NBTB Stock Analysis: NBT Bancorp | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.614m USD | 12M Return: 18.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Consumer Loans, Wealth Management, Insurance
Total Rating 40
Safety 60
Buy Signal 0.19
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 2.61B
Avg Turnover: 16.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility28.7%
VaR 5th Pctl4.53%
VaR vs Median-4.27%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.63
Rel. Str. IBD63.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group35.3
Character TTM
Beta0.658
Beta Downside0.683
Hurst Exponent0.426
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD25.67%
CAGR/Max DD0.74
CAGR/Mean DD1.55
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of NBTB over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.95, "2021-09": 0.9, "2021-12": 0.86, "2022-03": 0.9, "2022-06": 0.88, "2022-09": 0.9, "2022-12": 0.86, "2023-03": 0.88, "2023-06": 0.8, "2023-09": 0.84, "2023-12": 0.72, "2024-03": 0.68, "2024-06": 0.69, "2024-09": 0.8, "2024-12": 0.77, "2025-03": 0.77, "2025-06": 0.44, "2025-09": 1.05, "2025-12": 1.05, "2026-03": 0.97,
EPS CAGR: -1.06%
EPS Trend: -12.7%
Last SUE: -0.28
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of NBTB over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 122.697, 2021-09: 121.838, 2021-12: 129.462, 2022-03: 126.476, 2022-06: 132.382, 2022-09: 135.837, 2022-12: 142.306, 2023-03: 144.746, 2023-06: 151.943, 2023-09: 176.761, 2023-12: 188.899, 2024-03: 191.776, 2024-06: 193.283, 2024-09: 201.444, 2024-12: 199.486, 2025-03: 201.197, 2025-06: 224.02, 2025-09: 238.774, 2025-12: 238.248, 2026-03: 232.782,
Rev. CAGR: 17.58%
Rev. Trend: 97.9%
Last SUE: 0.74
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -0.8% 16
Feb -0.5% 13
Mar -5.6% 16
Apr -0.8% 6
May +1.6% 17
Jun -0.1% 0
Jul +1.1% 8
Aug -3.5% 23
Sep -3.4% 40
Oct +2.5% 6
Nov +3.3% 21
Dec -1.6% 6

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NBTB NBT Bancorp

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is a U.S. financial holding company that provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services through its Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. Its offerings span deposit products (checking, savings, money market, and CDs), a broad loan portfolio (consumer, mortgage, commercial, agricultural, and indirect auto loans), trust and investment services, insurance products, retirement plan recordkeeping, and digital banking channels. Founded in 1856 and headquartered in Norwich, New York, the company operates in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central and northwestern Connecticut, serving retail, commercial, and municipal customers.

As a mid-cap regional bank, NBTB operates a traditional community banking model, generating the majority of revenue from net interest income on its loan and deposit activities, supplemented by fee-based wealth management, insurance, and retirement administration services. Its geographic footprint across northern New England and the northeastern U.S. reflects a community-focused lending approach typical of regional banks, which tend to compete on local relationships rather than scale.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin trends on Fed rate path
  • Commercial real estate loan concentration in Northeast markets
  • Wealth management and retirement plan fees expand
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 183.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.15 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 3.61% < 20% (prev -1.43k%; Δ 1.43k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 246.3m > Net Income 183.6m
Net Debt (145.8m) to EBITDA (262.5m): 0.56 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.29 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.4m) vs 12m ago 11.13% < -2%
Gross Margin: 74.54% > 18% (prev 71.27%; Δ 3.27% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.21% > 50% (prev 5.74%; Δ 0.47% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 238.9m / Interest Expense TTM 210.6m)
Altman Z'' 0.51
A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 151.6m - Total Current Liabilities 117.8m) / Total Assets 16.2b
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.23b / Total Assets 16.2b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 238.9m / Avg Total Assets 15.0b)
D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 1.91b / Total Liabilities 14.3b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.51 = B
What is the price of NBTB shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.63 with a total of 368,096 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.94%, over one month by +7.33%, over three months by +13.73% and over the past year by +18.58%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 48.30 (which is 2.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is NBTB a buy, sell or hold?

NBT Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NBTB.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NBTB price?
Analysts Target Price 50.4 1.6%
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 03 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.61b (2.61b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.1949
P/E Forward = 13.4048
P/S = 3.752
P/B = 1.3652
P/EG = 2.6616
Revenue TTM = 933.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 238.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 262.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 179.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 117.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 297.4m USD (corrected: LT Debt 179.6m + ST Debt 117.8m)
Net Debt = 145.8m USD (calculated: Debt 297.4m - CCE 151.6m)
Enterprise Value = 2.76b USD (2.61b + Debt 297.4m - CCE 151.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.13 (Ebit TTM 238.9m / Interest Expense TTM 210.6m)
EV/FCF = 11.73x (Enterprise Value 2.76b / FCF TTM 235.3m)
FCF Yield = 8.53% (FCF TTM 235.3m / Enterprise Value 2.76b)
FCF Margin = 25.19% (FCF TTM 235.3m / Revenue TTM 933.8m)
Net Margin = 19.66% (Net Income TTM 183.6m / Revenue TTM 933.8m)
Gross Margin = 74.54% ((Revenue TTM 933.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 237.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.86% (prev 76.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.17 (Enterprise Value 2.76b / Total Assets 16.2b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 70.80% (Interest Expense 210.6m / Debt 297.4m)
 Taxrate = 23.13% (55.3m / 238.9m)
NOPAT = 183.6m (EBIT 238.9m * (1 - 23.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 151.6m / Total Current Liabilities 117.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 297.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.91b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.56 (Net Debt 145.8m / EBITDA 262.5m)
Debt / FCF = 0.62 (Net Debt 145.8m / FCF TTM 235.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.22% (Net Income 183.6m / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = 9.83% (Net Income TTM 183.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
RoCE = 11.67% (EBIT 238.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 179.6m))
RoIC = 1.14% (NOPAT 183.6m / Invested Capital 16.2b)
WACC = 7.45% (E(2.61b)/V(2.91b) * Re(8.30%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 23.00 | Cagr: 4.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈213.5m ; Y1≈244.7m ; Y5≈360.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 101.4 (EV 5.42b - Net Debt 145.8m = Equity 5.27b / Shares 52.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -12.67 | EPS CAGR: -1.06% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.87 | Revenue CAGR: 17.58% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-10% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.17 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+9.1% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -15% (up=10, down=14)