ERG Stock Analysis: ERG S.p.A | MI
Utilities - Renewable | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 3.294m EUR | 12M Return: 18.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.39M
Rev. Trend: 85.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ERG S.p.A. is an Italian independent power producer that generates electricity from renewable sources, with operations across ten countries spanning Europe and the United States. Its generation portfolio spans wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric plants, supplemented by natural gas cogeneration, reflecting a diversified mix typical of independent power producers seeking to balance capacity, dispatchability, and exposure to renewable energy markets. Headquartered in Genoa and founded in 1938, the company operates as a subsidiary of Sq Renewables S.p.A.
- PUN power prices in Italy drive merchant renewable revenues
- New wind capacity in Italy and France expands generation EBITDA
- EU Green Deal incentives and Italian auctions support pipeline growth
| Net Income: 153.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.19% < 20% (prev 39.73%; Δ -9.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 839.1m > Net Income 153.0m |
| Net Debt (-193.0m) to EBITDA (672.1m): -0.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.4m) vs 12m ago -0.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.28% > 50% (prev 13.88%; Δ 5.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.55 > 6 (EBIT TTM 318.1m / Interest Expense TTM 69.9m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 809.5m - Total Current Liabilities 462.2m) / Total Assets 5.62b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 1.97b / Total Assets 5.62b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 318.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.97b) |
| D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 2.04b / Total Liabilities 3.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.49 = A |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 21.78 with a total of 315,963 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.54%, over one month by -7.24%, over three months by +0.06% and over the past year by +18.63%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.70 (which is 5% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
ERG S.p.A has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 30.2133
P/E Forward = 33.0033
P/S = 4.2466
P/B = 1.6065
P/EG = 0.9428
Revenue TTM = 1.15b EUR
EBIT TTM = 318.1m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 672.1m EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.14b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 223.9m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 251.0m EUR (Leases only: 251.0m)
Net Debt = -193.0m EUR (calculated: Debt 251.0m - CCE 444.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.10b EUR (3.29b + Debt 251.0m - CCE 444.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.55 (Ebit TTM 318.1m / Interest Expense TTM 69.9m)
EV/FCF = 13.37x (Enterprise Value 3.10b / FCF TTM 231.9m)
FCF Yield = 7.48% (FCF TTM 231.9m / Enterprise Value 3.10b)
FCF Margin = 20.15% (FCF TTM 231.9m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Net Margin = 13.29% (Net Income TTM 153.0m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.55 (Enterprise Value 3.10b / Total Assets 5.62b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 27.83% (Interest Expense 69.9m / Debt 251.0m)
Taxrate = 25.40% (63.5m / 249.9m)
NOPAT = 237.3m (EBIT 318.1m * (1 - 25.40%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 809.5m / Total Current Liabilities 462.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 251.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.29 (Net Debt -193.0m / EBITDA 672.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.83 (Net Debt -193.0m / FCF TTM 231.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.02b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.56% (Net Income 153.0m / Total Assets 5.62b)
RoE = 7.58% (Net Income TTM 153.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.02b)
RoCE = 7.66% (EBIT 318.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.02b + L.T.Debt 2.14b))
RoIC = 4.46% (NOPAT 237.3m / Invested Capital 5.32b)
WACC = 7.82% (E(3.29b)/V(3.54b) * Re(6.83%) + D(251.0m)/V(3.54b) * Rd(27.83%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -53.79 | Cagr: -0.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈209.7m ; Y1≈240.3m ; Y5≈353.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 37.95 (EV 5.32b - Net Debt -193.0m = Equity 5.52b / Shares 145.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
Revenue Correlation: 85.70 | Revenue CAGR: 11.52% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=+2.63% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=+4.11% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+0.9% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)