(RIO1) Rio Tinto - Ratings and Ratios
Iron, Copper, Aluminium, Bauxite, Lithium
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.38 |
| Alpha | 5.73 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.436 |
| Beta | 0.194 |
| Beta Downside | 0.417 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.73% |
| Mean DD | 11.62% |
| Median DD | 11.90% |
Description: RIO1 Rio Tinto September 26, 2025
Rio Tinto Group (XETRA: RIO1) is a globally diversified miner that extracts, processes, and markets a broad portfolio of mineral resources across four operating segments: Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper, and Minerals.
**Iron Ore** – The segment runs large-scale open-pit mines and associated salt and gypsum operations in Western Australia. In FY 2024 the segment delivered ≈ 300 Mt of iron ore, contributing roughly ≈ 55 % of total group revenue, and benefitted from a 2023-24 average spot price of US $115/t, well above the 5-year median.
**Aluminium** – This business covers the full value chain from bauxite mining to alumina refining, primary smelting, and recycling. Production in FY 2024 was about ≈ 3.3 Mt of aluminium, with a net cash-flow margin of ≈ 12 % driven by strong demand in automotive lightweighting and renewable-energy infrastructure.
**Copper** – Rio Tinto extracts copper alongside gold, silver, molybdenum and other by-products, and conducts exploration to replenish reserves. The segment produced ≈ 1.7 Mt of copper in FY 2024, a 7 % increase YoY, while copper prices averaged US $9,200/t, reflecting tight supply and accelerating electrification trends.
**Minerals** – This diversified unit processes borates, titanium-dioxide feedstock, iron concentrate/pellets, and diamonds, and is actively developing battery-material projects such as lithium-hydroxide in Western Australia. The segment’s contribution to earnings is modest (≈ 5 % of total) but its growth potential is tied to the expanding EV and renewable-energy storage markets.
Rio Tinto’s asset base includes both open-pit and underground mines, integrated refineries, smelters, processing plants, and a dedicated logistics network of power, rail, and shipping facilities, giving it a high degree of operational control and cost efficiency.
Founded in 1873, the company is headquartered in London and trades under the GICS sub-industry “Diversified Metals & Mining.” As of the latest reporting, its market-cap is roughly US $150 bn, with a dividend yield of ≈ 5 % and a forward-looking capex plan of US $15 bn aimed at expanding copper and battery-material capacity.
Given the material impact of macro-level commodity cycles on Rio Tinto’s segments, a deeper dive into its segment-specific cash-flow forecasts and the sensitivity of its earnings to iron-ore and copper price swings is advisable; ValueRay’s granular analyst tools can help you model those scenarios more precisely.
RIO1 Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 118,755m |
| Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| IPO / Inception | |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -1.38% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
RIO1 Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.02% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 10.21% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.27% |
| Payout Consistency | 87.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 63.4% |
RIO1 Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 3.35% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.13 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.29 |
| Current Volume | 58.8k |
| Average Volume | 63.1k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (21.02b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 6.47b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.54pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6.69% (prev 12.57%; Δ -5.88pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 (>3.0%) and CFO 30.71b > Net Income 21.02b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (14.62b) to EBITDA (41.96b) ratio: 0.35 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.53 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.64b) change vs 12m ago 0.46% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 42.51% (prev 37.01%; Δ 5.50pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 98.83% (prev 84.28%; Δ 14.55pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 16.09 (EBITDA TTM 41.96b / Interest Expense TTM 1.93b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.30
| (A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 20.96b - Total Current Liabilities 13.74b) / Total Assets 120.81b |
| (B) 0.36 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 43.38b / Total Assets 120.81b |
| (C) 0.28 = EBIT TTM 30.98b / Avg Total Assets 109.18b |
| (D) 0.80 = Book Value of Equity 46.80b / Total Liabilities 58.84b |
| Total Rating: 4.30 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.90
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt = 3.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 9.22% = 4.61 |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.37% = 2.84 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.41 = 2.42 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.35 = 2.41 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 23.66)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 37.66% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -85.08% = -6.38 |
| 10. EPS Trend data missing |
What is the price of RIO1 shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.19%, over one month by +4.34%, over three months by +16.74% and over the past year by +13.04%.
Is Rio Tinto a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of RIO1 is around 53.36 EUR . This means that RIO1 is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -12.55%.
Is RIO1 a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the RIO1 price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | - | - |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 58 | -4.9% |
RIO1 Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 1970
Market Cap USD = 118.75b (102.46b EUR * 1.159 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.0956
P/E Forward = 11.1483
P/S = 1.907
P/B = 1.8565
Beta = 0.605
Revenue TTM = 107.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 30.98b USD
EBITDA TTM = 41.96b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 875.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.64b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.62b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 133.06b USD (118.75b + Debt 23.64b - CCE 9.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 16.09 (Ebit TTM 30.98b / Interest Expense TTM 1.93b)
FCF Yield = 9.22% (FCF TTM 12.27b / Enterprise Value 133.06b)
FCF Margin = 11.37% (FCF TTM 12.27b / Revenue TTM 107.91b)
Net Margin = 19.48% (Net Income TTM 21.02b / Revenue TTM 107.91b)
Gross Margin = 42.51% ((Revenue TTM 107.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 62.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.62% (prev 80.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 133.06b / Total Assets 120.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.25% (Interest Expense 296.0m / Debt 23.64b)
Taxrate = 32.67% (2.20b / 6.74b)
NOPAT = 20.86b (EBIT 30.98b * (1 - 32.67%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 20.96b / Total Current Liabilities 13.74b)
Debt / Equity = 0.41 (Debt 23.64b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 58.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.35 (Net Debt 14.62b / EBITDA 41.96b)
Debt / FCF = 1.19 (Net Debt 14.62b / FCF TTM 12.27b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 55.82b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.40% (Net Income 21.02b / Total Assets 120.81b)
RoE = 37.66% (Net Income TTM 21.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 55.82b)
RoCE = 40.02% (EBIT 30.98b / Capital Employed (Equity 55.82b + L.T.Debt 21.58b))
RoIC = 29.42% (NOPAT 20.86b / Invested Capital 70.91b)
WACC = 5.75% (E(118.75b)/V(142.39b) * Re(6.73%) + D(23.64b)/V(142.39b) * Rd(1.25%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 6.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.38% ; FCFE base≈12.70b ; Y1≈10.62b ; Y5≈7.87b
Fair Price DCF = 115.3 (DCF Value 144.65b / Shares Outstanding 1.25b; 5y FCF grow -19.83% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: -85.08 | Revenue CAGR: -9.87% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0