NESTE Stock Analysis: Neste Oil | HE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | HE, Finland | Market Cap: 23.479m EUR | 12M Return: 116.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 41.2M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -89.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company that produces and markets renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alongside conventional oil products such as diesel, gasoline, marine fuels, and specialty fuels. The company operates through three segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, and Marketing & Services, serving customers in Finland, the broader Nordic and Baltic regions, Europe, the United States, and other international markets. In addition to fuels, Neste markets lower-emission products, associated digital services, and electric vehicle charging solutions to consumers, transport providers, aviation, shipping, industrial, agricultural, municipal, and heating fuel customers.
Founded in 1948 and headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company was renamed from Neste Oil Oyj to Neste Oyj in June 2015, reflecting a strategic shift toward renewable fuels. As a player in the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, Nestes business model is distinctive within the traditional refining sector due to its significant investment in renewable drop-in fuels, which are produced from renewable raw materials and designed to replace fossil-based diesel and jet fuel without requiring engine modifications.
- RED III and ReFuelEU Aviation boost renewable diesel demand
- Renewable Products margins hinge on feedstock and biofuel spreads
- Rotterdam and Singapore refinery expansion lifts renewable capacity
| Net Income: 1.52b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.59% < 20% (prev 12.98%; Δ 2.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 2.26b > Net Income 1.52b |
| Net Debt (4.58b) to EBITDA (3.03b): 1.51 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (772.7m) vs 12m ago 7.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.89% > 18% (prev 6.65%; Δ 5.25% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 125.5% > 50% (prev 133.6%; Δ -8.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.10b / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m) |
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 7.25b - Total Current Liabilities 4.03b) / Total Assets 17.4b |
| B: 0.50 (Retained Earnings 8.68b / Total Assets 17.4b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 2.10b / Avg Total Assets 16.4b) |
| D: 0.95 (Book Value of Equity 8.46b / Total Liabilities 8.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.69 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 1.70b/1.31b, Revenue 20.6b/20.7b) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 6.65% / 11.89%) |
| AQI: 0.83 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 20.6b / 20.7b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 1.52b - CFO 2.26b) / TA 17.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.28 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 05, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 29.11 with a total of 1,074,431 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.82%, over one month by +4.41%, over three months by -3.93% and over the past year by +116.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.00 (which is 10.7% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Neste Oil has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 15.4343
P/E Forward = 9.6899
P/S = 1.1376
P/B = 2.8259
P/EG = 0.3183
Revenue TTM = 20.6b EUR
EBIT TTM = 2.10b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.03b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.47b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 452.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.67b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 972.0m
Net Debt = 4.58b EUR (calculated: Debt 5.67b - CCE 1.08b)
Enterprise Value = 28.1b EUR (23.5b + Debt 5.67b - CCE 1.08b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.41 (Ebit TTM 2.10b / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.69x (Enterprise Value 28.1b / FCF TTM 1.43b)
FCF Yield = 5.08% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Enterprise Value 28.1b)
FCF Margin = 6.91% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 20.6b)
Net Margin = 7.36% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Revenue TTM 20.6b)
Gross Margin = 11.89% ((Revenue TTM 20.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.43% (prev 16.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.61 (Enterprise Value 28.1b / Total Assets 17.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.98% (Interest Expense 169.0m / Debt 5.67b)
Taxrate = 21.02% (404.0m / 1.92b)
NOPAT = 1.66b (EBIT 2.10b * (1 - 21.02%))
Current Ratio = 1.80 (Total Current Assets 7.25b / Total Current Liabilities 4.03b)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 5.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.51 (Net Debt 4.58b / EBITDA 3.03b)
Debt / FCF = 3.22 (Net Debt 4.58b / FCF TTM 1.43b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.23% (Net Income 1.52b / Total Assets 17.4b)
RoE = 19.78% (Net Income TTM 1.52b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.68b)
RoCE = 18.81% (EBIT 2.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.68b + L.T.Debt 3.47b))
RoIC = 12.96% (NOPAT 1.66b / Invested Capital 12.8b)
WACC = 6.56% (E(23.5b)/V(29.1b) * Re(7.57%) + D(5.67b)/V(29.1b) * Rd(2.98%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 9.64 | Cagr: 0.26%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.01b ; Y1≈1.16b ; Y5≈1.70b
[DCF] Fair Price = 27.40 (EV 25.6b - Net Debt 4.58b = Equity 21.1b / Shares 768.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -89.56 | Revenue CAGR: -6.28% | SUE: -0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+39.10% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=+15.35% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+330.0% | GrowthRev=+13.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.22 | Chg30d=+9.66% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=-26.2% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +32% (up=11, down=5)