(SFQ) SAF Holland - Ratings and Ratios
Axles, Suspension, Fifth Wheels, Coupling, Braking
SFQ EPS (Earnings per Share)
SFQ Revenue
Description: SFQ SAF Holland
SAF-Holland SE is a leading global supplier of innovative chassis-related assemblies and components for the commercial vehicle industry, serving original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the globe. With a rich history dating back to 1881, the company has established itself as a trusted partner, offering a comprehensive portfolio of products, including axle and air suspension systems, fifth wheels, and braking systems, under renowned brands such as SAF, Holland, and Neway.
The companys extensive product range is designed to meet the evolving needs of the automotive industry, with a focus on improving safety, efficiency, and sustainability. SAF-Hollands global footprint spans across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific, enabling the company to capitalize on emerging trends and growth opportunities in the commercial vehicle market.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has been exhibiting a consolidating trend, with the short-term moving averages (SMA20 and SMA50) indicating a potential breakout. The Average True Range (ATR) suggests a moderate level of volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks for traders. Given the current price action and technical indicators, a potential target price could be around €17.50, representing a 12% upside from the current level.
Fundamentally, SAF-Hollands market capitalization stands at €743.56 million, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.62, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to its peers. The companys return on equity (RoE) of 12.65% suggests a strong ability to generate profits for shareholders. Based on these fundamental metrics and assuming a stable industry outlook, we forecast a 15% annual earnings growth rate for the next two years, potentially driving the stock price to €20 by the end of 2024.
Combining both technical and fundamental analysis, we expect SAF-Hollands stock to outperform in the near term, driven by its strong product portfolio, global presence, and improving industry trends. As the company continues to innovate and expand its offerings, we anticipate a re-rating of the stock, potentially leading to a higher valuation multiple.
SFQ Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 760m |
| Sub-Industry | Automotive Parts & Equipment |
| IPO / Inception |
SFQ Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 71.7% |
| Fundamental | 59.1% |
| Dividend Rating | 76.0% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -8.23% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
SFQ Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 5.93% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 13.67% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 55.84% |
| Payout Consistency | 50.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 55.9% |
SFQ Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -90.8% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 52.3% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 76.3% |
| CAGR 5y | 29.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.90 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 2.98 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.13 |
| Alpha | -20.54 |
| Beta | 1.800 |
| Volatility | 27.75% |
| Current Volume | 38k |
| Average Volume 20d | 42.2k |
| Stop Loss | 13.9 (-3.1%) |
| Signal | -0.21 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (51.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 105.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.48pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 16.80% (prev 22.01%; Δ -5.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 168.6m > Net Income 51.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (574.5m) to EBITDA (254.3m) ratio: 2.26 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.54 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (45.8m) change vs 12m ago 0.90% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 22.70% (prev 21.25%; Δ 1.44pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 103.6% (prev 121.4%; Δ -17.82pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.14 (EBITDA TTM 254.3m / Interest Expense TTM 76.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.51
| (A) 0.18 = (Total Current Assets 842.8m - Total Current Liabilities 547.9m) / Total Assets 1.67b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 236.4m / Total Assets 1.67b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 163.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.70b |
| (D) 0.23 = Book Value of Equity 281.8m / Total Liabilities 1.21b |
| Total Rating: 2.51 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.12
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.94% = 4.47 |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.20% = 1.55 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.72 = 1.17 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.26 = -0.51 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.88)% = 2.35 |
| 7. RoE 10.20% = 0.85 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 0.07% = 0.01 |
| 9. EPS Trend -15.27% = -0.76 |
What is the price of SFQ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.78%, over one month by -7.24%, over three months by -18.43% and over the past year by +5.40%.
Is SAF Holland a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of SFQ is around 15.64 EUR . This means that SFQ is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 9.07%.
Is SFQ a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the SFQ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.5 | 50.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.1 | 19.5% |
SFQ Fundamental Data Overview
Market Cap EUR = 654.6m (654.6m EUR * 1.0 EUR.EUR)
P/E Trailing = 12.875
P/S = 0.3728
P/B = 1.4262
Beta = 1.8
Revenue TTM = 1.76b EUR
EBIT TTM = 163.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 254.3m EUR
Long Term Debt = 452.9m EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 254.8m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 801.2m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 574.5m EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.22b EUR (654.6m + Debt 801.2m - CCE 237.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.14 (Ebit TTM 163.0m / Interest Expense TTM 76.3m)
FCF Yield = 8.94% (FCF TTM 108.9m / Enterprise Value 1.22b)
FCF Margin = 6.20% (FCF TTM 108.9m / Revenue TTM 1.76b)
Net Margin = 2.91% (Net Income TTM 51.1m / Revenue TTM 1.76b)
Gross Margin = 22.70% ((Revenue TTM 1.76b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.36b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.45% (prev 23.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 1.22b / Total Assets 1.67b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.49% (Interest Expense 19.9m / Debt 801.2m)
Taxrate = 38.88% (6.79m / 17.5m)
NOPAT = 99.6m (EBIT 163.0m * (1 - 38.88%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 842.8m / Total Current Liabilities 547.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.72 (Debt 801.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 464.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.26 (Net Debt 574.5m / EBITDA 254.3m)
Debt / FCF = 5.28 (Net Debt 574.5m / FCF TTM 108.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 501.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.05% (Net Income 51.1m / Total Assets 1.67b)
RoE = 10.20% (Net Income TTM 51.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 501.2m)
RoCE = 17.08% (EBIT 163.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 501.2m + L.T.Debt 452.9m))
RoIC = 8.40% (NOPAT 99.6m / Invested Capital 1.19b)
WACC = 6.53% (E(654.6m)/V(1.46b) * Re(12.65%) + D(801.2m)/V(1.46b) * Rd(2.49%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 12.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.54%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.83% ; FCFE base≈127.0m ; Y1≈144.2m ; Y5≈197.2m
Fair Price DCF = 38.84 (DCF Value 1.76b / Shares Outstanding 45.4m; 5y FCF grow 15.80% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -15.27 | EPS CAGR: -13.71% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 0.07 | Revenue CAGR: 3.51% | SUE: 1.73 | # QB: 1