% (FCF TTM 3.50b / Enterprise Value 72.92b)
FCF Margin = 12.68% (FCF TTM 3.50b / Revenue TTM 27.62b)
Net Margin = 13.29% (Net Income TTM 3.67b / Revenue TTM 27.62b)
Gross Margin = 59.68% ((Revenue TTM 27.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.14b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.17% (prev 61.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.48 (Enterprise Value 72.92b / Total Assets 49.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.62% (Interest Expense 884.0m / Debt 24.40b)
Taxrate = 39.32% (300.0m / 763.0m)
NOPAT = 4.04b (EBIT 6.65b * (1 - 39.32%))
Current Ratio = 1.63 (Total Current Assets 17.50b / Total Current Liabilities 10.71b)
Debt / Equity = 2.20 (Debt 24.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.63 (Net Debt 22.20b / EBITDA 8.44b)
Debt / FCF = 6.34 (Net Debt 22.20b / FCF TTM 3.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.60% (Net Income 3.67b / Total Assets 49.32b)
RoE = 37.30% (Net Income TTM 3.67b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.84b)
RoCE = 21.70% (EBIT 6.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.84b + L.T.Debt 20.82b))
RoIC = 13.02% (NOPAT 4.04b / Invested Capital 31.00b)
WACC = 4.75% (E(51.17b)/V(75.57b) * Re(5.97%) + D(24.40b)/V(75.57b) * Rd(3.62%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 5.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.07% ; FCFF base≈3.02b ; Y1≈2.95b ; Y5≈2.96b
Fair Price DCF = 29.84 (EV 88.56b - Net Debt 22.20b = Equity 66.36b / Shares 2.22b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -3.63% → 2.90% )
Revenue Correlation: 66.97 | Revenue CAGR: 36.25% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0