NESTE Stock Analysis: Neste Oil | HE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | HE, Finland | Market Cap: 21.089m EUR | 12M Return: 60.2% | FI0009013296 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 37.8M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -50.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company that produces and markets renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, alongside conventional oil products such as diesel, gasoline, marine and aviation fuels, and specialty fuels. It operates through three segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, and Marketing & Services, serving customers across Finland, the Nordic region, the Baltic Rim, the rest of Europe, and the United States. The company sells to a broad range of customers including fuel retailers, distributors, oil majors, transport providers, aviation and shipping operators, industrial and agricultural users, and municipalities, and also offers electric vehicle charging services. Founded in 1948 and headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company was renamed from Neste Oil Oyj to Neste Oyj in June 2015 to reflect its strategic shift toward renewable fuels.
Within the global Energy sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing), Neste is notable for being one of the largest dedicated producers of renewable diesel made from waste and residue feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats, rather than food crops. Its renewable products segment has become a key growth area as aviation and road transport seek lower-emission alternatives to fossil fuels, positioning the company at the intersection of traditional refining and the energy transition.
- EU ReFuelEU Aviation mandate accelerates sustainable aviation fuel demand
- Renewable diesel margins track waste oil feedstock price spreads
- Singapore and Rotterdam refinery expansions scale renewable capacity
| Net Income: 2.45b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.81% < 20% (prev 13.93%; Δ 2.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 3.37b > Net Income 2.45b |
| Net Debt (3.71b) to EBITDA (4.10b): 0.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (768.1m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.61% > 18% (prev 7.23%; Δ 9.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 130.2% > 50% (prev 126.8%; Δ 3.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 25.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.16b / Interest Expense TTM 122.0m) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 8.91b - Total Current Liabilities 5.11b) / Total Assets 19.3b |
| B: 0.50 (Retained Earnings 9.71b / Total Assets 19.3b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 3.16b / Avg Total Assets 17.4b) |
| D: 0.97 (Book Value of Equity 9.51b / Total Liabilities 9.81b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.17 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 1.95b/1.48b, Revenue 22.7b/19.6b) |
| GMI: 0.44 (GM 7.23% / 16.61%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 22.7b / 19.6b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 2.45b - CFO 3.37b) / TA 19.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 27.67 with a total of 1,057,691 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.60%, over one month by -14.60%, over three months by -4.09% and over the past year by +60.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.00 (which is 6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Neste Oil has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 8.6321
P/E Forward = 10.1317
P/S = 0.9309
P/B = 2.2266
P/EG = 0.3183
Revenue TTM = 22.7b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.16b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 4.10b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.30b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 619.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.61b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 941.0m
Net Debt = 3.71b EUR (calculated: Debt 5.61b - CCE 1.90b)
Enterprise Value = 24.8b EUR (21.1b + Debt 5.61b - CCE 1.90b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.93 (Ebit TTM 3.16b / Interest Expense TTM 122.0m)
EV/FCF = 10.39x (Enterprise Value 24.8b / FCF TTM 2.39b)
FCF Yield = 9.63% (FCF TTM 2.39b / Enterprise Value 24.8b)
FCF Margin = 10.54% (FCF TTM 2.39b / Revenue TTM 22.7b)
Net Margin = 10.81% (Net Income TTM 2.45b / Revenue TTM 22.7b)
Gross Margin = 16.61% ((Revenue TTM 22.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.43% (prev 21.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 24.8b / Total Assets 19.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.18% (Interest Expense 122.0m / Debt 5.61b)
Taxrate = 19.51% (594.0m / 3.04b)
NOPAT = 2.55b (EBIT 3.16b * (1 - 19.51%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 8.91b / Total Current Liabilities 5.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.59 (Debt 5.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.51b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.91 (Net Debt 3.71b / EBITDA 4.10b)
Debt / FCF = 1.55 (Net Debt 3.71b / FCF TTM 2.39b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.25b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.07% (Net Income 2.45b / Total Assets 19.3b)
RoE = 29.70% (Net Income TTM 2.45b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.25b)
RoCE = 27.41% (EBIT 3.16b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.25b + L.T.Debt 3.30b))
RoIC = 18.57% (NOPAT 2.55b / Invested Capital 13.7b)
WACC = 6.02% (E(21.1b)/V(26.7b) * Re(7.16%) + D(5.61b)/V(26.7b) * Rd(2.18%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 23.00 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.67b ; Y1≈1.92b ; Y5≈2.83b
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.51 (EV 42.5b - Net Debt 3.71b = Equity 38.8b / Shares 768.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 3.20 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -50.51 | Revenue CAGR: -3.43% | SUE: 1.86 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=+17.92% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.92 | Chg30d=+16.17% | Revisions=+82% | GrowthEPS=+459.6% | GrowthRev=+23.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+7.81% | Revisions=+59% | GrowthEPS=-27.2% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +79% (up=28, down=2)