BSRR Stock Analysis: Sierra Bancorp | NASDAQ

Deposit Accounts, Commercial Lending, Digital Banking, Payment Processing

Total Rating 64

Safety 62

Buy Signal 0.50

Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +1.3

Market Cap: 545M
Avg Turnover: 3.66M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility23.6%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.75%

VaR vs Median-3.53%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.58

Rel. Str. IBD81.9

Rel. Str. Peer Group80.8 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.732

Beta Downside0.598

Hurst Exponent0.480

Choppyness36.4%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD29.07%

CAGR/Max DD1.16

CAGR/Mean DD3.75

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 18.38%
EPS Trend: 97.3%

Last SUE: 3.38
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.12%
Rev. Trend: 95.1%

Last SUE: 0.77
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026

Jan +1.5% 0

Feb +0.5% 0

Mar -6.3% 14

Apr -2.4% 14

May +0.4% 14

Jun +2.5% 28

Jul -0.0% 0

Aug -0.5% 14

Sep -4.6% 28

Oct -2.0% 4

Nov +3.8% 100

Dec +0.3% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.

Description: BSRR Sierra Bancorp

Sierra Bancorp is the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra, serving individuals and businesses in California. It offers deposit accounts and loans for real estate, commercial, agricultural, mortgage warehouse, and consumer needs, alongside digital banking, payment, and payroll services.

As a regional bank, it combines deposit-taking with lending to households and businesses. Founded in 1977, Sierra Bancorp is headquartered in Porterville, California.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Deposit repricing and Federal Reserve cuts pressure net interest margins
California agriculture and commercial real estate drive credit risk
Mortgage warehouse and business lending growth supports loan revenue

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0

Net Income: 50.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.35 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.07k% < 20% (prev -1.28k%; Δ 204.0% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 89.4m > Net Income 50.6m
Net Debt (-726.9m) to EBITDA (69.1m): -10.52 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.32 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago -5.50% < -2%
Gross Margin: 78.82% > 18% (prev 69.63%; Δ 9.19% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.41% > 50% (prev 5.10%; Δ 0.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 67.0m / Interest Expense TTM 43.0m)

Altman Z'' -3.34

A: -0.58 (Total Current Assets 1.00b - Total Current Liabilities 3.15b) / Total Assets 3.68b
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 295.7m / Total Assets 3.68b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 67.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.69b)
D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 361.7m / Total Liabilities 3.31b)
Altman-Z'' = -3.34 = D

What is the price of BSRR shares?

As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 42.14 with a total of 69,379 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.31%, over one month by +7.38%, over three months by +6.49% and over the past year by +48.08%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.70 (which is 3.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is BSRR a buy, sell or hold?

Sierra Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BSRR.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BSRR price?

Analysts Target Price	45.1	7.1%

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 544.7m (544.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.0553
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 3.4565
P/B = 1.5291
P/EG = 1.4318
Revenue TTM = 199.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 67.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 69.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 120.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 165.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 273.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 23.1m
Net Debt = -726.9m USD (calculated: Debt 273.9m - CCE 1.00b)
Enterprise Value = 544.7m USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.56 (Ebit TTM 67.0m / Interest Expense TTM 43.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.07x (Enterprise Value 544.7m / FCF TTM 89.7m)
FCF Yield = 16.46% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Enterprise Value 544.7m)
FCF Margin = 44.86% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Revenue TTM 199.9m)
Net Margin = 25.32% (Net Income TTM 50.6m / Revenue TTM 199.9m)
Gross Margin = 78.82% ((Revenue TTM 199.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 42.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.14% (prev 74.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 544.7m / Total Assets 3.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.70% (Interest Expense 43.0m / Debt 273.9m)
Taxrate = 24.37% (16.3m / 66.9m)
NOPAT = 50.6m (EBIT 67.0m * (1 - 24.37%))
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 1.00b / Total Current Liabilities 3.15b)
Debt / Equity = 0.76 (Debt 273.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 361.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -10.52 (Net Debt -726.9m / EBITDA 69.1m)
Debt / FCF = -8.10 (Net Debt -726.9m / FCF TTM 89.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 364.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 50.6m / Total Assets 3.68b)
RoE = 13.89% (Net Income TTM 50.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 364.3m)
RoCE = 13.80% (EBIT 67.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 364.3m + L.T.Debt 120.7m))
RoIC = 7.44% (NOPAT 50.6m / Invested Capital 680.5m)
WACC = 9.36% (E(544.7m)/V(818.6m) * Re(8.10%) + D(273.9m)/V(818.6m) * Rd(15.70%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.68 | Cagr: -4.64%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.76% ; FCFF base≈70.0m ; Y1≈80.3m ; Y5≈118.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 172.4 (EV 1.51b - Net Debt -726.9m = Equity 2.24b / Shares 13.0m; r=9.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.26 | EPS CAGR: 18.38% | SUE: 3.38 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 95.09 | Revenue CAGR: 6.12% | SUE: 0.77 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=+5.29% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.79 | Chg30d=+6.76% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+21.9% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.94 | Chg30d=+4.18% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -30% (up=2, down=5)