(HFG) HelloFresh SE - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: XETRA •
Country: Germany •
Currency: EUR •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: DE000A161408
Meal Kits, Add-Ons, Ready Meals, Pet Food, Seasonal Boxes
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 66.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 90.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.23 |
| Alpha | -62.68 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.45 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.531 |
| Beta | 0.280 |
| Beta Downside | 0.599 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.76% |
| Mean DD | 56.74% |
| Median DD | 68.34% |
Description: HFG HelloFresh SE November 13, 2025
HelloFresh SE (XETRA:HFG) is a Berlin-based global meal-kit provider that delivers ready-to-cook recipes and a range of add-on products-including soups, snacks, fruit boxes, desserts, ready-to-eat meals, and seasonal kits-through its HelloFresh, EveryPlate, Factor, Green Chef, Chefs Plate, Good Chop, The Pets Table, and YouFoodz brands. The company serves customers in 15+ markets across North America, Europe, and Oceania, offering options such as premium meals, protein swaps, double portions, and extra recipes.
Key operational metrics that investors watch include a subscriber base of roughly 7.5 million active customers (2023), an average order value of about €45, and a gross margin near 30 % after accounting for logistics and packaging costs. The business is sensitive to macro-economic factors such as inflation-driven food price volatility and consumer discretionary spending, while its growth is propelled by the broader shift toward convenient, home-cooked meals and the lingering habit changes from the COVID-19 pandemic.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of HelloFresh’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find the analytical tools on ValueRay useful for extending your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (-188.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 421.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 9.44pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -2.63% (prev -3.65%; Δ 1.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.28 (>3.0%) and CFO 624.1m > Net Income -188.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (427.6m) to EBITDA (303.5m) ratio: 1.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.79 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (151.3m) change vs 12m ago -7.92% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 85.20% (prev 59.80%; Δ 25.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 302.8% (prev 316.2%; Δ -13.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -1.86 (EBITDA TTM 303.5m / Interest Expense TTM 60.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.06
| (A) -0.08 = (Total Current Assets 684.3m - Total Current Liabilities 869.0m) / Total Assets 2.20b |
| (B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 328.9m / Total Assets 2.20b |
| (C) -0.05 = EBIT TTM -113.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.32b |
| (D) 0.32 = Book Value of Equity 495.8m / Total Liabilities 1.56b |
| Total Rating: -0.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.24
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 17.55% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.77% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.43 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.41 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -17.07)% |
| 7. RoE -25.01% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -18.31% |
| 9. EPS Trend -60.11% |
What is the price of HFG shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at EUR 5.62 with a total of 554,543 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.45%, over one month by -4.52%, over three months by -26.08% and over the past year by -54.91%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.45%, over one month by -4.52%, over three months by -26.08% and over the past year by -54.91%.
Is HFG a buy, sell or hold?
HelloFresh SE has no consensus analysts rating.
What are the forecasts/targets for the HFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.2 | 81% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.5 | -37.9% |
HFG Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
Market Cap USD = 1.07b (914.8m EUR * 1.1701 EUR.USD)
Market Cap EUR = 914.8m (914.8m EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 0.1303
P/B = 1.3277
Beta = 0.318
Revenue TTM = 7.02b EUR
EBIT TTM = -113.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 303.5m EUR
Long Term Debt = 178.5m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.5m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 914.3m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 427.6m EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 1.51b EUR (914.8m + Debt 914.3m - CCE 321.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.86 (Ebit TTM -113.0m / Interest Expense TTM 60.8m)
FCF Yield = 17.55% (FCF TTM 264.7m / Enterprise Value 1.51b)
FCF Margin = 3.77% (FCF TTM 264.7m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Net Margin = -2.68% (Net Income TTM -188.0m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Gross Margin = 85.20% ((Revenue TTM 7.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.63% (prev 26.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 1.51b / Total Assets 2.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.52% (Interest Expense 32.2m / Debt 914.3m)
Taxrate = -9.27% (negative due to tax credits) (4.20m / -45.3m)
NOPAT = -123.5m (EBIT -113.0m * (1 - -9.27%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 684.3m / Total Current Liabilities 869.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.43 (Debt 914.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 638.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.41 (Net Debt 427.6m / EBITDA 303.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.62 (Net Debt 427.6m / FCF TTM 264.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 751.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.55% (Net Income -188.0m / Total Assets 2.20b)
RoE = -25.01% (Net Income TTM -188.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 751.6m)
RoCE = -12.15% (EBIT -113.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 751.6m + L.T.Debt 178.5m))
RoIC = -11.62% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -123.5m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(914.8m)/V(1.83b) * Re(7.05%) + D(914.3m)/V(1.83b) * Rd(3.52%) * (1-Tc(-0.09)))
Discount Rate = 7.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.97%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈184.2m ; Y1≈120.9m ; Y5≈55.3m
Fair Price DCF = 6.90 (DCF Value 1.09b / Shares Outstanding 157.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -60.11 | EPS CAGR: -21.67% | SUE: -1.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -18.31 | Revenue CAGR: 0.03% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+207.7% | Growth Revenue=-1.0%
Market Cap EUR = 914.8m (914.8m EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 0.1303
P/B = 1.3277
Beta = 0.318
Revenue TTM = 7.02b EUR
EBIT TTM = -113.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 303.5m EUR
Long Term Debt = 178.5m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.5m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 914.3m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 427.6m EUR (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 1.51b EUR (914.8m + Debt 914.3m - CCE 321.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.86 (Ebit TTM -113.0m / Interest Expense TTM 60.8m)
FCF Yield = 17.55% (FCF TTM 264.7m / Enterprise Value 1.51b)
FCF Margin = 3.77% (FCF TTM 264.7m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Net Margin = -2.68% (Net Income TTM -188.0m / Revenue TTM 7.02b)
Gross Margin = 85.20% ((Revenue TTM 7.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.63% (prev 26.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 1.51b / Total Assets 2.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.52% (Interest Expense 32.2m / Debt 914.3m)
Taxrate = -9.27% (negative due to tax credits) (4.20m / -45.3m)
NOPAT = -123.5m (EBIT -113.0m * (1 - -9.27%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 684.3m / Total Current Liabilities 869.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.43 (Debt 914.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 638.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.41 (Net Debt 427.6m / EBITDA 303.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.62 (Net Debt 427.6m / FCF TTM 264.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 751.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.55% (Net Income -188.0m / Total Assets 2.20b)
RoE = -25.01% (Net Income TTM -188.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 751.6m)
RoCE = -12.15% (EBIT -113.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 751.6m + L.T.Debt 178.5m))
RoIC = -11.62% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -123.5m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(914.8m)/V(1.83b) * Re(7.05%) + D(914.3m)/V(1.83b) * Rd(3.52%) * (1-Tc(-0.09)))
Discount Rate = 7.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.97%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈184.2m ; Y1≈120.9m ; Y5≈55.3m
Fair Price DCF = 6.90 (DCF Value 1.09b / Shares Outstanding 157.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -60.11 | EPS CAGR: -21.67% | SUE: -1.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -18.31 | Revenue CAGR: 0.03% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+207.7% | Growth Revenue=-1.0%