ERG Stock Analysis: ERG S.p.A | MI
Utilities - Renewable | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 3.239m EUR | 12M Return: 15% | IT0001157020 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.31M
Rev. Trend: 73.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ERG S.p.A. is an Italian independent power producer that generates electricity from renewable sources, with operations across ten countries spanning Europe and the United States. Its generation portfolio spans wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric plants, supplemented by natural gas cogeneration, reflecting a diversified mix typical of independent power producers seeking to balance capacity, dispatchability, and exposure to renewable energy markets. Headquartered in Genoa and founded in 1938, the company operates as a subsidiary of Sq Renewables S.p.A.
- PUN power prices in Italy drive merchant renewable revenues
- New wind capacity in Italy and France expands generation EBITDA
- EU Green Deal incentives and Italian auctions support pipeline growth
| Net Income: 78.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.45% < 20% (prev 29.15%; Δ -11.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 800.4m > Net Income 78.3m |
| Net Debt (-80.6m) to EBITDA (519.8m): -0.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.4m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 16.70% > 50% (prev 19.15%; Δ -2.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM 244.3m / Interest Expense TTM 69.9m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 799.2m - Total Current Liabilities 634.1m) / Total Assets 5.63b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 322.2m / Total Assets 5.63b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 244.3m / Avg Total Assets 5.67b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 1.89b / Total Liabilities 3.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.21 = BB |
| DSRI: 2.22 (Receivables 132.5m/69.0m, Revenue 946.2m/1.09b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 98.63% / 95.40%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 946.2m / 1.09b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 78.3m - CFO 800.4m) / TA 5.63b) |
| Beneish M = -2.11 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of September 13, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 22.22 with a total of 189,801 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.09%, over one month by -0.18%, over three months by -7.03% and over the past year by +15.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.60 (which is 2.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
ERG S.p.A has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 39.0877
P/E Forward = 33.0033
P/S = 4.1808
P/B = 1.717
P/EG = 0.9428
Revenue TTM = 946.2m EUR
EBIT TTM = 244.3m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 519.8m EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.18b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 245.0m EUR (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 245.0m EUR (Leases only: 245.0m)
Net Debt = -80.6m EUR (calculated: Debt 245.0m - CCE 325.5m)
Enterprise Value = 3.16b EUR (3.24b + Debt 245.0m - CCE 325.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.50 (Ebit TTM 244.3m / Interest Expense TTM 69.9m)
EV/FCF = 10.13x (Enterprise Value 3.16b / FCF TTM 311.7m)
FCF Yield = 9.87% (FCF TTM 311.7m / Enterprise Value 3.16b)
FCF Margin = 32.94% (FCF TTM 311.7m / Revenue TTM 946.2m)
Net Margin = 8.28% (Net Income TTM 78.3m / Revenue TTM 946.2m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 946.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 43.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.56 (Enterprise Value 3.16b / Total Assets 5.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 28.52% (Interest Expense 69.9m / Debt 245.0m)
Taxrate = 28.19% (43.5m / 154.2m)
NOPAT = 175.4m (EBIT 244.3m * (1 - 28.19%))
Current Ratio = 1.26 (Total Current Assets 799.2m / Total Current Liabilities 634.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 245.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.16 (Net Debt -80.6m / EBITDA 519.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.26 (Net Debt -80.6m / FCF TTM 311.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.98b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.38% (Net Income 78.3m / Total Assets 5.63b)
RoE = 3.95% (Net Income TTM 78.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.98b)
RoCE = 5.87% (EBIT 244.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.98b + L.T.Debt 2.18b))
RoIC = 3.39% (NOPAT 175.4m / Invested Capital 5.18b)
WACC = 7.85% (E(3.24b)/V(3.48b) * Re(6.90%) + D(245.0m)/V(3.48b) * Rd(28.52%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -53.79 | Cagr: -0.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈287.1m ; Y1≈329.1m ; Y5≈484.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.70 (EV 7.29b - Net Debt -80.6m = Equity 7.37b / Shares 145.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
Revenue Correlation: 73.33 | Revenue CAGR: 9.48% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+2.45% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.4% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)