HFG Stock Analysis: HelloFresh SE | XETRA
Restaurants | XETRA, Germany | Market Cap: 550m EUR | 12M Return: -57.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.45M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -82.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HelloFresh SE is a Germany-based meal kit provider founded in 2011 and headquartered in Berlin. The company delivers pre-portioned ingredients and recipes directly to consumers, primarily in the United States and Canada, under multiple brands including HelloFresh, EveryPlate, Green Chef, Factor, Chefs Plate, YouFoodz, Good Chop, and Pets Table. Its product range has expanded beyond traditional meal kits to include ready-to-eat meals and add-on items such as soups, salads, and desserts.
The company operates a direct-to-consumer subscription model, which is the standard distribution approach in the meal kit industry. Its portfolio spans both cooking-required kits and fully prepared meals, with brands like Factor targeting the ready-to-eat segment, reflecting the industrys broader shift toward convenience-focused prepared food offerings. HelloFresh is listed on the XETRA exchange in Frankfurt and classified within the GICS Restaurants sub-industry under Consumer Discretionary.
- US active customers decline as meal kit demand normalizes post-pandemic
- Factor ready-to-eat segment drives revenue growth and margin expansion
- Marketing efficiency and cost cuts support path to sustained profitability
| Net Income: -24.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.46% < 20% (prev -1.94%; Δ -1.52% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 294.0m > Net Income -24.3m |
| Net Debt (445.2m) to EBITDA (297.3m): 1.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.6m) vs 12m ago -10.34% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.68% > 18% (prev 89.98%; Δ -41.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 274.0% > 50% (prev 294.9%; Δ -20.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM 36.5m / Interest Expense TTM 71.3m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 605.7m - Total Current Liabilities 830.5m) / Total Assets 2.20b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 28.5m / Total Assets 2.20b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 36.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.37b) |
| D: 0.39 (Book Value of Equity 620.5m / Total Liabilities 1.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.11 = B |
| DSRI: 1.39 (Receivables 20.2m/16.8m, Revenue 6.51b/7.52b) |
| GMI: 1.85 (GM 89.98% / 48.68%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 6.51b / 7.52b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -24.3m - CFO 294.0m) / TA 2.20b) |
| Beneish M = -1.98 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 3.73 with a total of 965,354 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.25%, over one month by -11.48%, over three months by -4.73% and over the past year by -57.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.40 (which is 8.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
HelloFresh SE has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 0.0846
P/B = 0.9296
Revenue TTM = 6.51b EUR
EBIT TTM = 36.5m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 297.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 178.0m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 700k EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 708.6m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 529.9m
Net Debt = 445.2m EUR (calculated: Debt 708.6m - CCE 263.4m)
Enterprise Value = 995.6m EUR (550.4m + Debt 708.6m - CCE 263.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.51 (Ebit TTM 36.5m / Interest Expense TTM 71.3m)
EV/FCF = 5.01x (Enterprise Value 995.6m / FCF TTM 198.9m)
FCF Yield = 19.98% (FCF TTM 198.9m / Enterprise Value 995.6m)
FCF Margin = 3.06% (FCF TTM 198.9m / Revenue TTM 6.51b)
Net Margin = -0.37% (Net Income TTM -24.3m / Revenue TTM 6.51b)
Gross Margin = 48.68% ((Revenue TTM 6.51b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.89% (prev 56.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.45 (Enterprise Value 995.6m / Total Assets 2.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.06% (Interest Expense 71.3m / Debt 708.6m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 27.4m (EBIT 36.5m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 605.7m / Total Current Liabilities 830.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.14 (Debt 708.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 620.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.50 (Net Debt 445.2m / EBITDA 297.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.24 (Net Debt 445.2m / FCF TTM 198.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 662.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.02% (Net Income -24.3m / Total Assets 2.20b)
RoE = -3.67% (Net Income TTM -24.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 662.9m)
RoCE = 4.34% (EBIT 36.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 662.9m + L.T.Debt 178.0m))
RoIC = 2.48% (NOPAT 27.4m / Invested Capital 1.11b)
WACC = 9.18% (E(550.4m)/V(1.26b) * Re(11.28%) + D(708.6m)/V(1.26b) * Rd(10.06%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 11.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.90 | Cagr: -6.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.42% ; FCFF base≈194.3m ; Y1≈205.0m ; Y5≈239.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.44 (EV 3.23b - Net Debt 445.2m = Equity 2.79b / Shares 143.3m; r=9.18% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 6.14% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -82.59 | Revenue CAGR: -5.12% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=-91.39% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=+4.26% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+9.44% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+189.1% | GrowthRev=-6.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+6.47% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+33.5% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)