(TRDL) Invesco US Treasury Bond - Ratings and Ratios

The Invesco US Treasury Bond 10+ Year UCITS ETF USD Dist EUR, traded on XETRA under the ticker symbol TRDL, is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Morningstar US Govt Bond TR USD index. This ETF is designed to provide investors with exposure to US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10 years or more, offering a regular income stream through its distributing share class.

As a USD Government Bond ETF, TRDL is likely to be sensitive to changes in US interest rates and government bond yields. The funds investment objective is to replicate the performance of its underlying index, which comprises US Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 10 years or more. This makes it a potentially useful tool for investors seeking to gain exposure to the long-end of the US Treasury yield curve.

Analyzing the available technical data, the ETFs price is currently at 3.67, below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA20, SMA50, SMA200) of 3.70, 3.85, and 3.98, respectively. This suggests a downtrend in the ETFs price. The Average True Range (ATR) of 0.06, equivalent to 1.52% of the current price, indicates relatively low volatility. Given the 52-week high and low of 4.20 and 3.61, respectively, the ETF is currently trading near the lower end of its recent range.

From a fundamental perspective, the ETFs assets under management (AUM) stand at 145.48 million EUR, indicating a relatively modest size. However, this does not necessarily impact its ability to track the underlying index. The funds focus on US Treasury bonds with maturities of 10+ years makes it susceptible to interest rate risk. If US interest rates were to rise, the value of the ETFs holdings could decline, negatively impacting its price.

Forecasting the ETFs future performance based on the available technical and fundamental data, a potential scenario could unfold as follows: If US interest rates continue to rise, the ETFs price may face downward pressure due to the inverse relationship between bond yields and prices. Conversely, if interest rates stabilize or decline, the ETF could benefit from the resulting decrease in bond yields, potentially driving its price upwards. Given the current downtrend and proximity to the 52-week low, a potential support level, the ETF may experience a bounce or consolidation in the near term. However, a sustained recovery would likely depend on a shift in interest rate expectations or a significant change in market sentiment towards long-dated US Treasuries.