HFG Stock Analysis: HelloFresh SE | XETRA
Grocery Stores | XETRA, Germany | Market Cap: 434m EUR | 12M Return: -47.1% | DE000A161408 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 2.92M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -88.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HelloFresh SE (HFG) is a Germany-based meal kit provider founded in 2011 and headquartered in Berlin, operating across the United States, Canada, and other international markets. The company delivers meal kits along with add-on products such as soups, desserts, bakery items, salads, and ready-to-eat meals through a portfolio of brands that includes HelloFresh, EveryPlate, Factor, Green Chef, Chefs Plate, Good Chop, Pets Table, and YouFoodz. The business operates on a direct-to-consumer subscription model, shipping pre-portioned ingredients and recipes to customers on a recurring basis. It is classified within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector under the Restaurants sub-industry, a grouping that reflects the broader meal-solutions and food delivery competitive landscape, which also includes grocery retailers, third-party delivery platforms, and other meal kit operators.
- US meal kit subscriber growth drives consolidated revenue
- Active customer acquisition costs pressure segment margins
- Ready-to-eat Factor brand scales higher-margin prepared meals
- European inflationary environment increases input and packaging costs
- Competition intensifies from Blue Apron and grocery delivery rivals
| Net Income: -34.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.94% < 20% (prev -1.51%; Δ -2.44% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 213.6m > Net Income -34.8m |
| Net Debt (1.03b) to EBITDA (288.0m): 3.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.69 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (148.8m) vs 12m ago -9.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.07% > 18% (prev 83.73%; Δ -27.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 284.6% > 50% (prev 311.9%; Δ -27.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 11.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.1m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 569.7m - Total Current Liabilities 820.3m) / Total Assets 2.14b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 31.3m / Total Assets 2.14b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 11.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.23b) |
| D: 0.42 (Book Value of Equity 633.5m / Total Liabilities 1.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.25 = B |
| DSRI: 1.39 (Receivables 20.6m/16.9m, Revenue 6.36b/7.27b) |
| GMI: 1.49 (GM 83.73% / 56.07%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 6.36b / 7.27b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI -34.8m - CFO 213.6m) / TA 2.14b) |
| Beneish M = -2.30 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 06, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 3.33 with a total of 3,699,854 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +20.75%, over one month by +43.03%, over three months by -1.24% and over the past year by -47.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.10 (which is 6.9% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
HelloFresh SE has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 0.0682
P/B = 0.632
Revenue TTM = 6.36b EUR
EBIT TTM = 11.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 288.0m EUR
Long Term Debt = 106.0m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 166.4m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.28b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 529.9m
Net Debt = 1.03b EUR (calculated: Debt 1.28b - CCE 246.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.47b EUR (433.6m + Debt 1.28b - CCE 246.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.24 (Ebit TTM 11.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.1m)
EV/FCF = 11.09x (Enterprise Value 1.47b / FCF TTM 132.3m)
FCF Yield = 9.02% (FCF TTM 132.3m / Enterprise Value 1.47b)
FCF Margin = 2.08% (FCF TTM 132.3m / Revenue TTM 6.36b)
Net Margin = -0.55% (Net Income TTM -34.8m / Revenue TTM 6.36b)
Gross Margin = 56.07% ((Revenue TTM 6.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.09% (prev 55.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 1.47b / Total Assets 2.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.68% (Interest Expense 47.1m / Debt 1.28b)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 8.47m (EBIT 11.3m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.69 (Total Current Assets 569.7m / Total Current Liabilities 820.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.02 (Debt 1.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 633.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.59 (Net Debt 1.03b / EBITDA 288.0m)
Debt / FCF = 7.81 (Net Debt 1.03b / FCF TTM 132.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 641.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.56% (Net Income -34.8m / Total Assets 2.14b)
RoE = -5.43% (Net Income TTM -34.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 641.2m)
RoCE = 1.51% (EBIT 11.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 641.2m + L.T.Debt 106.0m))
RoIC = 0.69% (NOPAT 8.47m / Invested Capital 1.24b)
WACC = 4.03% (E(433.6m)/V(1.71b) * Re(7.77%) + D(1.28b)/V(1.71b) * Rd(3.68%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.41 | Cagr: -6.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈177.2m ; Y1≈155.4m ; Y5≈125.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.77 (EV 2.02b - Net Debt 1.03b = Equity 981.8m / Shares 145.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -88.10 | Revenue CAGR: -6.62% | SUE: 0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.35 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-18.69% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+163.7% | GrowthRev=-10.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-18.98% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+29.3% | GrowthRev=-3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)