UPM Stock Analysis: UPM-Kymmene | HE
Paper & Paper Products | HE, Finland | Market Cap: 12.403m EUR | 12M Return: 12.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 29.8M
EPS Trend: -40.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -90.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a Finnish forest-based bioindustry company operating across seven business segments, including fibres, energy, adhesive materials, specialty papers, communication papers, plywood, and other operations. Its product portfolio spans pulp, sawn timber, renewable diesel and naphtha, plywood, veneer, biomedical products such as nano-fibrillar cellulose, wood-based lignin, and biochemicals designed to replace fossil-based raw materials. The company also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants.
UPM serves a diverse customer base including publishers, printing houses, converters, label manufacturers, brand owners, industrial users, and producers of tissue, board, and graphic papers. The integrated business model covers the full value chain from forestry services and wood sourcing to finished industrial and consumer-facing products, with vertically aligned activities such as forestry water protection and financial portfolio management.
As one of Europes largest diversified forest products companies, UPM represents the broader materials and paper products sector, where players are increasingly pivoting from traditional graphic papers toward higher-value specialty papers, packaging, biofuels, and biochemicals. Founded in 1871 and headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, the company has a long heritage in the Nordic pulp and paper industry, which benefits from extensive domestic forest resources.
- UPM Fibres pulp margins track Chinese demand and global supply discipline
- Nordic electricity prices drive UPM Energy earnings volatility
- Rotterdam biofuel refinery startup reshapes long-term capital allocation
| Net Income: 625.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.85% < 20% (prev 17.69%; Δ 0.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.16b > Net Income 625.0m |
| Net Debt (4.14b) to EBITDA (1.50b): 2.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (527.3m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.41% > 18% (prev 14.37%; Δ -8.97% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.52% > 50% (prev 56.08%; Δ -3.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.58 > 6 (EBIT TTM 948.0m / Interest Expense TTM 99.0m) |
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 4.41b - Total Current Liabilities 2.72b) / Total Assets 17.9b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 5.78b / Total Assets 17.9b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 948.0m / Avg Total Assets 18.0b) |
| D: 1.31 (Book Value of Equity 9.94b / Total Liabilities 7.60b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.40 = A |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 1.73b/1.77b, Revenue 9.47b/10.2b) |
| GMI: 2.66 (GM 14.37% / 5.41%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.35) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 9.47b / 10.2b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 625.0m - CFO 1.16b) / TA 17.9b) |
| Beneish M = -1.52 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 23.66 with a total of 1,139,537 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.81%, over one month by +1.37%, over three months by -6.67% and over the past year by +12.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.70 (which is 4.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
UPM-Kymmene has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 19.9322
P/E Forward = 12.0919
P/S = 1.3024
P/B = 1.2467
P/EG = 12.8895
Revenue TTM = 9.47b EUR
EBIT TTM = 948.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.50b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.84b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 231.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.64b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 772.0m
Net Debt = 4.14b EUR (calculated: Debt 4.64b - CCE 504.0m)
Enterprise Value = 16.5b EUR (12.4b + Debt 4.64b - CCE 504.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.58 (Ebit TTM 948.0m / Interest Expense TTM 99.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.91x (Enterprise Value 16.5b / FCF TTM 791.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.78% (FCF TTM 791.0m / Enterprise Value 16.5b)
FCF Margin = 8.35% (FCF TTM 791.0m / Revenue TTM 9.47b)
Net Margin = 6.60% (Net Income TTM 625.0m / Revenue TTM 9.47b)
Gross Margin = 5.41% ((Revenue TTM 9.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.97% (prev 13.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 16.5b / Total Assets 17.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.13% (Interest Expense 99.0m / Debt 4.64b)
Taxrate = 24.82% (211.0m / 850.0m)
NOPAT = 712.7m (EBIT 948.0m * (1 - 24.82%))
Current Ratio = 1.62 (Total Current Assets 4.41b / Total Current Liabilities 2.72b)
Debt / Equity = 0.47 (Debt 4.64b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.76 (Net Debt 4.14b / EBITDA 1.50b)
Debt / FCF = 5.23 (Net Debt 4.14b / FCF TTM 791.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.47% (Net Income 625.0m / Total Assets 17.9b)
RoE = 6.21% (Net Income TTM 625.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 10.1b)
RoCE = 7.34% (EBIT 948.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 10.1b + L.T.Debt 2.84b))
RoIC = 4.78% (NOPAT 712.7m / Invested Capital 14.9b)
WACC = 6.16% (E(12.4b)/V(17.0b) * Re(7.87%) + D(4.64b)/V(17.0b) * Rd(2.13%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -24.16 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.47% ; FCFF base≈790.2m ; Y1≈795.1m ; Y5≈845.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 17.09 (EV 13.2b - Net Debt 4.14b = Equity 9.01b / Shares 527.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -40.41 | EPS CAGR: -4.88% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -90.83 | Revenue CAGR: -4.50% | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-13.05% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-10.01% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+8.2% | GrowthRev=-1.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.84 | Chg30d=-7.97% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+27.7% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -47% (up=3, down=11)