ERG Stock Analysis: ERG S.p.A | MI
Utilities - Renewable | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 3.169m EUR | 12M Return: 1.4% | IT0001157020 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.50M
Rev. Trend: 55.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ERG S.p.A. is an Italian renewable energy producer headquartered in Genoa, operating across multiple European countries as well as the United States. The company generates electricity from wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, and also operates natural gas cogeneration facilities. Founded in 1938, ERG is classified within the Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders sub-industry of the Utilities sector and trades on the Milan Stock Exchange. Its parent company is Sq Renewables S.p.A., which controls the groups operations.
As a pure-play renewable energy operator, ERG is part of a sector focused on the transition away from fossil fuels toward low-carbon electricity generation, with wind power typically serving as a cornerstone technology for established European players in this space. Its diversified geographic footprint across 11 countries provides exposure to varied regulatory frameworks and renewable energy support schemes across the European and U.S. markets.
- Wind power capacity expansion across European markets boosts generation output
- Merchant power price volatility in Italy pressures EBITDA margins
- UK offshore wind ramp-up drives segment revenue growth
- Capital recycling through asset divestitures funds solar pipeline development
| Net Income: 139.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.39% < 20% (prev 29.27%; Δ -5.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 768.4m > Net Income 139.3m |
| Net Debt (2.44b) to EBITDA (636.9m): 3.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.4m) vs 12m ago -1.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.78% > 18% (prev 67.82%; Δ 1.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 20.78% > 50% (prev 19.07%; Δ 1.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 361.3m / Interest Expense TTM 92.9m) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 760.3m - Total Current Liabilities 485.0m) / Total Assets 5.63b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 322.2m / Total Assets 5.63b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 361.3m / Avg Total Assets 5.67b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 1.89b / Total Liabilities 3.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.47 = BB |
| DSRI: 2.06 (Receivables 255.0m/114.6m, Revenue 1.18b/1.09b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 67.82% / 69.78%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 1.18b / 1.09b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 139.3m - CFO 768.4m) / TA 5.63b) |
| Beneish M = -2.13 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 21.78 with a total of 201,367 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.63%, over one month by -2.07%, over three months by -0.27% and over the past year by +1.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.10 (which is 3.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
ERG S.p.A has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 39.6364
P/E Forward = 33.0033
P/S = 4.0908
P/B = 1.7032
P/EG = 0.9428
Revenue TTM = 1.18b EUR
EBIT TTM = 361.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 636.9m EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 250.3m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.91b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 245.0m
Net Debt = 2.44b EUR (calculated: Debt 2.91b - CCE 471.9m)
Enterprise Value = 5.61b EUR (3.17b + Debt 2.91b - CCE 471.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.89 (Ebit TTM 361.3m / Interest Expense TTM 92.9m)
EV/FCF = 10.57x (Enterprise Value 5.61b / FCF TTM 530.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.46% (FCF TTM 530.9m / Enterprise Value 5.61b)
FCF Margin = 45.10% (FCF TTM 530.9m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Net Margin = 11.83% (Net Income TTM 139.3m / Revenue TTM 1.18b)
Gross Margin = 69.78% ((Revenue TTM 1.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 355.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.03% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 5.61b / Total Assets 5.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.19% (Interest Expense 92.9m / Debt 2.91b)
Taxrate = 18.40% (43.5m / 236.2m)
NOPAT = 294.9m (EBIT 361.3m * (1 - 18.40%))
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 760.3m / Total Current Liabilities 485.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.54 (Debt 2.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.84 (Net Debt 2.44b / EBITDA 636.9m)
Debt / FCF = 4.60 (Net Debt 2.44b / FCF TTM 530.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.98b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.46% (Net Income 139.3m / Total Assets 5.63b)
RoE = 7.02% (Net Income TTM 139.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.98b)
RoCE = 8.68% (EBIT 361.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.98b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 5.52% (NOPAT 294.9m / Invested Capital 5.34b)
WACC = 4.74% (E(3.17b)/V(6.08b) * Re(6.71%) + D(2.91b)/V(6.08b) * Rd(3.19%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 6.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -50.80 | Cagr: -0.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈468.6m ; Y1≈537.1m ; Y5≈790.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 65.04 (EV 11.9b - Net Debt 2.44b = Equity 9.45b / Shares 145.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
Revenue Correlation: 55.50 | Revenue CAGR: 1.46% | SUE: 1.47 | # QB: 1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=-3.05% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.5% | GrowthRev=+10.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.7% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=0, down=0)